MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 GFS keeps 95+ through next Monday..... I've never used Allan's max temp maps before, so I don't know if it is equivalent to what I've been keeping track of, but this is unreal: Thurs: 100 Fri: 102 Sat: 103 Sun: 101 Mon: 100 Tue: 84 Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I've never used Allan's max temp maps before, so I don't know if it is equivalent to what I've been keeping track of, but this is unreal: Thurs: 100 Fri: 102 Sat: 103 Sun: 101 Mon: 100 Tue: 84 Monday: Pool = Hot Tub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Pool = Hot Tub I'm glad I don't live in Pepco's jurisdiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I've never used Allan's max temp maps before, so I don't know if it is equivalent to what I've been keeping track of, but this is unreal: Thurs: 100 Fri: 102 Sat: 103 Sun: 101 Mon: 100 Tue: 84 Monday: Steep drop there Mon-Tuesday.... hope thats a strong CF for good storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm glad I don't live in Pepco's jurisdiction. Shhhhh... They are supposed to be comforted by Pepco's PR then amasse into a violent revolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm glad I don't live in Pepco's jurisdiction. If you did, then it would be "hot tub = pool" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 So nice outside... 95/72 with a HI of 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For historical perspective, the great 100+ heat waves (3 consecutive): 7 15 1988 100 7 16 1988 104 7 17 1988 101 7 8 1993 100 7 9 1993 100 7 10 1993 100 And the granddaddy summer: 7 19 1930 102 7 20 1930 106 7 21 1930 103 7 22 1930 100 7 25 1930 100 7 26 1930 103 8 3 1930 100 8 4 1930 102 8 5 1930 102 8 8 1930 101 8 9 1930 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is there any correlation between the following winter and summers that have multiple temps of 100+ degrees? What I mean is, is there a better chance for a cold/snowy winter following a summer that has multiple 100+ degree days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I've never used Allan's max temp maps before, so I don't know if it is equivalent to what I've been keeping track of, but this is unreal: Thurs: 100 Fri: 102 Sat: 103 Sun: 101 Mon: 100 Tue: 84 Close (source http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kdca) Thurs: 100 Fri: 103 Sat: 105 () Sun: 103 Mon: 100 Tue: 84 For fun(?) IAD Thurs: 102 Fri: 105 Sat: 106 Sun: 105 Mon: 102 Tue: 85 To counteract any panic, I am now linking to the thread on the main board where it says that the GFS sucks and is way too warm: http://www.americanw...argin-days-5-6/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The EURO I believe has been pretty close in re 850T temps... with the GFS being a tad high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For historical perspective, the great 100+ heat waves (3 consecutive): 7 15 1988 100 7 16 1988 104 7 17 1988 101 7 8 1993 100 7 9 1993 100 7 10 1993 100 And the granddaddy summer: 7 19 1930 102 7 20 1930 106 7 21 1930 103 7 22 1930 100 7 25 1930 100 7 26 1930 103 8 3 1930 100 8 4 1930 102 8 5 1930 102 8 8 1930 101 8 9 1930 102 It's interesting Balt has had 6 3-day consec in addition to the 4 day at the same time DC did. I added some info to my 100-degree days post on my site.. breakdown of all 100F days: 44% hit 100 on the nose, 23% made it to 101, 16% to 102, 8% to 103, %5 to 104 and 2% each to 105F and 106F. http://www.ianlivingston.com/2011/07/11/100-degree-days-at-washington-d-c-and-baltimore-md-yearly-counts-seasonal-average-and-extremes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The EURO I believe has been pretty close in re 850T temps... with the GFS being a tad high The GFS does have the 850s 2-3 degrees higher than the NAM. Will be interesting to see the Euro in a little bit. I do think I will save the text as the most absurd model run since the DGEX prior to snowmaggedon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The GFS does have the 850s 2-3 degrees higher than the NAM. Will be interesting to see the Euro in a little bit. I do think I will save the text as the most absurd model run since the DGEX prior to snowmaggedon. There was a map posted in the regular weather forum in regards to this... trying to find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is there any correlation between the following winter and summers that have multiple temps of 100+ degrees? What I mean is, is there a better chance for a cold/snowy winter following a summer that has multiple 100+ degree days? Looks cold and dry. Winters following years with 3+ 100° days Throwing out the 97/98 Nino No moderate or strong ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is there any correlation between the following winter and summers that have multiple temps of 100+ degrees? What I mean is, is there a better chance for a cold/snowy winter following a summer that has multiple 100+ degree days? Cold/dry, warm/wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks cold and dry. Cold/dry, warm/wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is there any correlation between the following winter and summers that have multiple temps of 100+ degrees? What I mean is, is there a better chance for a cold/snowy winter following a summer that has multiple 100+ degree days? This guy seems to have an idea of what our next winter will be like http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/21747-winter-outlook/page__pid__819455#entry819455 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks cold and dry. Winters following years with 3+ 100° days Throwing out the 97/98 Nino No moderate or strong ENSO MN, that's a rather strong signal even without 1966-67 and 1995-96 being included. I noticed a few years back that many of NYC's historic winters (which I define as a winter that occurs on average once a decade, which works out to 50"+) were preceded by scorching summers (which I define as summers in which we reached 90 degrees at least 30 times and 100 at least once.) I left out strong ENSO condition years like 1983, 1991 and 1999. Obviously the correlation isnt going to be perfect, but winters like 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2010-11 were preceded by these kinds of summers. I asked Wes about this awhile ago and I recall him saying that these kinds of summers usually occur in -NAO patterns so if the pattern persists into the winter, then you can get a snowy/cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Oh my god why couldn't that storm be over my head lol.... I need cooler air... yay time for a one mile walk f my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Put another 95 in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Close (source http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kdca) Same source for my neck of the woods: At MRB. Thu: 102 Fri: 104 Sat: 103 Sun: 101 Mon: 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 We could be at four 100 degree days by Saturday. Outside of the eleven 100 degree days of 1930 we have the possibilty of quickly approaching some of the higher years. Using Ian's link it looks like the second highest year was 7 days followed by a year with 6 and then a year with 5. It isn't until the 4-100 degree days that you get mutliple years of occurence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Put another 95 in the books. Yrly avg hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Oh my god why couldn't that storm be over my head corn dust...sry lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MN, that's a rather strong signal even without 1966-67 and 1995-96 being included. I noticed a few years back that many of NYC's historic winters (which I define as a winter that occurs on average once a decade, which works out to 50"+) were preceded by scorching summers (which I define as summers in which we reached 90 degrees at least 30 times and 100 at least once.) I left out strong ENSO condition years like 1983, 1991 and 1999. Obviously the correlation isnt going to be perfect, but winters like 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2010-11 were preceded by these kinds of summers. I asked Wes about this awhile ago and I recall him saying that these kinds of summers usually occur in -NAO patterns so if the pattern persists into the winter, then you can get a snowy/cold winter. Well...maybe you can get a snowy and cold winter. We'll just get a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Yrly avg hit Do you have a 95+ graph/stats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Do you have a 95+ graph/stats? On my phone now but I started a thread about it with stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Do you have a 95+ graph/stats? I think I put the whole record in the thread Matt started. I'm working on a consecutive / streak graph now tho I screwed up the first go around so I need to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 heres the other thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/19404-super-heat-days-95-degrees-at-dca-from-1980-2010/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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