Srain Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 MIMIC is clearly showing some improvement this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Not much change in the 18z GFS. Around Chetumal and across towards Veracruz. Reflects much better in the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Shear has definitely decreased...bout of strong convection over the center, it might be the start of a CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 On 8/3/2012 at 9:48 PM, Srain said: MIMIC is clearly showing some improvement this afternoon... Agreed, Steve-- you can really see the improvement today via various views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 On 8/3/2012 at 11:07 PM, wxmx said: Shear has definitely decreased...bout of strong convection over the center, it might be the start of a CDO. Troublemaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 No real change in the 18z GFDL. Across Jamaica, Western Cuba and end of the run looks due N towards the Florida panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 With a grain of salt---along with many other grains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 There probably won't be much of a change but the overall guidance has shifted further W towards the YP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 2:31 AM, Scott747 said: There probably won't be much of a change but the overall guidance has shifted further W towards the YP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 2:34 AM, HurricaneJosh said: Disco covers all the dynamics we talked about on our latest call a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 0z GFS is giving subtle hints of feeling the weakness seen in the other models. Reflects it better in the Caribbean compared to previous runs but still takes it across the lower YP and eventually towards Veracruz/Tampico. *edit* Tampico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 4:27 AM, Scott747 said: 0z GFS is giving subtle hints of feeling the weakness seen in the other models. Reflects it better in the Caribbean compared to previous runs but still takes it across the lower YP and eventually towards Veracruz. So there's a decent Yucatan/Yucatan Channel consensus, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 4:30 AM, HurricaneJosh said: So there's a decent Yucatan/Yucatan Channel consensus, it seems. I wouldn't go that far. Big difference on trajectory with major impacts on eventual path. Like we talked about this isn't the classical 'cruiser' where we sit back and watch it just plow towards the YP. 'Channel' would suggest a more pronounced move towards the N/NW as it approaches the YP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 4:47 AM, Scott747 said: I wouldn't go that far. Big difference on trajectory with major impacts on eventual path. Like we talked about this isn't the classical 'cruiser' where we sit back and watch it just plow towards the YP. 'Channel' would suggest a more pronounced move towards the N/NW as it approaches the YP. Yes, Mr. Cheney. Cut me some slack, will ya? Question for me: is it Yucatan or Mainland MX (Tampico/Veracruz) or USA (TX/LA)? I imagine this will become clearer over the next 24 hr. If I do head to the Yucatan, I'm probably going to want to leave Sunday. I'm going for dinner with a friend. You up later, Oh Wise One? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 4:50 AM, HurricaneJosh said: Yes, Mr. Cheney. Cut me some slack, will ya? Question for me: is it Yucatan or Mainland MX (Tampico/Veracruz) or USA (TX/LA)? I imagine this will become clearer over the next 24 hr. If I do head to the Yucatan, I'm probably going to want to leave Sunday. I'm going for dinner with a friend. You up later, Oh Wise One? Possible Ms. Waters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Rumor has it Scott's biological clock/circadian rhythms wake him up around 2 am CDT (midnight Cali time) to see latest Euro op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 0z GFDL moves towards the W underneath Jamaica and through the straits. As mentioned earlier the modeling this evening has shifted towards the W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 A Yucatan chase is looking more and more likely. Things just seem to be moving inexorably in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 10:08 AM, HurricaneJosh said: A Yucatan chase is looking more and more likely. Things just seem to be moving inexorably in that direction. My gut, the second Mexican landfall will be far more impressive, assuming it doesn't go so far South it gets little time over water. I'd be thinking Tampico-ish. ETA: GFDL initialized 8 mb too strong might affect model solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Overall guidance continues shifting S and W. NHC continues giving weight to the GFDL/HWRF so not sure how much they will adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 GFS initialized a tad too weak, and at 6 hours is going to be (looks like) at least 5 mb too weak. So I don't trust it. I prefer the 6Z GFS, generally. I still suspect Northern Veracruz or Southern Tamaulipas will be where the most intense landfall will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 12z GFDL is much further W mid term. Still turns it N at the end of the run. First sign that it's moving towards the rest of the models and could have an impact on the next update depending on what the Euro shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 OK, cool. Like you said, Scott, the track looks to be behaving, it's the intensity that's a concern. But I'm not too worried about the "weakening" today. The storm was in the process of reorganizing. I think it'll ramp up today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 6:53 PM, HurricaneJosh said: OK, cool. Like you said, Scott, the track looks to be behaving, it's the intensity that's a concern. But I'm not too worried about the "weakening" today. The storm was in the process of reorganizing. I think it'll ramp up today and tonight. Everything still looks good. Avila put down the GFDL/HWRF idea. Quit dissing me on Avila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 On 8/4/2012 at 8:45 PM, Scott747 said: Everything still looks good. Avila put down the GFDL/HWRF idea. Quit dissing me on Avila. I have to admit, I've been kind of into Avila with this storm. I like his cool, deadpan dismissal of the naysayer models-- it's hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 18z throws a little wrinkle in post YP. A bit N or Tampico with a WNW/NW heading out of the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 4, 2012 Author Share Posted August 4, 2012 The latest: http://icyclone.com/now/2012/aug/04-august-2012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 Well you said not to say anything negative so I have nothing to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 5, 2012 Share Posted August 5, 2012 I think the cyclone team may want to reconsider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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