jburns Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Epic time in all the X-mas storm threads! CR I hope you start all our winter threads. It will help us battle all our nina & nao problems. Nina, nino, models, climatology, BAH! I've given up on all of them and now use the only analog that seems to consistantly forecast our southeastern winters. The Exxon analog. The lower the price of propane, natural gas and heating oil the warmer the winter. The higher the price the colder it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Nina, nino, models, climatology, BAH! I've given up on all of them and now use the only analog that seems to consistantly forecast our southeastern winters. The Exxon analog. The lower the price of propane, natural gas and heating oil the warmer the winter. The higher the price the colder it will be. Actually there is some truth to that. Everyone might not know it, but long term fuel contracts are somewhat based on the predictions from the energy mets. On the flip side, I have seen their predictions be way off. Just look at last year, the energy mets were all in agreement that it would be a mild winter Of course they were basing it strictly off the strong La-Nina analogs. We all know how that turned out......It will be interesting to see what fuel prices do as we head towards winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I posted this I think 2 winters ago on Eastern and it's still true today for almost every winter storm in the southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Without Chili this dog means nothing. I posted this I think 2 winters ago on Eastern and it's still true today for almost every winter storm in the southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Ditto on the blank slate idea. Every winter is going to be the best one ever for me, the eternal winter optimist...the start of the next ice age...at least before the first freeze So much is relative to ones back yard. Got to love that blank slate!! T I love reading your "sleetspasms" lol. Thanks for the compliments too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I love reading your "sleetspasms" lol. Thanks for the compliments too. Thanks, and, you're welcome Not compliments though, just the truth I posted this I think 2 winters ago on Eastern and it's still true today for almost every winter storm in the southeast... Burger, every time I see this posted, it pains me to realize you put that screw right through my county, and my backyard Thanks, buddy T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I posted this I think 2 winters ago on Eastern and it's still true today for almost every winter storm in the southeast... Actually the biggest screw job of the year was probably in Raleigh during the January Storm. Of course I made out last winter in both events (actually heavier rates in the January event at 2 inches per hour) in Southern Pines. Now since I moved to the triangle I hope that isn't the case this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Without Chili this dog means nothing. I think it would look more reasonable with a foot-long hotdog covering the Appalachian Mountains. Mustard over the foothills. A few bird bread droppings east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Actually the biggest screw job of the year was probably in Raleigh during the January Storm. Of course I made out last winter in both events (actually heavier rates in the January event at 2 inches per hour) in Southern Pines. Now since I moved to the triangle I hope that isn't the case this season Raleigh did okay. It was west of Raleigh that really got screwed. We got less than 4" here in Chapel Hill, with parts of Wake County getting close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 I am thinking slightly warmer than last winter with slightly more precip. Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Without Chili this dog means nothing. I hate it when I get ZR on the edge of my bun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Raleigh did okay. It was west of Raleigh that really got screwed. We got less than 4" here in Chapel Hill, with parts of Wake County getting close to a foot. I think you're talking about the Christmas storm? Or total snowfall of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Thinking from the state climo office is that the winter may be a doulble La Nina (La Nina, La Nada, La Nina). Any analog years out there that match that pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Thinking from the state climo office is that the winter may be a doulble La Nina (La Nina, La Nada, La Nina). Any analog years out there that match that pattern? Since 1950 Once: 2000 - 2001. Similar ones that never quite had Nina status on the front end: 84 - 85, 67 - 68, and 62 - 63. IMO, 62-63 might be the best analog of all. It matches well on everything except for the second year nina thingy although 61-62 was a weak negative. It has a developing negative QBO during a nina, which seems to be rare. PDO and AMO were similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Thanks, and, you're welcome Not compliments though, just the truth Burger, every time I see this posted, it pains me to realize you put that screw right through my county, and my backyard Thanks, buddy T lol that was the point! I had to adjust the screw when I first made it as GA folks demanded it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Things are looking positive for some upslope snow in November this year. Not sold yet on what the core of winter may give us yet though. Personally, I would give up a bit on the tail end of winter to get a cold December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 As long as I get some snow here in Alabama, winter can end February 15 for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 I think you're talking about the Christmas storm? Or total snowfall of the season? Both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Things are looking positive for some upslope snow in November this year. Not sold yet on what the core of winter may give us yet though. Personally, I would give up a bit on the tail end of winter to get a cold December. In Knox last winter, two or three storms actually brought us more than 2" each time, but most of the snow nickle and dimed us from northwest flow events (which is what leads to good upslope snow). We ended up with about 11.5" for the year, but it certainly wasn't all at once and we didn't really have a good solid snow (to me that's more than 6"). They do bring abysmally cold days though, and typically there's no snow on the ground and it barely snows enough to cover anything. Rarely does a good NE flow bring us any real accumulating snows in the valley. To me, a good storm would be a quick change to snow or all snow, and cold enough so it's not very heavy. A good 12" would be something Knoxville hasn't seen in a while - and it used to get 18" snowstorms every 15 years or less. Footers happened a lot in the 1950s and 1960s. I will say this though, despite how dry it's been before and after 'Lee', it hasn't been very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Quick dumb question: Is it normal to get more ZR than Snow in a la nina winter vs a El Nino winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Quick dumb question: Is it normal to get more ZR than Snow in a la nina winter vs a El Nino winter. More mix in the Northeast areas ...and then the deep South around here... and down close to you.. rain. :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Frost and Freeze Warnings up over parts of the Northern Midwest. Another sign winter is on its way! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Frost and Freeze Warnings up over parts of the Northern Midwest. Another sign winter is on its way! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/ Parts of far north MN are going down to the low 20's. Winter is coming!!!! In Upstate NY they are going to be sub 40 in the Syracuse region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 for those in n ga, kirk mellish has a write up today about the potentials this winter Mellish Article the only thing that concerns me is how he mentions the last two winters didnt perform like anticipated, and that this one may be another one with a wetter and cooler nina. guess that means we will be back to our regular warm dry winter, esp if all the outlets forecast a colder and snowier winter lol * * * Firsts Paragraph Winter 2011 long-range research We are now two years removed from a moderate El Nino. The winter forecast for 2011-2012 is again a “La Nina” weighted outlook. History tells us what most La Nina winters are like. But history also shows there are some La Nina winters that behave outside what is typical. Last winter was an extreme example where atmospheric blocking patterns –AO/-NAO overwhelmed the La Nina signal until late February and March when the typical La Nina pattern took over for the end of winter and the spring. Last year was a strong La Nina by most measures yet behaved unlike almost any strong La Nina winter in history (Black swan event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Sleet in the forecast for Northern MN later today and tonight. Along with temps in the low to mid 20's. brrr, winter is showing up early!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 for those in n ga, kirk mellish has a write up today about the potentials this winter Mellish Article the only thing that concerns me is how he mentions the last two winters didnt perform like anticipated, and that this one may be another one with a wetter and cooler nina. guess that means we will be back to our regular warm dry winter, esp if all the outlets forecast a colder and snowier winter lol * * * Firsts Paragraph Winter 2011 long-range research We are now two years removed from a moderate El Nino. The winter forecast for 2011-2012 is again a “La Nina” weighted outlook. History tells us what most La Nina winters are like. But history also shows there are some La Nina winters that behave outside what is typical. Last winter was an extreme example where atmospheric blocking patterns –AO/-NAO overwhelmed the La Nina signal until late February and March when the typical La Nina pattern took over for the end of winter and the spring. Last year was a strong La Nina by most measures yet behaved unlike almost any strong La Nina winter in history (Black swan event). Or....we could completely perform up to and beyond all expectations, and get what D.C. has been getting lately, lol. I'm going with that A winter for several ages..wolves in the village snow and cold...the new ice age... I'm going with Calc's clean slate approach! At least until the first January 80 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I'm curious to hear what ya'll consider the start of winter to be. For me its December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I'm curious to hear what ya'll consider the start of winter to be. For me its December 1st. December 1st for me also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 I'm curious to hear what ya'll consider the start of winter to be. For me its December 1st. End of the SEC Championship game...or the end of the Iron Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 End of the SEC Championship game...or the end of the Iron Bowl. The start of met. winter is considered Dec 1st. That's what I go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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