Winter 2011-2012

[GaWx]

The subsurface data is never a good predictor for ENSO outside of short term trends. At this point I have no clue and neither does anyone what the DJF average will be. The ENSO models are all pretty set on a neutral DJF. Average of the stat' and dyn' models is -.2. That said, this argument is the reason why I wait till late Oct' to attempt an outlook. By that point it's much more clear.

I'm wild guessing weak Nina (as of now), which actually has been the 2nd coldest ENSO stage for E US winters since 1894-5 (behind my favorite weak Nino). The biggest key will be getting a

-NAO, whose chances actually looks promising based on the -NAO summer.

[HKY_WX]

I'm wild guessing weak Nina (as of now), which actually has been the 2nd coldest ENSO stage for E US winters since 1894-5 (behind my favorite weak Nino). The biggest key will be getting a

-NAO, whose chances actually looks promising based on the -NAO summer.

We'll see Larry. If not neutral I would definitely favor weak nina vs weak nino. We'll see what goes down as fall arrives.

[DaculaWeather]

Fall Outlook is now out my blog, check it out.

http://weatherintoro...th-america.html

Any questions, ask me here or on my blog.

Winter outlook will be released sometime next week.

If that's you in the picture... I'll believe whatever you say!

[NCBlizzard]

Saw this today from the NWS...

"La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (degree C) for the week centered on Aug. 31, 2011, indicate the re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110908_lanina.html

[SoCoWx]

Saw this today from the NWS...

"La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (degree C) for the week centered on Aug. 31, 2011, indicate the re-emergence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode."

http://www.noaanews....908_lanina.html

You want to put some weight into what Nina's typically bring. However, it should not be the sole basis of a forecast. To simply say that it brings warm, dry conditions in the South is a little comical. I think last Winter proved that the the oscillations can rule the roost if they choose. But I guess NOAA didn't get the memo.

[LithiaWx]

You want to put some weight into what Nina's typically bring. However, it should not be the sole basis of a forecast. To simply say that it brings warm, dry conditions in the South is a little comical. I think last Winter proved that the the oscillations can rule the roost if they choose. But I guess NOAA didn't get the memo.

huh? They are forecasting La Nina to come back they are not forecasting specifics for winter yet. All they did was lay out the general climo for a La Nina year. Nowhere in that article did they say all this translates to a typical La Nina year weather wise..... They even say Winter forecast to be released in October....

[SoCoWx]

huh? They are forecasting La Nina to come back they are not forecasting specifics for winter yet. All they did was lay out the general climo for a La Nina year. Nowhere in that article did they say all this translates to a typical La Nina year weather wise..... They even say Winter forecast to be released in October....

No, no, no. You're misunderstanding what I said. I'm stating they will forecast atypical Nina climo for this Winter because any time there's a La Nina that's what they do. They go with atypical Nina conditions as if every Nina year is the same. It's a petpeeve of mine...it just annoys me.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

huh? They are forecasting La Nina to come back they are not forecasting specifics for winter yet. All they did was lay out the general climo for a La Nina year. Nowhere in that article did they say all this translates to a typical La Nina year weather wise..... They even say Winter forecast to be released in October....

How accurate was their winter forecast last fall ??

[SoCoWx]

I can't remember who said it...but before Eastern was shut down I remember there being a Met over there and he was pretty accurate most of the time. I remember when we were discussing the Winter of 10/11 and what it would be like he mentioned some sort of correlation to summer precipitation and where the storm tracks are or the cold..something like that...so anyway, I thought about it and then saw this...

Like I said...I can't remember exactly how the heaviest summer precipitation and where it sets up was good...I just remember it was supposed to be a good indicator.

[tarheelwx]

How accurate was their winter forecast last fall ??

Really it was quite poor. As for this winter, just pull up last October's forecast for the 10/11 winter and you'll get a sneak preview of the October release of thier 11/12 winter forecast.

TW

[FallsLake]

We need to be focused on the NAO. This really affects the winter weather patterns in the SE. The NAO has been negative for a good portion of this summer (in winter this would have been great). It is now running slightly positive. I have read (I think on this site) that it may stay more positive until around December. That would be great for a lot of us; possible providing more pre-xmas winter storms.

[Cold Rain]

Did someone say Christmas winter storm?? Now that's what I'm talking about!

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Latest CFS forecast is showing the possibility of another strong La Nina. Weather porn for you guys. Hope to see something like this this winter.

[BullCityWx]

Last year was a one in a thousand shot for this region.

[jrips27]

Did someone say Christmas winter storm?? Now that's what I'm talking about!

Can you work your magic again?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I can't remember who said it...but before Eastern was shut down I remember there being a Met over there and he was pretty accurate most of the time. I remember when we were discussing the Winter of 10/11 and what it would be like he mentioned some sort of correlation to summer precipitation and where the storm tracks are or the cold..something like that...so anyway, I thought about it and then saw this...

Like I said...I can't remember exactly how the heaviest summer precipitation and where it sets up was good...I just remember it was supposed to be a good indicator.

You are referring to DT........ He believed that soil moisture would influence the winter storm track. The following winter did not play out like he had forecasted. Instead of the storm track setting up in the midwest, where the highest soil moisture was, it set up across the south and we watched the mid-atlantic have the winter of the century. So, I wouldn't put much stock in soil moisture at this point.

[SoCoWx]

You are referring to DT........ He believed that soil moisture would influence the winter storm track. The following winter did not play out like he had forecasted. Instead of the storm track setting up in the midwest, where the highest soil moisture was, it set up across the south and we watched the mid-atlantic have the winter of the century. So, I wouldn't put much stock in soil moisture at this point.

Oh, okay. Thanks for clearing that up. Despite this, I do know that high SMC (Soil Moisture Content) often results in colder anomalies in the Winter months. Heard that somewhere too.

[LithiaWx]

I'm just going to come out and say it, we in the southeast are looking down the barrel of a dry and seasonably warm winter this year. I doubt a strong La Nina plays out the same way it did last year.....I also doubt we get a third good winter in a row, this is the southeast and we are spoiled from the last two winters.... We had very low solar activity for a couple years before last winter and one of the most epic -NAO's last season. Solar activity is back up and a repeat of last years blocking would be quite the feat....

I know this statement is not going to win me any praise but it is what it is as they say.

[dsaur]

I'm wild guessing weak Nina (as of now), which actually has been the 2nd coldest ENSO stage for E US winters since 1894-5 (behind my favorite weak Nino). The biggest key will be getting a

-NAO, whose chances actually looks promising based on the -NAO summer.

Give me some more top quality blocking, Larry, and I'm happy with whatever kind of weak kid it is Just as long as the kid brings sleets, lol. T

[buckeyefan1]

Give me some more top quality blocking, Larry, and I'm happy with whatever kind of weak kid it is Just as long as the kid brings sleets, lol. T

This....

[LithiaWx]

On a more positive note, I just saw this in another subforum on this board. The first shot of fall air dropping in soon!!

Look at the 0c 850 line...

[burgertime]

[SoCoWx]

I'm just going to come out and say it, we in the southeast are looking down the barrel of a dry and seasonably warm winter this year. I doubt a strong La Nina plays out the same way it did last year.....I also doubt we get a third good winter in a row, this is the southeast and we are spoiled from the last two winters.... We had very low solar activity for a couple years before last winter and one of the most epic -NAO's last season. Solar activity is back up and a repeat of last years blocking would be quite the feat....

I know this statement is not going to win me any praise but it is what it is as they say.

But you fail to understand something...

The same teleconnections that lead to last year are falling into place again. We have the -NAO pattern, the -EPO is becoming established again, and the QBO is going negative.

Also, your assumption about solar activity is a little misguided. Yeah, there was an uptick. But we are STILL waaaaay below where it should be. We've got a pretty deep whole to dig ourselves out of in that respect. All it takes (as HM stated) is for the AP index to drop right before Winter starts and bam...you have another healthy greenland block.

Of course, I'm in VA..so I stand a better chance at cold and snow than most in this subforum. But this is just my two cents.

[FallsLake]

I'm just going to come out and say it, we in the southeast are looking down the barrel of a dry and seasonably warm winter this year. I doubt a strong La Nina plays out the same way it did last year.....I also doubt we get a third good winter in a row, this is the southeast and we are spoiled from the last two winters.... We had very low solar activity for a couple years before last winter and one of the most epic -NAO's last season. Solar activity is back up and a repeat of last years blocking would be quite the feat....

I know this statement is not going to win me any praise but it is what it is as they say.

I agree with you; but dealing with weather, we should never say we're due for something. Just beacasue we had two good winters doesn't stop us from having a third one (flip a coin two times heads the third time still has a 50% change of heads). But (why I agree) with the La Nina being forcasted to be so low (by models); the science does point to warmer and dryer weather, on average. But (again) that's the average. La Nina also allows a lot of cold air to build and affect the northern states. This cold will (from time to time) invade the SE. This could come as very dry cold fronts, as damming situations, or it could work with a favorable storm track (during -NAO). So in short, even if we "average" warm and dry it could still be a very intersting winter (from time to time).

[LithiaWx]

But you fail to understand something...

The same teleconnections that lead to last year are falling into place again. We have the -NAO pattern, the -EPO is becoming established again, and the QBO is going negative.

Also, your assumption about solar activity is a little misguided. Yeah, there was an uptick. But we are STILL waaaaay below where it should be. We've got a pretty deep whole to dig ourselves out of in that respect. All it takes (as HM stated) is for the AP index to drop right before Winter starts and bam...you have another healthy greenland block.

Of course, I'm in VA..so I stand a better chance at cold and snow than most in this subforum. But this is just my two cents.

Last years -NAO was exceptional, it was NOT a normal -NAO. It was very negative for a very long time, and it kept building back in. The idea that even with a -NAO that we will have that much blocking again is a hard pill to swallow. As for Solar activity it is MUCH higher the past year than it was the year before last winter, regardless of if it is where it should be, it's still much higher. We can have a -NAO again and have it not translate to the type of winter we had last year, easily. If it is not as strong which I think is likely then we will not have as much cold. I do think this winter will have cold periods due to -NAO but I don't think the blocking will hold on like it did last year. More of a transitional pattern this year would make sense if we do indeed end up with with periods of -NAO. But the same blocking as last year, I really don't see it.

Look back at La nina years with a -NAO and you should find that often times the -NAO is not enough to overcome the typical La Nina pattern for the southeast. Last year was a fluke and I don't see the southeast repeating the epic winter of last year given that La Nina is once again back...

[LithiaWx]

Last year was a one in a thousand shot for this region.

And this.....

[calculus1]

I agree with you; but dealing with weather, we should never say we're due for something. Just beacasue we had two good winters doesn't stop us from having a third one (flip a coin two times heads the third time still has a 50% change of heads). But (why I agree) with the La Nina being forcasted to be so low (by models); the science does point to warmer and dryer weather, on average. But (again) that's the average. La Nina also allows a lot of cold air to build and affect the northern states. This cold will (from time to time) invade the SE. This could come as very dry cold fronts, as damming situations, or it could work with a favorable storm track (during -NAO). So in short, even if we "average" warm and dry it could still be a very intersting winter (from time to time).

I love the math analogy, even though I'm not sure it quite applies here. If you uncharacteristically got 20 heads in a row, you would still have a 50% chance of getting heads on the 21st toss. (Now, you might also begin to think that you might be using a weighted coin, but that's beside the point.) The law of large numbers states that the relative frequency of occurrence of an event is predictable over a great many trials; however, it makes no claim concerning any next single individual trial. In other words, you are not more likely to get heads on the 21st toss (just because you got heads on the first 20 tosses) than you were to get heads on the first toss.

In our case, a particular winter season is our trial. The thing about the weather, though, is that we don't have a 50% chance of getting a "good" winter and a 50% chance of a "bad" winter (however you would like to define good and bad). There's a whole lot of in-between scenarios, and there's a lot more involved than just a simple coin flip. However, I do agree with your larger premise that just because the past two winters have been fairly "good" (as judged by snow aficionados) for those of us in the SE, does not automatically imply that we must have a "bad" winter this time around.

I'm excited about what the winter could hold, as I always am at this time of the year (even though we're really just entering fall!). We start with our blank slate of no snow at all and build on it (hopefully) throughout the winter. I like to use a total of 10 inches of snowfall as my measuring stick for a "good" winter, but that's obviously very much location/elevation/perspective dependent for each individual. Anyway, "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..."

[LithiaWx]

I agree with you; but dealing with weather, we should never say we're due for something. Just beacasue we had two good winters doesn't stop us from having a third one (flip a coin two times heads the third time still has a 50% change of heads). But (why I agree) with the La Nina being forcasted to be so low (by models); the science does point to warmer and dryer weather, on average. But (again) that's the average. La Nina also allows a lot of cold air to build and affect the northern states. This cold will (from time to time) invade the SE. This could come as very dry cold fronts, as damming situations, or it could work with a favorable storm track (during -NAO). So in short, even if we "average" warm and dry it could still be a very intersting winter (from time to time).

I love the math analogy, even though I'm not sure it quite applies here. If you uncharacteristically got 20 heads in a row, you would still have a 50% chance of getting heads on the 21st toss. (Now, you might also begin to think that you might be using a weighted coin, but that's beside the point.) The law of large numbers states that the relative frequency of occurrence of an event is predictable over a great many trials; however, it makes no claim concerning any next single individual trial. In other words, you are not more likely to get heads on the 21st toss (just because you got heads on the first 20 tosses) than you were to get heads on the first toss.

In our case, a particular winter season is our trial. The thing about the weather, though, is that we don't have a 50% chance of getting a "good" winter and a 50% chance of a "bad" winter (however you would like to define good and bad). There's a whole lot of in-between scenarios, and there's a lot more involved than just a simple coin flip. However, I do agree with your larger premise that just because the past two winters have been fairly "good" (as judged by snow aficionados) for those of us in the SE, does not automatically imply that we must have a "bad" winter this time around.

I'm excited about what the winter could hold, as I always am at this time of the year (even though we're really just entering fall!). We start with our blank slate of no snow at all and build on it (hopefully) throughout the winter. I like to use a total of 10 inches of snowfall as my measuring stick for a "good" winter, but that's obviously very much location/elevation/perspective dependent for each individual. Anyway, "Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow..."

I never said we were due for a normal Southeast winter. I said another snowy winter is unlikely because frankly it is when you look at the fact we are going to be in a strong La Nina this year. I was not saying we were overdue for a normal winter. Repeating last years strange winter of being cold and snowy in a La Nina year is my reason to think that we go back to a more normal winter, not the fact that a third year would be hard to pull off, even though it would be.... If we were headed into a El Nino year this winter with all the other factors playing in I could easily see a third year in a row of a great winter. But that is not the case at all. Climo does need to be factored in, if that is saying we are due for a normal winter then so be it...

[SoCoWx]

I never said we were due for a normal Southeast winter. I said another snowy winter is unlikely because frankly it is when you look at the fact we are going to be in a strong La Nina this year. I was not saying we were overdue for a normal winter. Repeating last years strange winter of being cold and snowy in a La Nina year is my reason to think that we go back to a more normal winter, not the fact that a third year would be hard to pull off, even though it would be.... If we were headed into a El Nino year this winter with all the other factors playing in I could easily see a third year in a row of a great winter. But that is not the case at all. Climo does need to be factored in, if that is saying we are due for a normal winter then so be it...

The consensus is a high-end weak to low-end moderate. Moderate being most likely. Just because the CFS predicts a strong La Nina again does not make it Weather Law. The CFS has a severely poor accuracy rate, as I stated.

But regardless, just because you all are warm and dry doesn't mean I'll be so why am I wasting my breath? Have a nice day!

[LithiaWx]

The consensus is a high-end weak to low-end moderate. Moderate being most likely. Just because the CFS predicts a strong La Nina again does not make it Weather Law. The CFS has a severely poor accuracy rate, as I stated.

But regardless, just because you all are warm and dry doesn't mean I'll be so why am I wasting my breath? Have a nice day!

You are entitled to your opinion and I'm entitled to mine. I'm sorry you feel like you are wasting your breath. La nina will be stronger than neutral which is what many thought we would end up with earlier this summer. La nina is trending stronger in the models not weaker..