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HEAT WAVE 6 now underway....probably will last 5 days


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18z GFS -- Sat and Sunday 21-22c 850s... Monday 21c 850s centered more for VA/MD line south... finally a cool down Tuesday with 17-18c 850s... future 850s (take with grain of salt) are 16-18c on avg with occasional 19/20c...

Though 500h shows large 594 DM heights in the long long range from Rockies to offshore of the East Coast -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_264l.gif

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Again at 100 for Sun/Mon. Way different than the Euro.

18z GFS -- Sat and Sunday 21-22c 850s... Monday 21c 850s centered more for VA/MD line south... finally a cool down Tuesday with 17-18c 850s... future 850s (take with grain of salt) are 16-18c on avg with occasional 19/20c...

Though 500h shows large 594 DM heights in the long long range from Rockies to offshore of the East Coast -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_264l.gif

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18z GFS for DCA MAX TEMP:

THU -- 99

FRI -- 104

SAT -- 103

SUN -- 100

MON -- 100

TUES -- 89

For IAD

THU -- 102

FRI -- 108

SAT -- 106

SUN -- 104

MON -- 101

TUES -- 90

Thank God I'm leaving for NYC tomorrow... although slightly less hot + horrible stench is probably worse than just torrid heat. You have not experienced horrible smells until you've been in NYC for 3+ days of 95+. AWFUL.

Although it seems feasible either DCA or IAD could potentially set their all-time record on Friday, so...

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18z GFS -- Sat and Sunday 21-22c 850s... Monday 21c 850s centered more for VA/MD line south... finally a cool down Tuesday with 17-18c 850s... future 850s (take with grain of salt) are 16-18c on avg with occasional 19/20c...

Though 500h shows large 594 DM heights in the long long range from Rockies to offshore of the East Coast -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_264l.gif

yeah the gfs likes hitting us pretty hard again after a little break... even though our hottest period moved forward with the new norms early aug has been brutal lately.

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For IAD

THU -- 102

FRI -- 108

SAT -- 106

SUN -- 104

MON -- 101

TUES -- 90

Thank God I'm leaving for NYC tomorrow... although slightly less hot + horrible stench is probably worse than just torrid heat. You have not experienced horrible smells until you've been in NYC for 3+ days of 95+. AWFUL.

Although it seems feasible either DCA or IAD could potentially set their all-time record on Friday, so...

Nik, the temp may be slightly lower up here, but the humidity may be higher. Looks like Friday is the peak of the heat here also, with 102-105 widespread across the tristate, even down at the shore.

Check out Philly's combo of heat + humidity on July 15, 1995..... that is the worst that I have heard of on the east coast. I believe their heat index was over 130. Off the top of my head, I think the temp was 104 and the dew point was 83.

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Nik, the temp may be slightly lower up here, but the humidity may be higher. Looks like Friday is the peak of the heat here also, with 102-105 widespread across the tristate, even down at the shore.

Check out Philly's combo of heat + humidity on July 15, 1995..... that is the worst that I have heard of on the east coast. I believe their heat index was over 130.

It's weird to use dangerous in the context of heat since we're so used to it, but this seems to be a rather extraordinary setup... 100+ more than one day in a row is rare let alone 3 or 4 days. It's not the "dry" heat (relatively) we saw last summer when it hit 102-103 from DC-NYC, either... this will be bonafide 110-120 heat index readings up and down the Megalopolis. Brownout potential is definitely there with this heatwave and we have not seen anything like it in a long time.

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It's weird to use dangerous in the context of heat since we're so used to it, but this seems to be a rather extraordinary setup... 100+ more than one day in a row is rare let alone 3 or 4 days. It's not the "dry" heat (relatively) we saw last summer when it hit 102-103 from DC-NYC, either... this will be bonafide 110-120 heat index readings up and down the Megalopolis. Brownout potential is definitely there with this heatwave and we have not seen anything like it in a long time.

Yep, this is more like 90s style heat-- like what we had in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999.... I think it will be a shock to the system for a lot of people; even though we remember last summer well, we never had heat indices like what we are going to get later this week.... I dont think we even had a 110 heat index last summer and it's progged to be around 120 up here on Friday.

Here are the Philly numbers from July 15, 1995....

http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

The high was 103 and the max DP was 83.... but that occurred when the actual temp was 98. The dew point was "only" 77 when the high temp of 103 was reached, but jumped up to 82 the following hour when the temp was 102:

12:00 PM 98.1 °F 82.9 °F 62% 29.90 in 3.0 miles ESE 4.6 mph - N/A Drizzle

1:00 PM 99.0 °F 81.0 °F 56% 29.89 in 3.0 miles SSW 8.1 mph - N/A Drizzle

2:00 PM 100.9 °F 81.0 °F 53% 29.87 in 3.0 miles WSW 10.4 mph - N/A Drizzle

3:00 PM 102.9 °F 77.0 °F 44% 29.86 in 4.0 miles WSW 11.5 mph - N/A Drizzle

4:00 PM 102.0 °F 82.0 °F 53% 29.85 in 3.0 miles SW 13.8 mph - N/A Drizzle

5:00 PM 100.9 °F 82.0 °F 55% 29.84 in 3.0 miles SW 12.7 mph - N/A Drizzle

6:00 PM 100.0 °F 81.0 °F 54% 29.82 in 3.0 miles WSW 12.7 mph - N/A Drizzle

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18z GFS for DCA MAX TEMP:

THU -- 99

FRI -- 104

SAT -- 103

SUN -- 100

MON -- 100

TUES -- 89

00z GFS for DCA MAX TEMP:

THU -- 99

FRI -- 103

SAT -- 102

SUN -- 100

MON -- 95

TUES -- 88

00z GFS for IAD MAX TEMP:

THU -- 101

FRI -- 106

SAT -- 103

SUN -- 103

MON -- 96

TUES -- 89

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