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Winter 2011-2012


triadwx

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Most everyone blew the predictions last year, why should we expect them to be suddenly correct. I would love a cold winter again but three in a row is asking for a lot. With all the colder than normal forecasts I'd laugh my butt off at a warm dry SE winter. Although I'd be very sad.... Nutty as a fruitcake :wacko:

No model mayhem???:jerry: We thrive on it....What shall we do???

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Dr. Jeff Master's wrote about this on his blog.

Dr. Master's blog

I came across another preliminary forecast made by Cirrus Weather. They are third forecast that I have found so far that shows well below average temperatures across majority of the Eastern US with above average precip/snow. I have no idea how reliable this source is though.

If they dont understand basic la nina climatology(what I expect to develop), I cant take the forecast seriously.

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  • 2 weeks later...

As I stated in the other threads, I strongly feel Henry's misconcieved idea that there will be a general lack of a greenland block and therefore a general lack of cold air in the country will fail miserably. It is just a prelim though so we will see. But I have serious doubts about it verifying based on ENSO and where the teleconnections seem to be heading.

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Farmers Almanac has a big storm moving from the Southwest CONUS through the plains, over the Ohio Valley and into New England sometime between December 8-11. Probably not going to turn out that way, 4 months away, but interesting to speculate nonetheless.

A path like that would put most of the SE in the warm sector (rain). The great Lakes would love it.

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Haha, that's CPC....what a joke.

It's not really a joke. They're just doing their typical "play it safe" game and going with atypical Nina climo. Whenever there is La Nina there DJF maps usually come out that way. And for all anyone knows we may see the textbook La Nina setup. I'm a little doubtful of that, but we'll see.

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It's not really a joke. They're just doing their typical "play it safe" game and going with atypical Nina climo. Whenever there is La Nina there DJF maps usually come out that way. And for all anyone knows we may see the textbook La Nina setup. I'm a little doubtful of that, but we'll see.

Basically what I was going to say in response to Widre, but he's a cancer if you mess with him.

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was suppose to be warmer last year with no snow too. Oh thats right you never get any your way. I hate that. Your negativity is quite funny anymore

Here we have it: a rare, but likely to become increasingly common, example of "anymore" used without its antecedent negative. Maybe you just forgot it (a typo, in a sense), but maybe you don't feel like the "not" is necessary.

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Here we have it: a rare, but likely to become increasingly common, example of "anymore" used without its antecedent negative. Maybe you just forgot it (a typo, in a sense), but maybe you don't feel like the "not" is necessary.

It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS!

But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again.:thumbsup:

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It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS!

But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again.:thumbsup:

I wasn't jabbing this time...

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It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS!

But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again.:thumbsup:

I think we all would! How did you fare in the January storm? A foot? Gosh, wouldn't we all love another one of those!

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I think we all would! How did you fare in the January storm? A foot? Gosh, wouldn't we all love another one of those!

The Christmas storm was the best for us here in SE Va (which is sometimes considered the SE). We saw our first white christmas since the 40's and the final snow totals ranged from 18" around Murfreesboro, NC where my Aunt lives to 15" up here in Courtland, VA. Biggest snowstorm I've ever seen. Granted, I'm young. haha.

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Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet.

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Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet.

You are saying that, realizing that the weeklies already have Region 3.4 down to -0.7C and all regions are cooling pretty quickly... and there is an expanding and cooling anomaly area under the surface of the equatorial Pacific.... that's already as cold as -5.0C or below? If so, okay cool...

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Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet.

It'll be Fall in 4 days! :) Meteorological Fall anyways.

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You are saying that, realizing that the weeklies already have Region 3.4 down to -0.7C and all regions are cooling pretty quickly... and there is an expanding and cooling anomaly area under the surface of the equatorial Pacific.... that's already as cold as -5.0C or below? If so, okay cool...

The subsurface data is never a good predictor for ENSO outside of short term trends. At this point I have no clue and neither does anyone what the DJF average will be. The ENSO models are all pretty set on a neutral DJF. Average of the stat' and dyn' models is -.2. That said, this argument is the reason why I wait till late Oct' to attempt an outlook. By that point it's much more clear.

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