Winter 2011-2012

[SoCoWx]

Last years -NAO was exceptional, it was NOT a normal -NAO. It was very negative for a very long time, and it kept building back in. The idea that even with a -NAO that we will have that much blocking again is a hard pill to swallow. As for Solar activity it is MUCH higher the past year than it was the year before last winter, regardless of if it is where it should be, it's still much higher. We can have a -NAO again and have it not translate to the type of winter we had last year, easily. If it is not as strong which I think is likely then we will not have as much cold. I do think this winter will have cold periods due to -NAO but I don't think the blocking will hold on like it did last year. More of a transitional pattern this year would make sense if we do indeed end up with with periods of -NAO. But the same blocking as last year, I really don't see it.

Look back at La nina years with a -NAO and you should find that often times the -NAO is not enough to overcome the typical La Nina pattern for the southeast. Last year was a fluke and I don't see the southeast repeating the epic winter of last year given that La Nina is once again back...

Must've been a widely known fluke then. Because I recall near every Winter Forecast I read last Autumn predicting that the NAO would be strong enough to trump the pattern.

You obviously weren't around for the Winter of 1964 (I wasn't either) but that Winter completed a stretch of 3 solid years of blocking....read Bluewaves thread about 3rd year blocking in the NYC Metro Subforum. I highly recommend it.

We can say all we want that we're "due" for a dud. But as someone else stated...there's always a chance youll come up with heads again when you flip the coin.

[calculus1]

I'm just going to come out and say it, we in the southeast are looking down the barrel of a dry and seasonably warm winter this year. I doubt a strong La Nina plays out the same way it did last year.....I also doubt we get a third good winter in a row, this is the southeast and we are spoiled from the last two winters.... We had very low solar activity for a couple years before last winter and one of the most epic -NAO's last season. Solar activity is back up and a repeat of last years blocking would be quite the feat....

I know this statement is not going to win me any praise but it is what it is as they say.

I never said we were due for a normal Southeast winter. I said another snowy winter is unlikely because frankly it is when you look at the fact we are going to be in a strong La Nina this year. I was not saying we were overdue for a normal winter. Repeating last years strange winter of being cold and snowy in a La Nina year is my reason to think that we go back to a more normal winter, not the fact that a third year would be hard to pull off, even though it would be.... If we were headed into a El Nino year this winter with all the other factors playing in I could easily see a third year in a row of a great winter. But that is not the case at all. Climo does need to be factored in, if that is saying we are due for a normal winter then so be it...

I think that we were both commenting on that original statement you made about being "spoiled." Your reasons for predicting a "normal" winter are much better laid out in other locations where you discuss the NAO and sun activity, among other things. Your belief in an upcoming "normal" SE winter is much better substantiated by these arguments than the fact that the past two winters have somehow spoiled us. Anyway, I appreciate your willingness to put your forecast out there for debate. I'm eagerly awaiting the opinions/forecasts of our "red-taggers" too.

[LithiaWx]

Must've been a widely known fluke then. Because I recall near every Winter Forecast I read last Autumn predicting that the NAO would be strong enough to trump the pattern.

You obviously weren't around for the Winter of 1964 (I wasn't either) but that Winter completed a stretch of 3 solid years of blocking....read Bluewaves thread about 3rd year blocking in the NYC Metro Subforum. I highly recommend it.

We can say all we want that we're "due" for a dud. But as someone else stated...there's always a chance youll come up with heads again when you flip the coin.

It's not a coin flip.... It's not a 50/50 shot so the analogy does not fit. I'm not saying it's impossible for a colder winter again I think it's highly unlikely and rightfully so.

Edit : Many of the forecasts last year were for a warm and dry southeast winter, I don't remember but one or two forecasts that went against typical La Nina Climo for the southeast. I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at last season but the ones I saw almost all busted. And again, show me were I used the words "due" for a normal winter please.

[LithiaWx]

I think that we were both commenting on that original statement you made about being "spoiled." Your reasons for predicting a "normal" winter are much better laid out in other locations where you discuss the NAO and sun activity, among other things. Your belief in an upcoming "normal" SE winter is much better substantiated by these arguments than the fact that the past two winters have somehow spoiled us. Anyway, I appreciate your willingness to put your forecast out there for debate. I'm eagerly awaiting the opinions/forecasts of our "red-taggers" too.

Thank you, and I hear you, I knew posting that I thought we were in store for a more normal winter or even a warmer and dryer than normal one would not go over very well. The fact is though we are spoiled from the last two winters, I think that gives many the false notion that we are going to have good winters consistently when a normal winter has little and sometimes no snow for MANY of us. The fact is though you are right the reasons for my thinking a more normal winter this year are tied into Solar activity and ENSO. The "spoiled" part is more of a psychological thing I think is affecting many folks in the southeast, perception that we will get another good winter after two very good ones, people forget very quickly what a normal winter is like around here, after two of the coldest and snowiest in recorded history for the Southeast.

[SoCoWx]

It's not a coin flip.... It's not a 50/50 shot so the analogy does not fit. I'm not saying it's impossible for a colder winter again I think it's highly unlikely and rightfully so.

Edit : Many of the forecasts last year were for a warm and dry southeast winter, I don't remember but one or two forecasts that went against typical La Nina Climo for the southeast. I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at last season but the ones I saw almost all busted. And again, show me were I used the words "due" for a normal winter please.

You didn't therefore I'll show you nothing.

December was the MAIN Winter month last Winter. If it hadn't been for that month and its snow, many forecast wouldve been a lot closer to fruition.

And nearly all the forecast mentioned how the NAO would trump the La Nina pattern that month. I'm speaking solely from a snow perspective, not a cold one.

This year and last are very similar. So I'm not going to say it's impossible. I agree for YOU all its not likely. But there's always the possibility.

[SoCoWx]

Thank you, and I hear you, I knew posting that I thought we were in store for a more normal winter or even a warmer and dryer than normal one would not go over very well. The fact is though we are spoiled from the last two winters, I think that gives many the false notion that we are going to have good winters consistently when a normal winter has little and sometimes no snow for MANY of us. The fact is though you are right the reasons for my thinking a more normal winter this year are tied into Solar activity and ENSO. The "spoiled" part is more of a psychological thing I think is affecting many folks in the southeast, perception that we will get another good winter after two very good ones, people forget very quickly what a normal winter is like around here, after two of the coldest and snowiest in recorded history for the Southeast.

Well I guess I'm lucky then. My snowfall in an average Winter is near a foot and the average Winter temperature is in the 40's.

[LithiaWx]

Well I guess I'm lucky then. My snowfall in an average Winter is near a foot and the average Winter temperature is in the 40's.

You are... Outside the mountains the majority of GA, AL, MS, TN, NC, SC only average a couple inches a year or so.....

[SoCoWx]

On a sidenote: I KNOW nobody listens to them or reads them...I get them from my father. Anyway, last year the two Farmers Almanacs were a lot closer to what happened than anyone else really. They do agree with you in a sense Marietta predicting NEAR-NORMAL snowfall in the SE. But for where I am in the Mid-Atl they're predicting AN snowfall again.

Just a little something to think about. They've been wrong before. Unlike what many believe about them, they DO NOT use weather folklore to forecast. They discuss it, but dont use it. They always factor in ENSO, Solar Activity, etc.

So take it with a grain of salt. I am.

[LithiaWx]

On a sidenote: I KNOW nobody listens to them or reads them...I get them from my father. Anyway, last year the two Farmers Almanacs were a lot closer to what happened than anyone else really. They do agree with you in a sense Marietta predicting NEAR-NORMAL snowfall in the SE. But for where I am in the Mid-Atl they're predicting AN snowfall again.

Just a little something to think about. They've been wrong before. Unlike what many believe about them, they DO NOT use weather folklore to forecast. They discuss it, but dont use it. They always factor in ENSO, Solar Activity, etc.

So take it with a grain of salt. I am.

I don't think we are too far off in our thoughts. I think this is all about you being in between the SE and Mid-Atlantic. My thoughts of the southeast don't normally include VA. We can disagree amicably, you will never hear me personally insult someones forecast, sure it might be different but I still respect the person regardless..

[SoCoWx]

I don't think we are too far off in our thoughts. I think this is all about you being in between the SE and Mid-Atlantic. My thoughts of the southeast don't normally include VA. We can disagree amicably, you will never hear me personally insult someones forecast, sure it might be different but I still respect the person regardless..

Basically. When people discuss the Mid-Atlantic, they're not usually taking about the southern part of VA...

And that's what I'm trying to say is I think here we could see a near normal or slightly colder than normal Winter again and MAYBE make out ok with snow.

[Cold Rain]

Can you work your magic again?

We'll see what we can do. I think we'll end up with a decent Winter after all is said and done.

[griteater]

If this tread is any indicator, it's going to be a long winter on here.

I agree with the comments that the majority of the winter outlooks originated out of the SE for last year indicated above to way above avg temps, with nina being the main driver. I do remember HKYWX's outlook saying that he thought the -NAO would keep the above avg temps associated with nina in check.

[griteater]

We'll see what we can do. I think we'll end up with a decent Winter after all is said and done.

I must have missed that one Cold Rain - did you give a Joe Namath guarantee on the Christmas Day storm when things weren't looking so good?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I never said we were due for a normal Southeast winter. I said another snowy winter is unlikely because frankly it is when you look at the fact we are going to be in a strong La Nina this year. I was not saying we were overdue for a normal winter. Repeating last years strange winter of being cold and snowy in a La Nina year is my reason to think that we go back to a more normal winter, not the fact that a third year would be hard to pull off, even though it would be.... If we were headed into a El Nino year this winter with all the other factors playing in I could easily see a third year in a row of a great winter. But that is not the case at all. Climo does need to be factored in, if that is saying we are due for a normal winter then so be it...

Who cares if we repeat last winter or not ? Even if we end up with half the snowfall we got last winter we'll still be above normal in terms of snowfall !! A great winter in GA is 2 inches ! Last fall I listened to almost everyone say our chances for snow were near 0% and that we were headed for one of the warmest winters ever. I refuse to ever listen to a seasonal forecast again. Last fall proved to me that they are useless.

[LithiaWx]

Who cares if we repeat last winter or not ? Even if we end up with half the snowfall we got last winter we'll still be above normal in terms of snowfall !! A great winter in GA is 2 inches ! Last fall I listened to almost everyone say our chances for snow were near 0% and that we were headed for one of the warmest winters ever. I refuse to ever listen to a seasonal forecast again. Last fall proved to me that they are useless.

You are comical, they are not useless and there are plenty of scholarly papers written to prove you are wrong. My forecast might be useless to you but there are plenty of very respected people who can forecast generalities many months before it happens. There are people actually paid for that sole purpose. There is even a branch of meteorology dedicated to it.

I fear I have opened Pandora's box and there is no way to close it until winter is over. Sorry guys.... God forbid someone forecast something other than an epic winter filled with wall to wall snowstorms for the southeast. It isn't the first winter forecast to not be epic and I guarantee you it won't be the last this season either.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You are comical, they are not useless and there are plenty of scholarly papers written to prove you are wrong. My forecast might be useless to you but there are plenty of very respected people who can forecast generalities many months before it happens. There are people actually paid for that sole purpose. There is even a branch of meteorology dedicated to it.

I fear I have opened Pandora's box and there is no way to close it until winter is over. Sorry guys.... God forbid someone forecast something other than an epic winter filled with wall to wall snowstorms for the southeast. It isn't the first winter forecast to not be epic and I guarantee you it won't be the last this season either.

I don't even know why people care about seasonal forecasts. We can have the warmest winter ever and still have 10 inches of snow. Some of our coldest winters ever have resulted in little or no snow, while some of the warmest winters have resulted in above normal snow.

[Amos83]

Looks like come winter time my "ignore" list will have several new names on it..... it's freaking early September and the weenies are already out in force.

[poptones]

Who cares if we repeat last winter or not ? Even if we end up with half the snowfall we got last winter we'll still be above normal in terms of snowfall !! A great winter in GA is 2 inches ! Last fall I listened to almost everyone say our chances for snow were near 0% and that we were headed for one of the warmest winters ever. I refuse to ever listen to a seasonal forecast again. Last fall proved to me that they are useless.

is this the same kind of logic that states that models are useless when they wiff on a storm, or when that beautiful white cataclysm they have hitting five days out doesn't actually happen cause the phase was two hours late? models are irreplaceable as tools but our understand of meteorology is far, far too lacking to conjure up a system that precisely replicates ol Ma Nature any time soon; even if we did this, its solutions would still be contingent on the accuracy of the data being plugged in. the amount of error that piles up after even two simulated days in model land is huge and this doesn't even factor in the amount of data that isn't being input due to the fact that we just don't have access to it. ensemble forecasting was a step in the direction toward mitigating the inherent inaccuracy here but were still a long ways away. people far more qualified than I take a string of solutions, cross check with common sense, find the flaws, and go from there when making a forecast.

likewise with seasonal forecasts; you take what the models are advertising for your chosen pet acronyms, analyze past analogs and any number of other things and go from there. the people that were forecasting a warm winter in the southeast aren't idiots; very little indicated that yall in georgia were gonna luck out the way you did. the flaws in getting pissy that MY snowstorm model X was advertising 5 days in advance didn't verify carry over when a seasonal forecast busts. you go based on the information you have with the understanding that nature can and will throw a giant wrench in the forecast, whether that forecast is one you read or one you put out. some people are going to weigh one variable in their forecast more than the next guy (or gal!) due to us just not knowing how things work, ya know? the more forecast "failures" there are, the more this or that teleconnection is found to impact the other side of the globe, the more your favorite forecaster has to admit a bust because he under/overestimated the impact X would have; the more we fail, the more we learn and the better that idiot meteorologist's forecast is gonna be next time.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

OK.......It is still too early to nail down the exact pattern but, I will say a couple of things. First, it looks like La-Nina conditions will exist but it is still up for debate as to how strong it will get. Next is analogs for second-year Ninas. You might be surprised to learn that second-year Ninas are considerably colder than first-year Ninas for our part of the country. Now, I am not ready to jump on the cold and snow train just yet but, the analogs have to be weighted to at least some degree. Last is the NAO, I still feel that we have begun a long-term period of high lattitude blocking that will dominate the pattern this winter and prevent the usual warm and dry Nina. We will know a lot more once we see the Fall pattern set-up and how the Enso drama unfolds.

[okie333]

It's not a coin flip.... It's not a 50/50 shot so the analogy does not fit. I'm not saying it's impossible for a colder winter again I think it's highly unlikely and rightfully so.

Edit : Many of the forecasts last year were for a warm and dry southeast winter, I don't remember but one or two forecasts that went against typical La Nina Climo for the southeast. I'm not sure what forecast you were looking at last season but the ones I saw almost all busted. And again, show me were I used the words "due" for a normal winter please.

I think he only read my forecasts last year lol

[dsaur]

..............I'm excited about what the winter could hold, as I always am at this time of the year (even though we're really just entering fall!). We start with our blank slate of no snow at all and build on it (hopefully) throughout the winter. I like to use a total of 10 inches of snowfall as my measuring stick for a "good" winter, but that's obviously very much location/elevation/perspective dependent for each individual. Anyway, "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..."

Ditto on the blank slate idea. Every winter is going to be the best one ever for me, the eternal winter optimist...the start of the next ice age...at least before the first freeze The winter I beat Joe's totals, and just laugh and laugh

I have a couple of criteria for a "good winter". Sleet. Then snow if I can't get sleet. Then extended cold. In that order. I've seen lots of winters, but never one without a few weeks worth of cold days and nights, and never one without precip. I've seen lots of winters without sleet, or snow, or the dreaded zrain (Larry will probably tell me not near as many as I remember, lol.) Down this far, a great percentage of the chance for frozen precip. is timing. Other than that my best chance of cold weather is in winter...and every winter I get a couple of cold nights when sleet and snow is possible, if moisture is about. And on those nights I'll be happy as a clam, hoping for great things.

So much is relative to ones back yard. Last year was great for many, but I was uneasy with it. It ended in early Feb. so I lost out on a lot of the cold I dearly love, and the mid winter the year before was wonderful because of it's real good cold. And the snow that slammed folks from Atl. north saw fit to mock me with a mere inch, on two occasions. Normally that would be an epic winter to me, a deep south boy, but my expectations were raised by great blocking showing up early, thus boosting my timing possibilities; and, it did snow and sleet a bit in Tonyville, but as I couldn't sled on it, it just isn't good enough Just bad luck, and timing, that I caught the dreaded dry slot, twice, which can't be predicted too far out. Robert's great at it though.

Still, like I say it is all relative, because the biggest event for me, and probably the thing I'll always remember about last winter (the winter that could have easily been so much more for me, but wasn't) , is snow for the first time of any real consequence on Christmas (I saw a danged White Christmas, lol, even if it was only an inch..it was real purty), though I couldn't sled on it. And Coldrain's epic call on that snow. I genuflect like an involuntary tick when I see his name, lol, because of that crazy, nutball prediction

And that gets me to predictions. I listen to them all with great respect, and interest, but only a few will go on with me for a good while, so far anyway. The Atl. weekend tv met lady that called the Blizzard the Friday before (I mean, really, a blizzard in Ga.?), Larry's call on Savannah snow, Coldrain's Christmas snow, and Roberts general way of getting his calls right these past few winters I've had the pleasure to be able to read him. But all of these are maybe a week or so out....and it's because down here it is all about timing. Can't predict that months out. Lol, if I get 6 inches of sleet during an historic warm, dry winter, I'll be squeeling with sledding joy, while most of the rest of folks are mad as heck Got to love that blank slate!! T

[calculus1]

Ditto on the blank slate idea. Every winter is going to be the best one ever for me, the eternal winter optimist...the start of the next ice age...at least before the first freeze The winter I beat Joe's totals, and just laugh and laugh

I have a couple of criteria for a "good winter". Sleet. Then snow if I can't get sleet. Then extended cold. In that order. I've seen lots of winters, but never one without a few weeks worth of cold days and nights, and never one without precip. I've seen lots of winters without sleet, or snow, or the dreaded zrain (Larry will probably tell me not near as many as I remember, lol.) Down this far, a great percentage of the chance for frozen precip. is timing. Other than that my best chance of cold weather is in winter...and every winter I get a couple of cold nights when sleet and snow is possible, if moisture is about. And on those nights I'll be happy as a clam, hoping for great things.

So much is relative to ones back yard. Last year was great for many, but I was uneasy with it. It ended in early Feb. so I lost out on a lot of the cold I dearly love, and the mid winter the year before was wonderful because of it's real good cold. And the snow that slammed folks from Atl. north saw fit to mock me with a mere inch, on two occasions. Normally that would be an epic winter to me, a deep south boy, but my expectations were raised by great blocking showing up early, thus boosting my timing possibilities; and, it did snow and sleet a bit in Tonyville, but as I couldn't sled on it, it just isn't good enough Just bad luck, and timing, that I caught the dreaded dry slot, twice, which can't be predicted too far out. Robert's great at it though.

Still, like I say it is all relative, because the biggest event for me, and probably the thing I'll always remember about last winter (the winter that could have easily been so much more for me, but wasn't) , is snow for the first time of any real consequence on Christmas (I saw a danged White Christmas, lol, even if it was only an inch..it was real purty), though I couldn't sled on it. And Coldrain's epic call on that snow. I genuflect like an involuntary tick when I see his name, lol, because of that crazy, nutball prediction

And that gets me to predictions. I listen to them all with great respect, and interest, but only a few will go on with me for a good while, so far anyway. The Atl. weekend tv met lady that called the Blizzard the Friday before (I mean, really, a blizzard in Ga.?), Larry's call on Savannah snow, Coldrain's Christmas snow, and Roberts general way of getting his calls right these past few winters I've had the pleasure to be able to read him. But all of these are maybe a week or so out....and it's because down here it is all about timing. Can't predict that months out. Lol, if I get 6 inches of sleet during an historic warm, dry winter, I'll be squeeling with sledding joy, while most of the rest of folks are mad as heck Got to love that blank slate!! T

Hey, man, that was great! I got a good laugh out of reading your comments, but it's so true. Each person's measuring stick is going to be quite different based on what constitutes a "normal" winter for their locale. Being several hundred miles north of you, I do get the chance for more snow on average; thus, it takes more to make me happy. It just shows me that we should each appreciate what we have though, because we're always going to be better off than someone out there. Just like you've got better snow chances than someone living in the panhandle. I'm going to have to figure out how to add your one line to my signature, though:

"...My best chance of cold weather is in the winter!" Classic!

[Gastonwxman]

If there's one thing I believe I mentioned a couple of times during the previous winter it's this... I do not need an epic blizzard or anything of the sort to satisfy me for the winter. As long as I reach my average I'm fine, which would only take 1 huge event or several 1-2" events. Last winter and the 09-10 season I (and a good chunk of us) we're spoiled. Example: The 3-1/2 2009 event. Not only was that my first time witnessing thundersnow but around 9"? Much more than what I would have been happy with. How about our Christmas storm? Now I've never got to experience a White Christmas but despite the few inches I received, I didn't care. It snowed on a holiday I thought I would never see such an event but then of course came the January 10-11 event. 7 inches accumulated before the sleet/frz. rain pelt it but man alive was it great. Again that season dropped more than I wanted. For now, none of us can be certain what this upcoming winter will bring but one thing is for sure, and that is the fact that we will all be waiting and watching for any opportunity of wintry shenanigans. Even if it doesn't happen, at least it's always fun tracking them, correct? Your answer should be yes. Let's just see what Ma Nature has in store and with that, I say: BRING IT ON!

[strongwxnc]

No doubt! Lol.

I stop paying a ton if attention to seasonal forecasts. Not because I wanted them to paint a snowy winter, I just do not trust any winter seasonal forecast. Living where I do, I do not trust any winter forecast that goes 24 hours into the future!

But, I will read the long term outlooks, just with my salt block

Looks like come winter time my "ignore" list will have several new names on it..... it's freaking early September and the weenies are already out in force.

[WilkesboroDude]

Climatological averages for snow is nonsense to me. I am very optimistic and I feel confident we will be tracking some winter weather despite any negative seasonal outlook by anyone.

[dsaur]

Hey, man, that was great! I got a good laugh out of reading your comments, but it's so true. Each person's measuring stick is going to be quite different based on what constitutes a "normal" winter for their locale. Being several hundred miles north of you, I do get the chance for more snow on average; thus, it takes more to make me happy. It just shows me that we should each appreciate what we have though, because we're always going to be better off than someone out there. Just like you've got better snow chances than someone living in the panhandle. I'm going to have to figure out how to add your one line to my signature, though:

"...My best chance of cold weather is in the winter!" Classic!

Lol, it's yours Glad you enjoyed my little sleetspasm. I get really jacked over winter. It's like my cells are waking up from panic mode. The older I get the less I like summer. Yet I'm not so sure I could walk the walk. I kid with Joe, but the boy's one tough guy. He goes for weeks getting snow blowing sideways and temps around 0. Sure I'd love it for a month, if it didn't kill me. But 100 inches of snow in wind that won't let you enjoy it fully, might be more than I could deal with for a whole winter. I expect I'd be ready to get back to the tame I do envy you Carolina folks your good weather, just maybe not the SnoRanger Joe variety, lol. Now when I was 30, oh, yeah! And even tough Joe sneaks off to Tahiti in winter

Sandwiched in between 80+ days of over 90 this summer, I got a day when it was cloudy and mid 70's. Got to love a good anomaly. And there is always a chance for one even in a hot, dry winter. Tony

[Cold Rain]

I must have missed that one Cold Rain - did you give a Joe Namath guarantee on the Christmas Day storm when things weren't looking so good?

Yeah, something like that. We had a good time last Christmas. This year, my thoughts so far on this upcoming Winter echo what CAD_Wedge_NC said above. We will have some fun this Winter.

[NavarreDon]

Yeah, something like that. We had a good time last Christmas. This year, my thoughts so far on this upcoming Winter echo what CAD_Wedge_NC said above. We will have some fun this Winter.

Epic time in all the X-mas storm threads! CR I hope you start all our winter threads. It will help us battle all our nina & nao problems.

[eyewall]

This was posted on the NWS website main page:

...NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back...

Published: Thu, 08 Sep 2011 14:26:47 EDT

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisor

[buckeyefan1]

Ditto on the blank slate idea. Every winter is going to be the best one ever for me, the eternal winter optimist...the start of the next ice age...at least before the first freeze The winter I beat Joe's totals, and just laugh and laugh

I have a couple of criteria for a "good winter". Sleet. Then snow if I can't get sleet. Then extended cold. In that order. I've seen lots of winters, but never one without a few weeks worth of cold days and nights, and never one without precip. I've seen lots of winters without sleet, or snow, or the dreaded zrain (Larry will probably tell me not near as many as I remember, lol.) Down this far, a great percentage of the chance for frozen precip. is timing. Other than that my best chance of cold weather is in winter...and every winter I get a couple of cold nights when sleet and snow is possible, if moisture is about. And on those nights I'll be happy as a clam, hoping for great things.

So much is relative to ones back yard. Last year was great for many, but I was uneasy with it. It ended in early Feb. so I lost out on a lot of the cold I dearly love, and the mid winter the year before was wonderful because of it's real good cold. And the snow that slammed folks from Atl. north saw fit to mock me with a mere inch, on two occasions. Normally that would be an epic winter to me, a deep south boy, but my expectations were raised by great blocking showing up early, thus boosting my timing possibilities; and, it did snow and sleet a bit in Tonyville, but as I couldn't sled on it, it just isn't good enough Just bad luck, and timing, that I caught the dreaded dry slot, twice, which can't be predicted too far out. Robert's great at it though.

Still, like I say it is all relative, because the biggest event for me, and probably the thing I'll always remember about last winter (the winter that could have easily been so much more for me, but wasn't) , is snow for the first time of any real consequence on Christmas (I saw a danged White Christmas, lol, even if it was only an inch..it was real purty), though I couldn't sled on it. And Coldrain's epic call on that snow. I genuflect like an involuntary tick when I see his name, lol, because of that crazy, nutball prediction

And that gets me to predictions. I listen to them all with great respect, and interest, but only a few will go on with me for a good while, so far anyway. The Atl. weekend tv met lady that called the Blizzard the Friday before (I mean, really, a blizzard in Ga.?), Larry's call on Savannah snow, Coldrain's Christmas snow, and Roberts general way of getting his calls right these past few winters I've had the pleasure to be able to read him. But all of these are maybe a week or so out....and it's because down here it is all about timing. Can't predict that months out. Lol, if I get 6 inches of sleet during an historic warm, dry winter, I'll be squeeling with sledding joy, while most of the rest of folks are mad as heck Got to love that blank slate!! T

Great blocking, perfect timing, epic calls, hawt pbp's late at night and sharing it all with the SE CREW = A priceless winter "guaranteed" as CR would say