EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This is how I see it. Sunday-Tuesday is first heat. 90-96 temps likely. A MCS could be somewhere in PA into MD, have to watch that and back door front for Wednesday. Real heat come Thursday- Sunday and maybe into Monday as the ridge pushes eastward before getting squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 This is how I see it. Sunday-Tuesday is first heat. 90-96 temps likely. A MCS could be somewhere in PA into MD, have to watch that and back door front for Wednesday. Real heat come Thursday- Sunday and maybe into Monday as the ridge pushes eastward before getting squashed. And according to the long range gfs, it gets squashed for a few days, then builds back into a 594 ridge monster! Ughh...ugly ugly Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 0Z Euro is back to blast furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 0Z Euro is back to blast furnace. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Lets see how well the models do and how much continuity they have over the next week. I'll bump post this occasionally. If anyone wants to chime in with the Euro surface temps, feel free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Duration wise though. It seems right on track 6-10 days after recurve puts it in the 25th range and looks to be when the heat dies down. Wait, what? GFS and Euro both have the system/remnants out by the Aleutian Islands on the 25th... if anything it would either dissipate or reinforce the trough over the Pacific NW, which would have build the ridge downstream and cause warmer temps in the central/eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Wait, what? GFS and Euro both have the system/remnants out by the Aleutian Islands on the 25th... if anything it would either dissipate or reinforce the trough over the Pacific NW, which would have build the ridge downstream and cause warmer temps in the central/eastern U.S. I thought the rule of thumb was a Recieving typhoon means through in east 6-10 days. Not my specialty though. I just know it's going to be hot. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Lets see how well the models do and how much continuity they have over the next week. I'll bump post this occasionally. If anyone wants to chime in with the Euro surface temps, feel free. I don't have all the days but I know it showed 100-105 Friday, 105-110 sat and sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I thought the rule of thumb was a Recieving typhoon means through in east 6-10 days. Not my specialty though. I just know it's going to be hot. Lol Or you could just look at the models and see what they do with the system. Every TC is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Or you could just look at the models and see what they do with the system. Every TC is different. It pretty much makes sense as the latent heat that is released into the atmosphere from a tropical system (especially a powerful typhoon/hurricane) has downstream effects such as helping to build a ridge which then moves eastward in this case. Interesting stuff and how it is all tied together in one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It pretty much makes sense as the latent heat that is released into the atmosphere from a tropical system (especially a powerful typhoon/hurricane) has downstream effects such as helping to build a ridge which then moves eastward in this case. Interesting stuff and how it is all tied together in one way or another. So now you tell me how that affects our weather in the eastern U.S. in this particular setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 So now you tell me how that affects our weather in the eastern U.S. in this particular setup. It says it right there. Lol. It helps build the ridge then will push east as it recurves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It says it right there. Lol. It helps build the ridge then will push east as it recurves. You don't have it at all... It will reinforce a ridge currently over the central Pacific, which will in turn amplify the trough over the West Coast which will amplify the ridge over the central/eastern U.S. Of course, as you down the wave pattern the effects become less and less, so by the time its effects hit the eastern U.S. we're not looking at too much of an impact. As far as pushing the ridge east (I would hope the quote discusses the C. Pac. ridge, EDIT: unless he's discussing the end of next week when it's not really "recurving" anymore so much as getting absorbed back into the flow), that ridge isn't going to go far as the West Coast trough it pretty locked-in during the recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 You don't have it at all... It will reinforce a ridge currently over the central Pacific, which will in turn amplify the trough over the West Coast which will amplify the ridge over the central/eastern U.S. Of course, as you down the wave pattern the effects become less and less, so by the time its effects hit the eastern U.S. we're not looking at too much of an impact. As far as pushing the ridge east (I would hope the quote discusses the C. Pac. ridge, EDIT: unless he's discussing the end of next week when it's not really "recurving" anymore so much as getting absorbed back into the flow), that ridge isn't going to go far as the West Coast trough it pretty locked-in during the recurve. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Haha. I'll just stick to more of what I know. East coast weather. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100 to 105 degree temps on Friday of next week per the Euro... with DPs in the 60s that would really suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Lets see how well the models do and how much continuity they have over the next week. I'll bump post this occasionally. If anyone wants to chime in with the Euro surface temps, feel free. Are these numbers for a specific location? Let's have some fun with this and post how many days specific airports are 100+ degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100 to 105 degree temps on Friday of next week per the Euro... with DPs in the 60s that would really suck Is it even possible for us to get 100+ without a DP in the 60s? I ask because I honestly don't know, and doubt it could happen. That said, I'm not hopping on the furnace train, just like I don't hop on the frigid train in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Are these numbers for a specific location? Let's have some fun with this and post how many days specific airports are 100+ degrees Probably for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Are these numbers for a specific location? Let's have some fun with this and post how many days specific airports are 100+ degrees I would assume it's for DCA. Is it even possible for us to get 100+ without a DP in the 60s? I ask because I honestly don't know, and doubt it could happen. That said, I'm not hopping on the furnace train, just like I don't hop on the frigid train in the winter. Yes it can. Just looking at 2010 100+ summer highs and finding their dewpoints at the time of the highs (with ranges for when multiple hours were at 100+): Date: High/dewpoint (or dewpoint range) June 24: 100/66 July 6: 102/53-63 July 7: 102/63-65 July 24: 101/70-71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I would assume it's for DCA. Yes it can. Just looking at 2010 100+ summer highs and finding their dewpoints at the time of the highs (with ranges for when multiple hours were at 100+): Date: High/dewpoint (or dewpoint range) June 24: 100/66 July 6: 102/52-63 July 7: 102/63-65 July 24: 101/70-71 I think he means we don't get to 100 unless the DP is 60+. Usually not a dry heat here when it's 100+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think he means we don't get to 100 unless the DP is 60+. Usually not a dry heat here when it's 100+. True... re-reading it makes it seem that way. At any cost, you can see from July 6 that we were able to hit 100 with dewpoints as low as 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 True... I skimmed the post. At any cost, you can see from July 6 that we were able to hit 100 with dewpoints as low as 52. Was that in the AM or afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Was that in the AM or afternoon? Afternoon... saw temp/dews of 102/55 and 101/53 at 5pm and 6pm, respectively. Dewpoints had started in the 60s that morning/early afternoon before dropping off. Also, I made a mistake... the lowest dewpoint was 53, not 52. Corrected the earlier posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Was that in the AM or afternoon? lol...we hit 100 in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 lol...we hit 100 in the morning... It was 100 at noon that day... close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Afternoon... saw temp/dews of 102/55 and 101/53 at 5pm and 6pm, respectively. Dewpoints had started in the 60s that morning/early afternoon before dropping off. Also, I made a mistake... the lowest dewpoint was 53, not 52. Corrected the earlier posts. Thanks. That's pretty interesting. So we hit 100 with DPs in the 60s, but the temps stayed fairly level for a few hours as the DPs fell. Proves that you *can* get 100+ with DPs under 60, though it's kind of a backdoor way of getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think he means we don't get to 100 unless the DP is 60+. Usually not a dry heat here when it's 100+. you should post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z GFS likes the heat Friday-Mon... 24c 850s each day for us or at least nearby... long range, FWIW, doesn't show us really doing much better as heights don't really go below 588DM... which suggests to me a lot of 90-95 degree days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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