mattie g Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I just can't believe that this June will be the 4th warmest on record. Not questioning the stats but from a relative standpoint, this june has felt pretty darn comfortable. I've even had the AC off for at least 7 days this month. Definitely a relativity factor. And when it's been hot, it's generally been really hot (at least from what I remember). I really don't know what I'd think if we came out somewhere around normal. It'd seem downright cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 likely we'll be tied with 1981 for 4th warmest June on record....may be tied for 3rd depending on today.....what an awesome "cool" June Looks like 3rd is in the bag at IAD. edit - If my calcs are right, we need to hit 88 at DCA to tie for 3rd. 85 at the 2pm ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 GFS still showing comfy temps after the 8th through the end of the run. What does the Euro show during that time frame? It would be crazy if we have sub 90's for a week in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 GFS still showing comfy temps after the 8th through the end of the run. What does the Euro show during that time frame? It would be crazy if we have sub 90's for a week in July. Euro has the same general idea of the front coming through Wed/Thurs and then pleasant, but does not set up the big Western ridge like the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Euro has the same general idea of the front coming through Wed/Thurs and then pleasant, but does not set up the big Western ridge like the GFS does. And it's probably more correct going into the middle of the month as the ridge struggles to hold in the West once it builds... with the -PNA/+AMO/drought continuing to work in tandem to keep the S/SE areas above normal. Of course, the onset of the monsoon season brings a new player to the table WRT anomalies. Looks like we could be setting up for some good warmth across the mid-country and south/southeastern U.S. this month, with the -AO/-NAO keeping the Northeast on the neutral/below side through approx. the first two weeks of the month. Around here I'd say we could be looking at around +3 anomalies on average over the next two weeks... maybe hotter if the drought conditions persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Seems like if there aren't any pesky clouds and rain, we exceed max temp forecasts with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Euro has the same general idea of the front coming through Wed/Thurs and then pleasant, but does not set up the big Western ridge like the GFS does. I'm liking that ridging over the Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Looks like 3rd is in the bag at IAD. edit - If my calcs are right, we need to hit 88 at DCA to tie for 3rd. 85 at the 2pm ob. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 Bingo. nice +4 on the maxes and +4.6 on the mins seems like July 2009 was ages ago when we had 70 or lower mins 23 times at DCA that month....There seems to be a fair amount of cheerleading over the 2nd half of June, myself included, but we can do so much better......I don't care as much about the mins, though cool overnight lows are great.....But if we can keep the average max below 89 in July, I wiil give at at least a C+...below 88 and that is at least a B/B+....below 87 gets an A from me...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Heat wave 3 now on day 4. Hard to say how long it will last. Could be over today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Models are strongly signaling a heat ridge next week. The models have been a bit overzealous this summer at times, but it is worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 DCA and BWI at 83F with IAD at 80F at 10am... looks like another low 90s day coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 agreed....12z GFS has backed off some and slowed down....for no other reason than I think it is a superior model, I will hug the Euro on this one.....it may be a case where the mean ridge stays over the drought areas, but climo plus lack of a trough allows us to be 89-94 for a period....we are going to hit 90-92 today with pretty weak 500mb ridging and partial cloudiness....we are entering a period that lasts until around 8/15 where 88+ is pretty easy even with a lot of mitigating factors.....and so you can get a lot of fluke 90-92 readings This is pretty much what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 GFS is locked in again starting this weekend...probably sunday....not sure how extreme, but low to mid 90s seems like a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 euro is hot hot hot. locks in the eastern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 euro is hot hot hot. locks in the eastern half. I just looked and it is hot, but not crazy hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 new norms shifted the highest highs forward.. we're entering into that period soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 new norms shifted the highest highs forward.. we're entering into that period soon but are we observing them yet?...when do we start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 today may be end of heat wave....hit 89 through 2pm but now 87...not sure if we got there or if we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 today may be end of heat wave....hit 89 through 2pm but now 87...not sure if we got there or if we will I have no doubts that we will/have hit 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 but are we observing them yet?...when do we start? I dunno if officially but they are still valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I have no doubts that we will/have hit 90. This ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 I dunno if officially but they are still valid. true...looks like July 7th through 22nd is the period of 89 maxes I wont use them for grading cap weather outlook even if it will help....but will use them for the winter outlook...hopefully they are in full effect by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 This ob Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Fail maybe we got there already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 maybe we got there already throw me a bone people- i want to lead pm update saying we're 5/5 for 90+ days in July... i gotta think we touched it inter-hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 throw me a bone people- i want to lead pm update saying we're 5/5 for 90+ days in July... i gotta think we touched it inter-hour. BWI is 92....IAD got there early...we probably hit it...roll the dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 haha...stuck at 89...we probably hit it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Looks like today and tomorrow will go 90+, especially with these lows in the mid 70s. Friday's probably not going to make it... clouds and rain all day. EDIT: Lol rain... goodbye streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.