Some Summer and Winter Pairings

[A-L-E-X]

Hot summers that led to crappy winters1988,1991,1999,2005

Well Andrew my friend, 2005-06 did produce 40 plus inches of snow at NYC for the fourth year in a row and our biggest snowstorm in recorded history

As for the other three, they all fall under my ENSO considerations (strong nina, strong nino, strong nina).

[CAT5ANDREW]

Well Andrew my friend, 2005-06 did produce 40 plus inches of snow at NYC for the fourth year in a row and our biggest snowstorm in recorded history <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />As for the other three, they all fall under my ENSO considerations (strong nina, strong nino, strong nina).

True But 98% of that winter was crappy.I believe it was the 5th or 6th warmest on record.The snow was gone 4 days later.

[A-L-E-X]

True But 98% of that winter was crappy.I believe it was the 5th or 6th warmest on record.The snow was gone 4 days later.

Yes, I think this area had the largest differential from NYC I've ever seen, we basically had half the snow -- that storm dumped half as much here as it did in NYC and the December storm didn't happen here. I remember people were using 2005-06 for an analog, I'm glad that didn't work out this past winter.

[uncle W]

any year you get a major storm is a plus...1982-83 is remembered for its February storm...1983-84 is remembered for ?...Big storms stand out regardless of everything else...

[Isotherm]

What are we defining hot summer by? If it makes the top 15 or so?

[A-L-E-X]

What are we defining hot summer by? If it makes the top 15 or so?

lol Im using my personal definition of scorching summer by the number of 90 degree days.... 25 or higher for NYC. My definition of historic snow season is 50 inches or more of snow. Well above average is over 3 feet (36 inches).

[Sundog]

True But 98% of that winter was crappy.I believe it was the 5th or 6th warmest on record.The snow was gone 4 days later.

December was pretty good that year especially away from JFK and other south shore locations that got jipped by the sharp transition line from snow to rain on December 9th.

[A-L-E-X]

December was pretty good that year especially away from JFK and other south shore locations that got jipped by the sharp transition line from snow to rain on December 9th.

It was actually pretty much all of long island that got jipped, I remember William mentioned it was all rain up his way too. Weird to see Cape Cod with blizzard conditions and the north shore of Long Island raining lol.

You were on the extreme western part of the north shore so it was better for you-- although even better once you got into the city and especially north of the city (just not northeast until you got into new england.)

[nzucker]

As long as ENSO is weak,we will have a colder winter than this past one.

I could definitely see a cold winter with a weak La Niña, -QBO, and cooler global temperatures, along with the solar minimum. However, Winter 10-11 was plenty cold with December coming in around -4.5F and January around -2.5F. We had nearly constant below average temperatures from Thanksgiving through the second week of February. Even having lived in Vermont for a few years, this was one of the longest stretches of persistently bitter weather I can recall. We were fortunate that even after the -NAO subsided following the 1/12 Nor'easter, we had an MJO wave that made it to Phase 8 and allowed the cold pattern to continue in late January. My coldest temperature was 1.8F, recorded on 1/24, I believe.

Yup those who want a cooler summer must also take the consequences of a lackluster winter to follow in the majority of cases

Tell that to 2009 and 1960. Winter 60-61 was the snowiest on record in Dobbs Ferry with 90" falling; there were three storms of 18" or greater, something that most climate stations have never achieved in a single year, even in the snowy areas of New England. The 2/25/2010 snowfall of 26" here in Westchester was the largest I've measured in my entire lifetime, counting both Vermont, Poconos, and New York storms.

December was pretty good that year especially away from JFK and other south shore locations that got jipped by the sharp transition line from snow to rain on December 9th.

December was a wintry month away from the coast...we had two moderate snowfalls, I believe, each one probably in the 4-8" range. There was also a notable cold snap, and most of the East ended up with below normal temperatures in December 2005...it was a typical Nina winter with the cold being front-loaded.

January was horribly warm that year, however. I remember going for ice cream after class with two friends during my senior year of HS in the neighboring town of Hastings...it was sometime in mid-January, and we were standing outside devouring our cones comfortably in just light sweatshirts. There were quite a few days in the 50s and 60s that winter, which was a shock to the system given what we'd experienced in the past three winters with the bitter cold that iced the Hudson in January 2005, the prolonged cold spell in January 2004 which included several arctic clippers, and the extremely cold Jan/Feb in 2003 that culminated with the PDII snowfall that happened with temperatures hovering in the upper single digits to low teens. In the defense of Winter 05-06, I do remember fondly the 20" we got in the record-breaking February storm. I was at a friend's play a few miles from my house, watching him perform a lead role in a musical. When we arrived, it was just overcast with a few flurries dancing in the air; by the time the curtain had fallen, we exited to wind-driven snowfall with nearly 6" of accumulation on the ground, and to our despair, the unplowed side roads. My friend's SUV was enough to get us back to my house, barely doing 20mph the entire time, and we stood outside smoking a few bowls in the swirling snow. They left quickly before roads became impassible; I went to bed eventually, and awoke to a nice 20" on the ground. That was really the last winter scene of the season; despite the storm occurring with -10C 850s and dumping tons of powder, we went into an all-out torch rather rapidly.

Winter 05-06 had well above normal temperatures in the CONUS, despite a chilly December:

The 500mb pattern was putrid that winter with a huge PV over the Bering Strait and Western Alaska, cutting off North America's cold air supply with strong southerly flow ahead of the vortex...you can also see that the Northern Hemisphere also was quite warm due to the 2002-2005 multi-year El Nino, which had warmed up the globe significantly:

Winter 05-06 might be raised as an analog for this coming cold season, but I don't see too many similarities. Winter 05-06 had an ascending QBO, whereas it should be descending this season. We also were in a +PDO phase following a long stretch of Nino years that had caused global temperatures/SSTs to be MUCH higher than this season. Finally, the -NAO state didn't really begin until Summer 2008, since which we've seen very consistent blocking patterns that just didn't happen with frequency back then.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes you can find exceptions for pretty much anything, but this doesnt change the fact that the majority of our epic (50") snowfall seasons were preceded by scorching summers.

[CAT5ANDREW]

Yes you can find exceptions for pretty much anything, but this doesnt change the fact that the majority of our epic (50") snowfall seasons were preceded by scorching summers.

Also DRIER than normal along with the heat as well.Wetter summers usually lessen our chances for big snow winters.

[A-L-E-X]

Also DRIER than normal along with the heat as well.Wetter summers usually lessen our chances for big snow winters.

Yep so we're not going to have that going for us this time around lol. I finally got some heavy rain in here in the last 30 min or so.

[SnowGoose69]

Someone compiled a list of all the past 100 years several years back at one of the TV stations for numerous NE cities and found a very slight tendency towards snowier winters after hot summers but it was very negligible. A possible reason for this could be that a -NAO often, but not always establishes a pattern that can make the NE hot in the summer, especially so I believe in the latter portion of the summer (the 2001 August heatwave occurred during a brief plummet in the NAO), so -NAO summers could increase the chance the ensuing winter is in the negative phase as well. 2000 and 2004 were 2 recent instances where cold summers were followed by cold and snowy winters.....2000 could be one of the most persistent pattern regimes I have seen in my lifetime....the overall Atlantic pattern varied little from about June through December with I believe all but one month seeing a -NAO, the pattern finally shifted in January 2001 but a relatively strong -AO for the remainder of the winter continued the pattern overall.

[A-L-E-X]

Someone compiled a list of all the past 100 years several years back at one of the TV stations for numerous NE cities and found a very slight tendency towards snowier winters after hot summers but it was very negligible. A possible reason for this could be that a -NAO often, but not always establishes a pattern that can make the NE hot in the summer, especially so I believe in the latter portion of the summer (the 2001 August heatwave occurred during a brief plummet in the NAO), so -NAO summers could increase the chance the ensuing winter is in the negative phase as well. 2000 and 2004 were 2 recent instances where cold summers were followed by cold and snowy winters.....2000 could be one of the most persistent pattern regimes I have seen in my lifetime....the overall Atlantic pattern varied little from about June through December with I believe all but one month seeing a -NAO, the pattern finally shifted in January 2001 but a relatively strong -AO for the remainder of the winter continued the pattern overall.

Well if you just do it based on NYC and just use the epic >50" snowfall winters (Im going to include 2002-03 because JFK got almost 60" and NYC was close enough to 50") it seems to be a decent correlation.

[JBG]

1992-93 sucked because we didnt have any pure snow events and it was just an appetizer for 93-94.... Unc if you go back through the records and look for winters in which at least 40 or 50 inches of snow fell you should find that the summers preceding them were usually of the "scorch" type (I believe Ray presented some data to this effect on the old board.)

Also DRIER than normal along with the heat as well.Wetter summers usually lessen our chances for big snow winters.

The summers of 2003 and 2004 were no scorchers,and were quite wet, yet were followed by 40+ inches of snow. Ditto 2009, and near-ditto 2008.

[A-L-E-X]

The summers of 2003 and 2004 were no scorchers,and were quite wet, yet were followed by 40+ inches of snow. Ditto 2009, and near-ditto 2008.

The connection seems to be much stronger with 50+ inch winters though.

[JBG]

The connection seems to be much stronger with 50+ inch winters though.

Except, I guess, the summers of 1983, 1988 and 1991. Maybe the pattern doesn't work to well in the middle of "warm phase" but works during "cold phase" and during the edges of "warm phase".

[SnowGoose69]

The summers of 2003 and 2004 were no scorchers,and were quite wet, yet were followed by 40+ inches of snow. Ditto 2009, and near-ditto 2008.

2009 surprised me tremendously, especially December because August had averaged a good 2-3 degrees warmer than July...historically winters in NYC have tended milder than average and less snowy when August averages 2-3 degrees or more warmer than July, only 1969-70 had seen a colder/snowier winter when that had occurred.....December is usually VERY warm in those years...the yeears where this held true were 1891, 1895, 1918, 2001, 1984....the coldest December average in all of those was 38.1 and that was in 1895...considering that is above normal today it was likely scorching for a December back then.....1895-96 had a high snow total but none of those other winters did...considering our only hope going into the winter of 2009-2010 was 1969-70 I did not feel good considering there was a weak El Nino that year and my feeling was that was the reason it was skewed from the other 5 cases...but 2009 found a way to do so and have a below normal December.

[JBG]

considering our only hope going into the winter of 2009-2010 was 1969-70 I did not feel good considering there was a weak El Nino that year and my feeling was that was the reason it was skewed from the other 5 cases...but 2009 found a way to do so and have a below normal December.

Even 1969-70 wasn't so spectacularly great a winter; two big storms, both mixed. The Christmas storm was snow/rain/snow and the Easter storm rain to snow. We did have major cold in January but that was mostly wasted on snowflakes going into the Atlantic Ocean.

[SnowGoose69]

Even 1969-70 wasn't so spectacularly great a winter; two big storms, both mixed. The Christmas storm was snow/rain/snow and the Easter storm rain to snow. We did have major cold in January but that was mostly wasted on snowflakes going into the Atlantic Ocean.

69-70 I believe was a weaker version of 02-03 for the coast but similar for areas inland like NW NJ, E PA, and C NY where there were several big snow events as there were in 02-03 as well.

[A-L-E-X]

Except, I guess, the summers of 1983, 1988 and 1991. Maybe the pattern doesn't work to well in the middle of "warm phase" but works during "cold phase" and during the edges of "warm phase".

Yes and all of those were extreme ensos in some way (1983, 1991-- strong nino) (1988-- strong nina)

[A-L-E-X]

Even 1969-70 wasn't so spectacularly great a winter; two big storms, both mixed. The Christmas storm was snow/rain/snow and the Easter storm rain to snow. We did have major cold in January but that was mostly wasted on snowflakes going into the Atlantic Ocean.

JBG that reminds me so much of the early and mid 80s.....

[JBG]

JBG that reminds me so much of the early and mid 80s.....

Without the fun of April 7, 1982 or February 11, 1983.

[A-L-E-X]

Without the fun of April 7, 1982 or February 11, 1983.

Yes, that was the last big snow storm of the 80s for us

Big as in 10 inches of snow or more lol.

[SnowGoose69]

Yes, that was the last big snow storm of the 80s for us

Big as in 10 inches of snow or more lol.

The 80s had alot of localized bigger snow events, but April 82 and February 83 were the most widespread....January 87 and Thanksgiving 89 were not bad and both had amounts over and close to 10 inches respectively in some spots though in the Thanksgiving storm those were confined mainly to eastern LI.

[Guest Pamela]

1992-93 sucked because we didnt have any pure snow events and it was just an appetizer for 93-94....

There were two nice moderate snowstorms in the area in February 1993...basically the first signs of winter the region had seen since February 1987 came to a close.

[Guest Pamela]

1983-84 is remembered for ?......

Probably the 6 - 9 inch "mini-blizzard" that took place in early March...it was followed by several days of anomalous cold.

[Guest Pamela]

If I remember correctly, in the summer of 1994 there was a huge dividing line with the areas from Philly southward experiencing a MUCH hotter summer than what we had (especially from July onwards.)

The 1993-94 winter had a similar dividing line snow wise....much of S. Jersey saw less than 12" of snow that winter....while northern sections of NYC measured close to five feet.

[A-L-E-X]

Probably the 6 - 9 inch "mini-blizzard" that took place in early March...it was followed by several days of anomalous cold.

What a wintry month! And then we had a big storm to close out the month

[A-L-E-X]

The 1993-94 winter had a similar dividing line snow wise....much of S. Jersey saw less than 12" of snow that winter....while northern sections of NYC measured close to five feet.

60" wow. We had around 4 feet here-- with two storms every week for the whole winter.