Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z Euro Op has 24-26C 850mb temps Thu+Fri and should continue into Sat, with winds out of the W/NW. That's upper 90s-mid 100s material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z Euro Op has 24-26C 850mb temps Thu+Fri and should continue into Sat, with winds out of the W/NW. That's upper 90s-mid 100s material. Euro has been high with the 850s at this range this summer, but there is no doubt that this ridge is going to be capable of nasty things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Euro has been high with the 850s at this range this summer, but there is no doubt that this ridge is going to be capable of nasty things. GFS is pretty much on the same page with it though so ya nasty things nasty things I fear are a coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Euro has been high with the 850s at this range this summer, but there is no doubt that this ridge is going to be capable of nasty things. I think part of the problem the Euro (and GFS) have been having at that range are handling the effects of the -AO that we have been inundated with (coming in more negative than forecast). Now we're in a +AO/neutral and looking at a neutral forecast, so we'll see what happens. This is also looking like the strongest ridge of the season further west, and we've already been able to hit mid/upper 90s with the last one as it pushed east, so I'm not sold on seeing cooler temperatures just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z Euro Op has 24-26C 850mb temps Thu+Fri and should continue into Sat, with winds out of the W/NW. That's upper 90s-mid 100s material. 140? 150? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 140? 150? You know what I really mean by mid 100s ---- I should also note that models are also looking for a +EPO/-WPO in that time frame, which both call for warmer temps. If the MJO can get a little active in phase 1 we'll have that to help out as well. *Edited to fix MJO forecast *EDITED AGAIN because my dumb ass doesn't know enough about the MJO and how tends to make it cooler in the Mid-Atlantic in phase 2 (if this is right): http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 You know what? I'm not sure what to believe with the MJO if it does show a signal... maps produced by my company for phases 1 and 2 for Jul 10-31 show warm anomalies favored for my region. I'll have to make those maps and post them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 You know what? I'm not sure what to believe with the MJO if it does show a signal... maps produced by my company for phases 1 and 2 for Jul 10-31 show warm anomalies favored for my region. I'll have to make those maps and post them Aha! Sweeeeeeeeeet: July composite anomalies... Phase 1: Phase 2: Granted, without any sort of amplitude we can't really use it, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 what? I'd like to think we all learned something here today... ...that I sometimes type too fast for my own good MJO phase 1 or 2 in July = warmer Mid-Atlantic. The current forecast - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml - goes from phase 1 to phase 2 this weekend before the signal weakens. If we can keep the signal more amplified, it would help support warmer temps. I should probably go to bed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I'd like to think we all learned something here today... ...that I sometimes type too fast for my own good MJO phase 1 or 2 in July = warmer Mid-Atlantic. The current forecast - http://www.cpc.ncep....k/MJO/mjo.shtml - goes from phase 1 to phase 2 this weekend before the signal weakens. If we can keep the signal more amplified, it would help support warmer temps. I should probably go to bed now ok, cool. i dont know much about the mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 ok, cool. i dont know much about the mjo. Neither do I It's next on my "things to fully learn for forecasting" list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 18z GFS seems to like sending the Central US into the oven through 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Heavy heavy toasty heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 18z GFS seems to like sending the Central US into the oven through 120 hrs Then puts us in it by Midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Heavy heavy toasty heat think the heats gonna be heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 think the heats gonna be heavy? Yes.... 100 degrees... heavy heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 i gotta dig up my 103+ prediction from earlier in the yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 think the heats gonna be heavy? 5,960 meters (19,553 ft) of air heavy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 FWIW, posted on the MU Storm Board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 updated through today, 7/13 Heat Wave = 3 days in a row 90+...it is an informal definition that is often used in this area 2010 Heat Waves: HW1: 6/12-14: 3 days, 92.6 average high HW2: 6/19-29: 11 days, 95.4 HW3: 7/4-9: 6 days, 97.5 HW4: 7/14-25: 12 days, 95.0 HW5: 8/4-6: 3 days, 93.7 HW6: 8/8-11: 4 days, 94.8 HW7: 8/29 - 9/3: 6 days, 94.5 HW8: 9/22-25: 4 days, 95 2011 Heat Waves HW1: 5/30-6/1: 3 days, 97.3 HW2: 6/7-12: 6 days, 94.7 HW3: 7/1 - 7/5: 5 days, 92.4 HW4: 7/9- 7/13, 5 days, 93.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 as stated earlier on in the summer the big difference locally seems to be the breaks in between. we're ahead of last yr pace on heat waves only because those first two were so long. i guess we might make that up a bit on the next one as it would seem to be shaping up to be the longest thus far, and perhaps the whole season given its timing. it's still a ways out there tho--at least our part of it. i guess the players are more or less on the field now or shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 i do think we could start this weekend.. sat might be pushing it based on 850s and sun perhaps as well, but gfs mos is already u 80s... it does pretty well for warm, maybe because it's always warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 as stated earlier on in the summer the big difference locally seems to be the breaks in between. we're ahead of last yr pace on heat waves only because those first two were so long. i guess we might make that up a bit on the next one as it would seem to be shaping up to be the longest thus far, and perhaps the whole season given its timing. it's still a ways out there tho--at least our part of it. i guess the players are more or less on the field now or shortly. I think we start in earnest on Monday if not Sunday....I guess the question is whether we get a 86-89 day or 2 in there due to cloud cover or some other transient feature...If July ended today it would be 4th warmest on record...after last June's record month, July is actually our most vulnerable summer month in terms of #1...record (1993, 2011) is only +3.3 vs 1981-2000 norms....At this point, I am going to root for a #1 July and hope (probably futile) that August is cool....Rain screwed us, but if we can get an overnight min of 80 from a somewhat unimpressive air mass last night, I think we can push it.....top 10-15 seems like pretty much a lock even if next week underperforms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Accuweather has 101 on July 21 and 22, 98 on July 23, and 100 on July 24 and 25 at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Euro backed off big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Euro backed off big time Ah just one run. Sure it will bounce around the next few day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 summer fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 summer fail Too bad the heat in summer is like our snows in winter...fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Wouldn't mind seeing the ovenheat back off a bit. summer fail Based on this, can we take the logical (?) next step and say "winter fail?" I know it wouldn't be a big stretch to make that call, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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