chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I put it in quotes...I think people are on notice that it is a loose informal definition....I am not using the WMO definition that defines 5 days in July of 95, 99, 102, 100, 97 as NOT a heat wave..yeah right...these things are subjective anyway.....I have been objective in using 90+ days....If using the term "heat wave" offends your sensibilities, I apologize I should be the one apologizing. You don't have to put it in quotes...I see the argument that 90 is a good threshold for comfort and that works as a definition of heat wave, from that standpoint. I sometimes get stuck thinking of a heat wave as an anomalous event, and that is some people's definition, but I also know that when we have periods of time with highs above 90 I surely don't enjoy it. I saw a paper just published in GRL (2010) that pretty much says there is no widely accepted definition of heat wave and they present a pretty good statistical metric for what they classify as a "heat wave", see Section 2 if anyone is interested: http://europa.agu.org/?uri=/journals/gl/2009GL041841.xml&view=article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 I should be the one apologizing. You don't have to put it in quotes...I see the argument that 90 is a good threshold for comfort and that works as a definition of heat wave, from that standpoint. I sometimes get stuck thinking of a heat wave as an anomalous event, and that is some people's definition, but I also know that when we have periods of time with highs above 90 I surely don't enjoy it. I read some definitions that want to make it a high SD event....one that occurs extremely infrequently....I don't agree with that, but I do agree that 90, 92, 91 in mid July should not be a heat wave and it is kind of silly to call it one....I think ultimately a good definition would account for duration and intensity and perhaps be flexible on both if one compensates for the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I read some definitions that want to make it a high SD event....one that occurs extremely infrequently....I don't agree with that, but I do agree that 90, 92, 91 in mid July should not be a heat wave and it is kind of silly to call it one....I think ultimately a good definition would account for duration and intensity and perhaps be flexible on both if one compensates for the other Exactly, I don't think it has to be a high SD event, most studies use 95 percentile (or ~ 2Ds), but Tmax 95, 95, 95 in July/August wouldn't reach that threshold but I would consider that a heat wave, especially if it is combined with Tmin like 78, 79, 80, and Td like 72, 72, 72. These are the discussions I am interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It doesn't appear that this summer is going to have long duration heatwaves. It will be interesting to see how many days above 95 we will have. IMO- this summer is going to be an easy one. Especially compared to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It's semantics as for the long timers around here know that 90+ usually is accompanied by HHH so even if only 90F it often feels worse. And we also know that many times DCA only barely manages to hit 90 while surrounding places rocket into the low 90s. Yeah, but when the average high for DCA is almost 90 in July, I don't see how anything under 95 could be considered a "heat wave". That honestly just seems silly: three days in a row with +1 or +2 departure highs would be a "heat wave"? The same would apply here in Denver during July. The three 90+ days in a row thing does seem to be the loose criteria for many places in the nation, but it obviously doesn't fit a lot of places. I mean, it's kind of like using the same standards for cold in the winter for Boston and DC. Three days in a row below freezing would be considered a cold wave for DC, but routine for Boston. Whereas three 90+ days is actually something significant for Boston, but not for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 it has always been a loose, informal definition in the mid-Atlantic and northeast....obviously in using this definition in DC, there will be some unimpressive "heat waves" When I was in North Carolina it was defined as 3+ days of 95 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 GFS backs off of the high end potential...I still think we probably see a 3 or 4 day heat wave, but it may be of the 91-93 degree variety and an 88-89 could always put the kibosh on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 GFS backs off of the high end potential...I still think we probably see a 3 or 4 day heat wave, but it may be of the 91-93 degree variety and an 88-89 could always put the kibosh on it Euro back off too and gets "cool" again for next weekend.....no complaints from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Euro back off too and gets "cool" again for next weekend.....no complaints from me Yep, looking like a 3-4 day stretch of 90+ then going back to low 80's. I hope that is the theme this summer. Regular breaks from the HHH stuff makes a good summer round here. Looks like decent chance for boomers during the hot stretch. Much better than a strong ridge putting a lid on convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Yep, looking like a 3-4 day stretch of 90+ then going back to low 80's. I hope that is the theme this summer. Regular breaks from the HHH stuff makes a good summer round here. Looks like decent chance for boomers during the hot stretch. Much better than a strong ridge putting a lid on convection. I think 75% chance we get HW3....probably T-THU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 i'd lean wed-fri for now.. tomorrow could go either way. fri could go either way too i suppose, tho the overall trend with this system has been slower each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Pesky clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Zone forecast for BWI area has highs at 89 Wed and Thursday and only 86 on Friday. Persistent cloud deck so far with this particular pattern makes me lean toward staying under 90 up this way - or just touching 90/91 at best. At the least, sun has been hard to come by here since about Saturday, which has kept the daytime heating less than it might have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 howard ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 HW#3 may be on hold for the time being. I haven't dug in too deep with the models but from what I see it doesn't look like 90+ returns until mid-late next week. Even if we do hit the 90's this week it looks to be low 90's at best. Easy summer so far. My electric bill looks to stay friendly for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 the real heat is waiting for july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 \ scorcher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 death ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 death ridge went back and looked at what 850T were for the 1995 heat wave in the Midwest...27C across most of IA, southern WI, and northern IL...hopefully the Euro is too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It would be nice if we didn't start every friggen morning under cloudy skies... would help out verification quite a bit. howard ftw? Only if the pattern can hold in -NAO/-AO aaaaaaaaaaaaall summer... as soon as we go back to neutral/positive the heat will return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 It would be nice if we didn't start every friggen morning under cloudy skies... would help out verification quite a bit. Only if the pattern can hold in -NAO/-AO aaaaaaaaaaaaall summer... as soon as we go back to neutral/positive the heat will return. actually -NAO is often good for heat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 howard ftw? yes...bad call by me...maybe we get 2 days of 90+...maybe less?...hard to say..we should be flirting with 90 the next 2-3 days Just looked at the GFS/Euro as posted below and it looks brutal....hopefully they are wrong I think Howard's overarching idea is that future heat will come but will be limited in strength and duration compared to Heat Wave 2.....I agree and disagree....I am not sure we see 102 or even 100 again this summer, but I am somewhat confident that we see one more heat wave of 7-9 days...I don't think HW2 at 6 days will be our longest of the May-SEP period...the idea of transience is a good one though I think...not sure a death ridge can park itself for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 yes...bad call by me...maybe we get 2 days of 90+...maybe less?...hard to say..we should be flirting with 90 the next 2-3 days Just looked at the GFS/Euro as posted below and it looks brutal....hopefully they are wrong I think Howard's overarching idea is that future heat will come but will be limited in strength and duration compared to Heat Wave 2.....I agree and disagree....I am not sure we see 102 or even 100 again this summer, but I am somewhat confident that we see one more heat wave of 7-9 days...I don't think HW2 at 6 days will be our longest of the May-SEP period...the idea of transience is a good one though I think...not sure a death ridge can park itself for a week the euro has pushed the ridge east from a few runs ago... more like the gfs. if a bubble of 594 dm heights does come east, 100 is certainly possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 the euro has pushed the ridge east from a few runs ago... more like the gfs. if a bubble of 594 dm heights does come east, 100 is certainly possible i gave us an 80% chance of hitting 103+ this yr like 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Euro is now slower than the GFS but would get the heat here eventually....GFS is 90s/100 for a week starting day 9...but it is still fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Euro is now slower than the GFS but would get the heat here eventually....GFS is 90s/100 for a week starting day 9...but it is still fantasy range "delayed but not denied" I have to think that with it being that far out that it will mitigate a bit and hopefully not be that bad. edit: and I say that only based upon how this last HW was progged only to see it diminish in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It would be nice if we didn't start every friggen morning under cloudy skies... would help out verification quite a bit. Only if the pattern can hold in -NAO/-AO aaaaaaaaaaaaall summer... as soon as we go back to neutral/positive the heat will return. The -PNA has been a big help to the heat out east as well...and kept the West very cool. If we get a big +PNA ridge in summer, the NAO/AO is much less important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The -PNA has been a big help to the heat out east as well...and kept the West very cool. If we get a big +PNA ridge in summer, the NAO/AO is much less important. True... -PNA coupled with the +AMO = win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 "delayed but not denied" I have to think that with it being that far out that it will mitigate a bit and hopefully not be that bad. edit: and I say that only based upon how this last HW was progged only to see it diminish in intensity. agreed....12z GFS has backed off some and slowed down....for no other reason than I think it is a superior model, I will hug the Euro on this one.....it may be a case where the mean ridge stays over the drought areas, but climo plus lack of a trough allows us to be 89-94 for a period....we are going to hit 90-92 today with pretty weak 500mb ridging and partial cloudiness....we are entering a period that lasts until around 8/15 where 88+ is pretty easy even with a lot of mitigating factors.....and so you can get a lot of fluke 90-92 readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 12z Euro run is cool the whole way through..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.