bluewave Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 Some summer and winter pairings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 If I remember correctly, in the summer of 1994 there was a huge dividing line with the areas from Philly southward experiencing a MUCH hotter summer than what we had (especially from July onwards.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 We also had an awesome thunderstorm at the end of June that year. I think I have it on VHS somewhere If I remember correctly, in the summer of 1994 there was a huge dividing line with the areas from Philly southward experiencing a MUCH hotter summer than what we had (especially from July onwards.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 We also had an awesome thunderstorm at the end of June that year. I think I have it on VHS somewhere amazing how you remember this, it was 17 years ago and i was only 3 years old lol. Congrats i hope we have a hot July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 What can I say, I'm old and I have a good memory :-) amazing how you remember this, it was 17 years ago and i was only 3 years old lol. Congrats i hope we have a hot July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I remember both May and June of 1994 being good for thunderstorms but then in July and August spend my summer being at camp upstate and there was a few good thunderstorms up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Remember also that the winter previous to 1994 was a very cold and snowy one with extensive and long duration snow cover similar to what we just had. The old scorching summer followed by cold and snowy winter holding true yet again. Everyone would be a fan of big heat if they knew how often that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Yeah but winter of 94-95 was awful Remember also that the winter previous to 1994 was a very cold and snowy one with extensive and long duration snow cover similar to what we just had. The old scorching summer followed by cold and snowy winter holding true yet again. Everyone would be a fan of big heat if they knew how often that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Yeah but winter of 94-95 was awful THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 As long as ENSO is weak,we will have a colder winter than this past one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 THIS Except there was one good storm that winter that happen early Feburary that bring 11" in NYC and the rest area had a good 7-14" I could recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Was basically the only measurable snowfall all winter Except there was one good storm that winter that happen early Feburary that bring 11" in NYC and the rest area had a good 7-14" I could recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjmJS Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 This is July 1994. I think the Mid-Atl and Northeast along with Texas makes sense. Northern east coast seems legit especially since models have continually underestimated temps along the coast due to AMO anomolies. It's tough to see the southeast being cool though given how hot it's been there and not to mention drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 April/May 1994 and 2011...You can see a big difference for April and May for these years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 If I remember correctly, in the summer of 1994 there was a huge dividing line with the areas from Philly southward experiencing a MUCH hotter summer than what we had (especially from July onwards.) Really more from August on. July was still rather hot in KNYC. Remember also that the winter previous to 1994 was a very cold and snowy one with extensive and long duration snow cover similar to what we just had. The old scorching summer followed by cold and snowy winter holding true yet again. Everyone would be a fan of big heat if they knew how often that worked out Quite true, but that happened in spite of a raging +NAO and ENSO neutral conditions whereas our past winter was moderate-strong La Niña and raging -NAO. Additionally, I'd be careful before using any warm phase analog for this summer. I think the best series of analogs come from the early to mid 1950's when we had several La Niña summers in a row, those being 1954, 1955 and 1956, with 1952 close behind, and four scorching summers in a row, 1952 through 1955. 1952, 1953 and 1954 all had 100+ readings, and while 1955 never went over 100 we hit a record, which stood until 1999, of 95+ readings in one month. The assumption that second La Niña summers are bummers comes mostly from warm phase experience in 1984, 1989, 1996 and 2000. 1967 followed a neutral-negative period and was affected by a volcano, as was 1992 (non-Niña). I think this summer could be pretty hot, if not quite matching 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yeah but winter of 94-95 was awful Yup those who want a cooler summer must also take the consequences of a lackluster winter to follow in the majority of cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Really more from August on. July was still rather hot in KNYC. Quite true, but that happened in spite of a raging +NAO and ENSO neutral conditions whereas our past winter was moderate-strong La Niña and raging -NAO. Additionally, I'd be careful before using any warm phase analog for this summer. I think the best series of analogs come from the early to mid 1950's when we had several La Niña summers in a row, those being 1954, 1955 and 1956, with 1952 close behind, and four scorching summers in a row, 1952 through 1955. 1952, 1953 and 1954 all had 100+ readings, and while 1955 never went over 100 we hit a record, which stood until 1999, of 95+ readings in one month. The assumption that second La Niña summers are bummers comes mostly from warm phase experience in 1984, 1989, 1996 and 2000. 1967 followed a neutral-negative period and was affected by a volcano, as was 1992 (non-Niña). I think this summer could be pretty hot, if not quite matching 2010. Yes, I would like those late 40s early 50s analogs too... we had some nice repeat hot or semi-hot summers in there, though the winters dont seem to be a good match. Back in the 50s, March was our snowiest month lol and we had a lot of east coast hurricane, something we havent seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Yup those who want a cooler summer must also take the consequences of a lackluster winter to follow in the majority of cases 2009 was cool and the winter was great...Some other cool summers that were followed by a good winter... ....................................... 1960 1992 2000 2004 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 2009 was cool and the winter was great...Some other cool summers that were followed by a good winter..........................................19601992200020042009 The winter of 1992-93 had a very warm DEC/JAN couplet.With the exception of a a half inch here in the backlash of the big noreaster and another inch in the middle of JAN,it was warm and snowless those months.New years Eve balldrop the temp was 60 I believe.Several days in early JAN had temps in the 50s and 60s as well.FEB/MAR were completly different.colder and with decent snowfall with the March storm being the biggest.Great comeback of a winter IMO. Winter of 2006-07 was more similar,but more extreme from warmth and warmth to cold with less snow and a ton of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The winter of 1992-93 had a very warm DEC/JAN couplet.With the exception of a a half inch here in the backlash of the big noreaster and another inch in the middle of JAN,it was warm and snowless those months.New years Eve balldrop the temp was 60 I believe.Several days in early JAN had temps in the 50s and 60s as well.FEB/MAR were completly different.colder and with decent snowfall with the March storm being the biggest.Great comeback of a winter IMO. Winter of 2006-07 was more similar,but more extreme from warmth and warmth to cold with less snow and a ton of sleet. March 1993 had the first 10" snowstorm in over 10 years....The longest period without a major storm...Since then we have seen a record amount of major snowstorms...in early February 1993 an arctic front with snow changed the pattern to a colder and snowier...we got four straight years with 10" snowfalls twice and working on a third... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Still have 2 years to go to achieve that since most places didn't get one in 08-09. This is an interesting chart though. In just 2 winters, we're only 3 off of the 70s and 80s. Warning Criteria Snowstorms (6 inches or more) by decade at Central Park 1869 to Present Decade Numer of Times of Occurrence 1970's 8 1980's 8 1990's 12 2000's 19 2010's 5 thru Mar 2, 2011 March 1993 had the first 10" snowstorm in over 10 years....The longest period without a major storm...Since then we have seen a record amount of major snowstorms...in early February 1993 an arctic front with snow changed the pattern to a colder and snowier...we got four straight years with 10" snowfalls twice and working on a third... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 2009 was cool and the winter was great...Some other cool summers that were followed by a good winter... ....................................... 1960 1992 2000 2004 2009 Yes but we have ENSO to thank for that lol-- I made the allowance for ENSO changing the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 March 1993 had the first 10" snowstorm in over 10 years....The longest period without a major storm...Since then we have seen a record amount of major snowstorms...in early February 1993 an arctic front with snow changed the pattern to a colder and snowier...we got four straight years with 10" snowfalls twice and working on a third... 1992-93 sucked because we didnt have any pure snow events and it was just an appetizer for 93-94.... Unc if you go back through the records and look for winters in which at least 40 or 50 inches of snow fell you should find that the summers preceding them were usually of the "scorch" type (I believe Ray presented some data to this effect on the old board.) The way we reasoned it based on the data was that barring ENSO considerations a scorching summer often led to a snowy winter however the converse or the inverse was not necessarily true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 1992-93 sucked because we didnt have any pure snow events and it was just an appetizer for 93-94.... Unc if you go back through the records and look for winters in which at least 40 or 50 inches of snow fell you should find that the summers preceding them were usually of the "scorch" type (I believe Ray presented some data to this effect on the old board.) The way we reasoned it based on the data was that barring ENSO considerations a scorching summer often led to a snowy winter however the converse or the inverse was not necessarily true. I love when a June torch thread turns into a winter snowfall thread...I'll list the 40" plus winters with enso and previous summers heat or lack of...I made it relative to the times... winter..previous summer and enso... 2010-11...Hot....La Nina 2009-10...cool....El Nino 2005-06...Hot....weak La Nina 2004-05...cool....weak el nino 2003-04...norm...weal el nino 2002-03...Hot....El Nino 1995-96...Hot....weak la nina 1993-94...Hot....weak el nino 1977-78...Hot....weak el nino 1966-67...Hot....weak la nina 1963-64...cool....el nino 1960-61...cool....weak la nina/neg 1957-58...Hot.....el nino 1948-49...Norm...neutral 1947-48...Norm...neutral 1933-34...Hot....weak la nina 1922-23...cool....la nina 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 1992-93 sucked because we didnt have any pure snow events and it was just an appetizer for 93-94.... Unc if you go back through the records and look for winters in which at least 40 or 50 inches of snow fell you should find that the summers preceding them were usually of the "scorch" type (I believe Ray presented some data to this effect on the old board.) 2009 was hardly scorching, except a few days in April and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 2009 was listed as a cool summer above 2009 was hardly scorching, except a few days in April and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 2009 was hardly scorching, except a few days in April and August. That was one of the ENSO exceptions I allowed for JBG BTW when I said the inverse or converse doesnt necessarily follow, I meant that although it seems that the majority of our scorching summers lead to snowy winters, it doesn't mean that every single snowy winter was preceded by a scorching summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Unc, was 1960-61 a weak la nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Unc, was 1960-61 a weak la nina? ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 it was a weak negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Hot summers that led to crappy winters1988,1991,1999,2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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