eurojosh Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 the 594 circle is the center of the upper level ridge.. about as powerful as you'll see Right, that bit I get - how do forecasters translate that ridge into predicted temperature values - and what would such values be for this sort of set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Right, that bit I get - how do forecasters translate that ridge into predicted temperature values - and what would such values be for this sort of set-up? it depends....850s often lag the 500mb ridge...upper 90s, low 100's likely by day 2 of the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 not to be a wet blanket, but we are probably looking at 92/78 next ob....only 2 of Ian's sample were 92 or lower at 11:52 I think 98-99 is more probable for DCA, but maybe next ob will surprise and be 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Got quite a few clouds here now. Some towering cu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 i'll go 93/78 which would still keep us in the running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 not to be a wet blanket, but we are probably looking at 92/78 next ob....only 2 of Ian's sample were 92 or lower at 11:52 I think 98-99 is more probable for DCA, but maybe next ob will surprise and be 93 I need to fill in more 100 days. It's probably becoming a stretch to get past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 i'll go 93/78 which would still keep us in the running I will go 93/77... should have HI's around 107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 93/78! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 i'll go 93/78 which would still keep us in the running & 94 at IAD! HIX at DCA is 109... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 i'll go 93/78 which would still keep us in the running Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Got quite a few clouds here now. Some towering cu. Somebody turned on the mixer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 FWIW... 06z GFS at IAD for Fri/Sat max temp was 106/106... at DCA its 104/103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 95/75 at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 95/75 @ BWI --> HI = 106.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 With the likelihood of another EHW for Saturday... have we ever had 3 days in a row of EHW's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 98/75 HI 111 - Inner Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaSnow Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 93/78! I just got back from a 20-minute walk in the shadow of DCA. It is hot, but most of the time I was out there were enough clouds to keep it reasonable feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I just got back from a 20-minute walk in the shadow of DCA. It is hot, but most of the time I was out there were enough clouds to keep it reasonable feeling. definitely more clouds than i would have expected.. looks like there is some convergence zone over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I will guess 95/77 for the next ob... beginning to wonder if those clouds keep us away from reaching 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I hope the temps bust low for every day. I'm more excited about the chances of that than seeing overperformance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 I will guess 95/77 for the next ob... beginning to wonder if those clouds keep us away from reaching 100 sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 12z GFS is brutal from Thursday-Sunday next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 heat wave dubbed sweat ceiling. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 heat wave dubbed sweat ceiling. lolz. thats stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 heat wave dubbed sweat ceiling. lolz. Ok then... thats such a stupid name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 95/77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 12z GFS is brutal from Thursday-Sunday next week Next Friday looks like the center of the 594 DM ridge is right over us... though it looks a bit odd because of the way it comes about on this run... the 594 DM heights seem to appear on the EC first then slowly shift westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok then... thats such a stupid name i didnt even get it the first time i heard it.. i guess im stupid. naming weather is stupid in general imo -- but 'the people' love to be involved. i guess we have to hope we dont top it next week now or the ceiling has to be raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 heat wave dubbed sweat ceiling. lolz. Mine were waaaaaay better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 12z GFS is brutal from Thursday-Sunday next week a bit of hyperbole...500 mb heights are higher (>594 dm) but 850T are only in the range of 21/22, so mid to upper 90s a good bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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