EasternUSWX Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 are you sure you're looking at today's 12z? I see 850s in the range of 19 to 21 C for those days...not exactly triple digit heat. I am looking at it on accuweather's accumodel and it is the 12Z run. Just reading off what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I am looking at it on accuweather's accumodel and it is the 12Z run. Just reading off what it says. yeah i don't have that info, just looking at 850s here. Euro has been (as usual) too warm in the 6 to 10 day frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 yeah i don't have that info, just looking at 850s here. Euro has been (as usual) too warm in the 6 to 10 day frame. GFS is not that hot but, still in the 95-100 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 GFS is not that hot but, still in the 95-100 range. unfortunately, it does like the big ridge is going to spread far enough east.... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011071212!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 The beginning of the pain. lol Would not want to be in SW AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The beginning of the pain. lol Would not want to be in SW AZ. Heck that's normal for Phoenix in mid-July. Plus it's a dry heat! I'd honestly choose 107 with 10% RH over 97 with 70 degree dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 0Z GFS looking hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Day 24 of 90+ in D.C. 11 this mo, 3 more to go to get to July avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Day 24 of 90+ in D.C. 11 this mo, 3 more to go to get to July avg. I may be stepping out on this one, but I think we'll get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks like GFS as well coming on board with eastern ridge of death to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I may be stepping out on this one, but I think we'll get there. Looks like a 3-5 day break.. we might still end up near last yr levels for 90+ in July at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z GFS looks like 90+ for 7-10 days or so. Not sure about the end period as the ridge weakens a bit but no major troughiness around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z GFS looks like 90+ for 7-10 days or so. Not sure about the end period as the ridge weakens a bit but no major troughiness around. Yup, it keep getting worse each run. The euro topping the cake with days 105+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yup, it keep getting worse each run. The euro topping the cake with days 105+ Hard to buy 105+... I can only see 18z/0z maps but maybe the first time I remember seeing a large 100+ contour over the area for 2 days in a row.. next thur/fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Hard to buy 105+... I can only see 18z/0z maps but maybe the first time I remember seeing a large 100+ contour over the area for 2 days in a row.. next thur/fri. Hot enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12Z GFS 19th: 92 20th: 93 21st: 96 22nd: 100 23rd: 103 24th: 103 25th: 101 http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KDCA Dew points 70+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 As long as we get 103 I'll be happy (well, not that happy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 90+ at 8 PM dear lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 As long as we get 103 I'll be happy (well, not that happy). I'm scared to see 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12Z GFS 19th: 92 20th: 93 21st: 96 22nd: 100 23rd: 103 24th: 103 25th: 101 When all is said and done, the highs on average will come in at least 3* cooler than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 When all is said and done, the highs on average will come in at least 3* cooler than that. Yeah that could be true. Heights are progged about as high as we see them.. coinciding with tail of warmest part of season. Those factors have to help perform. Not sure if the upper ridge is centered too far north initially for optimal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah that could be true. Heights are progged about as high as we see them.. coinciding with tail of warmest part of season. Those factors have to help perform. Not sure if the upper ridge is centered too far north initially for optimal? Still early yet plenty of time for it to adjust. Unfortunately it will probably have us very very hot. Excessive heat warnings for a large area likely if this comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah that could be true. Heights are progged about as high as we see them.. coinciding with tail of warmest part of season. Those factors have to help perform. Not sure if the upper ridge is centered too far north initially for optimal? That actually makes me sad. It only gets colder from here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Next week looks like a true heat wave is in the works. Models locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Euro Temps For DCA 19th: 100+ So 100 is probable 20th: 100+ 100 Probable 21st: 105+ 102-103 probable 22nd: 110+ (Umm) lol around 105 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Euro Temps For DCA 19th: 100+ So 100 is probable 20th: 100+ 100 Probable 21st: 105+ 102-103 probable 22nd: 110+ (Umm) lol around 105 possible. where do you get these numbers again? at this range even with agreement hard to say 100+ is "probable". still a somewhat infequent occurance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 where do you get these numbers again? at this range even with agreement hard to say 100+ is "probable". still a somewhat infequent occurance here. From accuweather on the euro graphics. CPC getting us started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 That sure is a classic heat ridge on the models. Looks like afternoon storms will be scarce too. I can't wait to see my electric bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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