HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 If the shoe fits Ya betta watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well... So much for the sexy Euro fantasies of yesterday. I certainly won't chase that Novemberish-looking deformity in the Gulf-- the one with the actual weather hundreds of miles from the "center" ("center" in quotes). I'm not denying it's a threat to LA or that the rains might be devastating, but since I'm not in the business of chasing destruction, there's really not a whole lot to excite me about this one. When are we going to get a red-meat, chaseable specimen? I'm getting impatient. Irene was OK, whatever-- but, c'mon-- an unraveling Cat 1 hitting the NC Outer Banks is not exactly what I fantasize about on the off-season. Grrr. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The Hugo storm menaces the Southeast US in about 12 days. We all wanted a Texas drought ending storm, but lets be real, Texas won't have a season in 2011. maybe 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The Hugo storm menaces the Southeast US in about 12 days. We all wanted a Texas drought ending storm, but lets be real, Texas won't have a season in 2011. maybe 2012. You mean El Niño 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 The Hugo storm menaces the Southeast US in about 12 days. Twelve days seems forever right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 By the way... I very much like the name Maria-- think it's worthy of a big, nasty, Hugo-esque, landfalling Cat 4-- and therefore I'll be mighty irritated if it's wasted on that crap N of Bermuda. (I assume the other piece of crap-- that deformity in the Gulf-- will be called Lee.) Just an FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 By the way... I very much like the name Maria-- think it's worthy of a big, nasty, Hugo-esque, landfalling Cat 4-- and therefore I'll be mighty irritated if it's wasted on that crap N of Bermuda. (I assume the other piece of crap-- that deformity in the Gulf-- will be called Lee.) Just an FYI. If 94L gets upgraded at 5am, it will likely go straight to TS and thus be called Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 If 94L gets upgraded at 5am, it will likely go straight to TS and thus be called Lee. And then Maria gets wasted on the Gulf deformity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 And then Maria gets wasted on the Gulf deformity. Hey beggars can't be choosers, and I thought Adam and I gave you plenty of warning... don't fall for the cheap thrills of the ECWMF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hey beggars can't be choosers, and I thought Adam and I gave you plenty of warning... don't fall for the cheap thrills of the ECWMF You fell for it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm just not happy with the cyclones this season. We're already up to K-- and probably L by later this morning-- and so far the best we could do was a minimal Cat 3 (Irene) and one other sheared, minimal Cat 1 (Katia). C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Havin' some peak-season blooz. Hangin' my hopes on 95L and that Gulf model fantasy. <sigh> Gimme somethin'-- anythin'. Heeeeelp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Think of the bright side, youll have some cash left over to chase an Aussie TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Think of the bright side, youll have some cash left over to chase an Aussie TC Imagine if you and I get to chase one together this coming season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Maybe about time to change the description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Maybe about time to change the description. Maybe you're right. 96L is kind of interesting, and some of the modeling is rather... sexy. Not sure what to make of future Maria (TD 14). It seems to have more potential than Katia-- but that's hardly saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Too bad all the mid Texas coast research has gone to waste this year, but there is always Brownsville, and really, for future DVD sales, everyone wants Florida or (I know you hate it) the Northeast Megalopolis, Los Fresnos, close enough to BRO for serious action? Lakes, lovers, palm trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 96L is looking pretty good tonight. Looks like it could be a hawt microcane. Jorge would like that-- he owes his parents in Tampico a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 96L is looking pretty good tonight. Looks like it could be a hawt microcane. Jorge would like that-- he owes his parents in Tampico a visit. Hey when you guys are done chasing Nate, maybe you guys will have enough time to get to Florida for Maria's impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hey when you guys are done chasing Nate, maybe you guys will have enough time to get to Florida for Maria's impact Wow-- that would be crazy. I guess we'd have to choose which one was hawter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 So that Gulf disturbance is evolving nicely-- will be named Nate at 5 pm EDT. And it seems the models are starting to converge on a landfall in MX-- perhaps around Tampico (give or take a few hundred mi). Just getting some slight tingles from this. That's Jorge's hometown. Given this, he better not be trying to get out of this one. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm just not happy with the cyclones this season. We're already up to K-- and probably L by later this morning-- and so far the best we could do was a minimal Cat 3 (Irene) and one other sheared, minimal Cat 1 (Katia). C'mon. I was waiting for this post and just posted the same in SNE. the year of the TS not cane although Katia was a 3 for a while? Lack of heat content? NINA? probably will be a good year for a Caribbean OCT storm into Jamaica. These BOC blahs into Mexico horseback country are Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 I was waiting for this post and just posted the same in SNE. the year of the TS not cane although Katia was a 3 for a while? Lack of heat content? NINA? probably will be a good year for a Caribbean OCT storm into Jamaica. These BOC blahs into Mexico horseback country are Meh. Yeah, the average quality is just mega-low this year. It's weird. But I'm somewhat optimistic about Nate. I like BoC cyclones-- the way they can just spin up all of a sudden-- and MX landfalls are cool by me. It's tougher chase turf for an American dude, for sure-- but they get high-quality, Grade-A landfalls down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The Phil-cast is made to order for i-Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 12Z GFS would be the ultimate C***tease, just meanders for a week, unlikely but a chasers nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 If one is an Anglophile... 12UTC 11.09.2011 22.1N 96.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2011 22.2N 98.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 GFDL and Ukie are a direct Tampico hit (Don's and Phil's forecast ditto), HWRF is a tad north, but with Sern eyewall over Tampico, Euro is a tad south, but with Nern eyewall brushing Tampico... CMC is a bit late to the party, but has a landfall near or just N of Tampico... The GFS... oh well, wants to party at Popo's beach house, but changes it's mind and heads for Tampico, Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 GFDL and Ukie are a direct Tampico hit (Don's and Phil's forecast ditto), HWRF is a tad north, but with Sern eyewall over Tampico, Euro is a tad south, but with Nern eyewall brushing Tampico... CMC is a bit late to the party, but has a landfall near or just N of Tampico... The GFS... oh well, wants to party at Popo's beach house, but changes it's mind and heads for Tampico, Illinois. Can one catch 23 pound redfish in the surf in Tampico? Better Tampico than Louisiana, for chase reasons and lighter winds, and from an Easterly versus a Northerly or Northeasterly direction. Just when things like the GFS showing less than 0.4 inches in the next 15 days and the 384 GEFS means look like tomorrow's, and I almost get depressed, I see the silver lining in a Mexico landfall (and chase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 The Phil-cast is made to order for i-Cyclone. Totally-- I felt like he made it just to see my reaction. 12Z GFS would be the ultimate C***tease, just meanders for a week, unlikely but a chasers nightmare. Ugh, could you imagine? That would drive me nuts. Most here are expecting the cyclone to move a little more resolutely than that, fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Definitely having some increased tingles tonight. Jorge and I have been having some preliminary discussions Re: meeting in MTY and heading down to TAM together-- just like we did for Alex. In other news, I am picking up this tomorrow: http://www.sony-asia.com/product/spk-cxb. I have now killed three cameras on chases due to water exposure: Dean 2007, Jimena 2009, and Irene 2011. Scott really yelled at me about it today on the phone-- really went off-- so I did some research, and this is the solution. No more water worries-- yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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