EasternUSWX Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Mos is lower....what is the value of that site?...do you know anything about it? It just takes the raw info and plots it. MOS is always lower. I don't really use MOS cause it usually is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 MOS is now starting to pick up on the extreme heat: GFSX MOS (MEX) KDCA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 7/17/2011 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21| FRI 22| SAT 23| SUN 24 CLIMO X/N 90| 71 93| 76 95| 75 93| 77 98| 79 100| 79 99| 79 96 67 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Just for fun, here are the raw GFS numbers from the past 3.5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Just for fun, here are the raw GFS numbers from the past 3.5 days. You should put the average in there, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The heat might create it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 hot hot hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm going to put ice cubes in my drawers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 What's the chance that we get some cloud cover or a few storms during this thing? Wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 What's the chance that we get some cloud cover or a few storms during this thing? Wishful thinking? At peak.. Quite low. Best odds are as it's building in next few days. Then maybe when it breaks. Looks like GFS gives us a break after 7 days or so but builds in another after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 At peak.. Quite low. Best odds are as it's building in next few days. Then maybe when it breaks. Looks like GFS gives us a break after 7 days or so but builds in another after. Thanks, Ian. Definitely not taking the pup out to the dog park on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 down the wire today if we get started.. 89 last ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 looks like we missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 looks like we missed it South winds all afternoon. BWI got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's been trying to do this all year, that trough in SE canada has squashed the ridge pretty good until now. You guys enjoy the heat, I'm not coming back for awhile, dream scenario for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Great consistency on Friday being the peak, but we may luck out on the end of the wave. Really, the two overnight runs are more of a garden variety heat wave on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Friday is going to be nasty... probably will be one of the rare times we get close to excessive heat warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Great consistency on Friday being the peak, but we may luck out on the end of the wave. Really, the two overnight runs are more of a garden variety heat wave on the GFS. Euro is hotter on Sat/Sun than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Euro is hotter on Sat/Sun than the GFS. Saw that get a mention in the LWX disco... said it could be Friday repeats... and that an excessive heat watch could be issued by midweek. 102/70 is going to be downright ugly for Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Saw that get a mention in the LWX disco... said it could be Friday repeats... and that an excessive heat watch could be issued by midweek. 102/70 is going to be downright ugly for Friday... I'm very thankful I have softball at 8pm Friday rather than 6pm... I'm sure it won't help too much, but its better than full sun during the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The GEFS for 18Z Friday is really consistent in forecasting megaheat. The ensemble mean 925 mb temp is forecast to be 4 sigma near Dave and Ji's houses Such a strong signal in a mean suggests that we weenies at the conference will be staying inside looking for cold beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tough record high at DCA on Friday (103). 103 is rarefied air, a top-10 all-time temp in DC. BWI more attainable at 101. IAD's very likely to be broken (98). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The GEFS for 18Z Friday is really consistent in forecasting megaheat. The ensemble mean 925 mb temp is forecast to be 4 sigma near Dave and Ji's houses Such a strong signal in a mean suggests that we weenies at the conference will be staying inside looking for cold beer. Can't wait...I hope we can break a record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The GEFS for 18Z Friday is really consistent in forecasting megaheat. The ensemble mean 925 mb temp is forecast to be 4 sigma near Dave and Ji's houses Such a strong signal in a mean suggests that we weenies at the conference will be staying inside looking for cold beer. That goes triple for weatherwiz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tough record high at DCA on Friday (103). 103 is rarefied air, a top-10 all-time temp in DC. BWI more attainable at 101. IAD's very likely to be broken (98). I think we have a good shot at BWI's. If I wasn't worried about the GFS warm bias I'd be worried about the DCA record. 4 Sigma departures are rare especially on a day 5 mean forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z raw ensemble high temp ranges for Thu-Sun (7/21-24) at DCA: GFS: Thu: 92.2 - 101.6 Fri: 100.8 - 106.7 Sat: 92.2 - 105.0 Sun: 89.7 - 105.4 ECMWF: Thu: 91.6 - 105.9 Fri: 92.9 - 108.6 Sat: 94.3 - 106.7 Sun: 88.1 - 105.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tough record high at DCA on Friday (103). 103 is rarefied air, a top-10 all-time temp in DC. BWI more attainable at 101. IAD's very likely to be broken (98). Following up on all-time DC temps: Washington Area (ThreadEx Station) Extremes Highest Daily Maximum Temperature (degrees F) Days: 1/1 - 12/31 Years: 1872-2011 1 106 7/20/1930, 8/6/1918 3 105 8/17/1997, 7/10/1936 5 104 7/16/1988, 7/9/1936, 7/21/1926, 8/7/1918, 9/7/1881 10 103 7/6/1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z raw ensemble high temp ranges for Thu-Sun (7/21-24) at DCA: GFS: Thu: 92.2 - 101.6 Fri: 100.8 - 106.7 Sat: 92.2 - 105.0 Sun: 89.7 - 105.4 ECMWF: Thu: 91.6 - 105.9 Fri: 92.9 - 108.6 Sat: 94.3 - 106.7 Sun: 88.1 - 105.5 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow. I should also note that the ECMWF likes to throw a random large deviation run in there... the next lowest to that 92.9 on Friday is something in the 98-99 range. Seems like 100+ is almost a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I should also note that the ECMWF likes to throw a random large deviation run in there... the next lowest to that 92.9 on Friday is something in the 98-99 range. Seems like 100+ is almost a lock I think the most stunning aspect is that every GFS member takes us to at least 101 on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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