Some Summer and Winter Pairings

[SnowGoose69]

The 1993-94 winter had a similar dividing line snow wise....much of S. Jersey saw less than 12" of snow that winter....while northern sections of NYC measured close to five feet.

The two February events that came in a 3 day period produced virtually nothing as close as places such as Red Bank/Matawan which saw basically sleet and freezing rain out of both storms while even JFK saw a solid 15 inches total from both systems....the 2/11 storm had a remarkable gradient across Queens with JFK seeing mainly sleet from noon onward while LGA was all snow.

[A-L-E-X]

The two February events that came in a 3 day period produced virtually nothing as close as places such as Red Bank/Matawan which saw basically sleet and freezing rain out of both storms while even JFK saw a solid 15 inches total from both systems....the 2/11 storm had a remarkable gradient across Queens with JFK seeing mainly sleet from noon onward while LGA was all snow.

The funny thing was even with all that sleet at JFK on 2/11.... they still got over 10" How much did LGA get? 13"? We got like 8 inches from what I recall from the first system and 11 inches from the second system. I think the fact that they occurred in February when the water is at its coldest is why we still got a lot of snow at the coast that winter.

[SnowGoose69]

The funny thing was even with all that sleet at JFK on 2/11.... they still got over 10" How much did LGA get? 13"? We got like 8 inches from what I recall from the first system and 11 inches from the second system. I think the fact that they occurred in February when the water is at its coldest is why we still got a lot of snow at the coast that winter.

LGA got around 13 I believe....both events were driven more by very strong overrunning and a tremendous temp gradient at 850mb...the 1st even was severely underforecast though mesoscale banding contributed to the very high totals more than anything else...the 2nd event was forecast well though it started about 6 hours earlier than was predicted ....something we have learned in recent years is common with overrunning storms.

[A-L-E-X]

LGA got around 13 I believe....both events were driven more by very strong overrunning and a tremendous temp gradient at 850mb...the 1st even was severely underforecast though mesoscale banding contributed to the very high totals more than anything else...the 2nd event was forecast well though it started about 6 hours earlier than was predicted ....something we have learned in recent years is common with overrunning storms.

Another storm with a huge gradient was December 2003.... I believe the rain snow line was 5 miles south of here for the whole first half of the storm (and thus we got our greatest snowfall rates)..... we got 14 inches here and 20 inches further east.

[SnowGoose69]

There are certainly similarities to the summer of 1993 not just in the U.S. but patterns around the globe...the UK is having a similar summer and their coldest since 1993...that trough in the PAC NW was present in the summer of 93 as well though it was situated more in the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest/Northern Plains that summer, the southern hemisphere snow season has been poor as well for New Zealand and Chile so far...that was also somewhat present in their 1993 winter....the 93-94 winter was the first winter since NOAA began issuing winter outlooks that they predicted an above normal winter for the majority of the country and were wrong. The NAO was raging positive that winter while the AO was generally negative although it was not strongly negative....the SST anomalies right now in the NATL sure appear to me to be one that would indicate a +NAO...however, trying to predict how those SSTs will change 4-5 months from now is not easy...and obviously we do not have a +NAO at this time either.

[A-L-E-X]

There are certainly similarities to the summer of 1993 not just in the U.S. but patterns around the globe...the UK is having a similar summer and their coldest since 1993...that trough in the PAC NW was present in the summer of 93 as well though it was situated more in the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest/Northern Plains that summer, the southern hemisphere snow season has been poor as well for New Zealand and Chile so far...that was also somewhat present in their 1993 winter....the 93-94 winter was the first winter since NOAA began issuing winter outlooks that they predicted an above normal winter for the majority of the country and were wrong. The NAO was raging positive that winter while the AO was generally negative although it was not strongly negative....the SST anomalies right now in the NATL sure appear to me to be one that would indicate a +NAO...however, trying to predict how those SSTs will change 4-5 months from now is not easy...and obviously we do not have a +NAO at this time either.

The big difference is the lack of flooding rainfall that was present in 1993 around the ring of fire-- didnt St Louis set their record at 50 feet that year?

[A-L-E-X]

From Tipster....

Typhoon Tip, on 24 July 2011 - 07:21 PM, said:

I won't speak for all of August but I am noticing something intriguing up N.

The AO index is positive for the first time in months. More so, nearing August 1st in doing so. Also, the GLAAM is trending to neutralize from its nader, which is an indication that mean torque is elevating - that supplies at least a background signal for increased zonal flow. Zonal flows tend to lead to the burgeoning of subtropical ridges... Another way to back into this conclusion is to observe that the JJA, NAO/GLAAM correlation coefficient is roughly .2 - not a huge positive value, no, but for atmospheric parlance that's actually a decent suggestion there for one reflecting - to some degree - the others phase state. It simple terms, with the AAM shedding the negative vibe, the NAO may tend to shed some of that negative vibe, too. The AO being positive is also a nice fit for that seeing as the AO and NAO obviously share domain space.

This is good for winter weather enthusiasts, though it tortures their wait. The reason it is good is that there is a fairly robust correlation between +AO phase states in ASO, leading -A0 during the winter. The reason (it is thought) that lag is there is because the +AO contracts storminess at high latitudes toward the poles where land-based snow and ice accumulation gets underway hard and fast and early. This lengthens the residence of the cryosphere, which is a huge positive feed-back on pooling negative anomalies for later transport scenarios. Throw in that we've entered a multi-decadal -NAO means good things for transport...

The index is not hugely positive, but is so nonetheless. Moreover, the last months verifications show somewhat of a bias to keep it negative by the GFS ensemble system - not hugely so, but there just the same. Bottom line, the longer the AO is positive in August --> September, the better.

Thanks for your very insightful post, John.... this explains my hot summer ----> snowy winter idea really well. I dont mind it scorching to oblivion right now, and then reaping white gold in the winter