Psalm 148:8 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Most everyone blew the predictions last year, why should we expect them to be suddenly correct. I would love a cold winter again but three in a row is asking for a lot. With all the colder than normal forecasts I'd laugh my butt off at a warm dry SE winter. Although I'd be very sad.... Nutty as a fruitcake No model mayhem??? We thrive on it....What shall we do??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Dr. Jeff Master's wrote about this on his blog. Dr. Master's blog I came across another preliminary forecast made by Cirrus Weather. They are third forecast that I have found so far that shows well below average temperatures across majority of the Eastern US with above average precip/snow. I have no idea how reliable this source is though. If they dont understand basic la nina climatology(what I expect to develop), I cant take the forecast seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Bring it on! Ready for the first upslope snow in late October or early November. This should wet everyone's appetite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/53551/snow-forecast-for-the-winter-of-20112012.asp Im sure a lot of us have already seen it? Seems like a lot of bs to me, but.. Of course the Accuweather home base is in the above normal range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 http://www.accuweath...of-20112012.asp Im sure a lot of us have already seen it? Seems like a lot of bs to me, but.. Of course the Accuweather home base is in the above normal range.. I haven't seen blocky graphics like that since the Pong days , circa 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 I haven't seen blocky graphics like that since the Pong days , circa 1978. Agreed. Anyway, when are you going to start throwing your ideas into the winter bucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Agreed. Anyway, when are you going to start throwing your ideas into the winter bucket? October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 As I stated in the other threads, I strongly feel Henry's misconcieved idea that there will be a general lack of a greenland block and therefore a general lack of cold air in the country will fail miserably. It is just a prelim though so we will see. But I have serious doubts about it verifying based on ENSO and where the teleconnections seem to be heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Farmers Almanac has a big storm moving from the Southwest CONUS through the plains, over the Ohio Valley and into New England sometime between December 8-11. Probably not going to turn out that way, 4 months away, but interesting to speculate nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Farmers Almanac has a big storm moving from the Southwest CONUS through the plains, over the Ohio Valley and into New England sometime between December 8-11. Probably not going to turn out that way, 4 months away, but interesting to speculate nonetheless. A path like that would put most of the SE in the warm sector (rain). The great Lakes would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 A path like that would put most of the SE in the warm sector (rain). The great Lakes would love it. Yep. Reminds me much of the Blizzard they had this year that dropped big time amounts of snow over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like some changes in the thinking by CPC for winter... http://www.cpc.ncep....dictions/90day/ Looks a bit warmer for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like some changes in the thinking by CPC for winter... http://www.cpc.ncep....dictions/90day/ Looks a bit warmer for the SE. Haha, that's CPC....what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Haha, that's CPC....what a joke. Because they are predicting warm? You...what a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Haha, that's CPC....what a joke. It's not really a joke. They're just doing their typical "play it safe" game and going with atypical Nina climo. Whenever there is La Nina there DJF maps usually come out that way. And for all anyone knows we may see the textbook La Nina setup. I'm a little doubtful of that, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's not really a joke. They're just doing their typical "play it safe" game and going with atypical Nina climo. Whenever there is La Nina there DJF maps usually come out that way. And for all anyone knows we may see the textbook La Nina setup. I'm a little doubtful of that, but we'll see. Basically what I was going to say in response to Widre, but he's a cancer if you mess with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Because they are predicting warm? You...what a joke. was suppose to be warmer last year with no snow too. Oh thats right you never get any your way. I hate that. Your negativity is quite funny anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 was suppose to be warmer last year with no snow too. Oh thats right you never get any your way. I hate that. Your negativity is quite funny anymore Here we have it: a rare, but likely to become increasingly common, example of "anymore" used without its antecedent negative. Maybe you just forgot it (a typo, in a sense), but maybe you don't feel like the "not" is necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here we have it: a rare, but likely to become increasingly common, example of "anymore" used without its antecedent negative. Maybe you just forgot it (a typo, in a sense), but maybe you don't feel like the "not" is necessary. It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS! But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS! But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again. I wasn't jabbing this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's the point of the post from PStroke that all of the normal people read into and agree to. But you always find a way to get a jab in whether it's relevant or not. Lots of LAUGHS! But on the winter note I'll take another "warm and below average moisture" again. I think we all would! How did you fare in the January storm? A foot? Gosh, wouldn't we all love another one of those! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think we all would! How did you fare in the January storm? A foot? Gosh, wouldn't we all love another one of those! The Christmas storm was the best for us here in SE Va (which is sometimes considered the SE). We saw our first white christmas since the 40's and the final snow totals ranged from 18" around Murfreesboro, NC where my Aunt lives to 15" up here in Courtland, VA. Biggest snowstorm I've ever seen. Granted, I'm young. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I wasn't jabbing this time... Better be careful. Do you know what happens when you jab at a badger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fall Outlook is now out my blog, check it out. http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-outlook-for-north-america.html Any questions, ask me here or on my blog. Winter outlook will be released sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet. You are saying that, realizing that the weeklies already have Region 3.4 down to -0.7C and all regions are cooling pretty quickly... and there is an expanding and cooling anomaly area under the surface of the equatorial Pacific.... that's already as cold as -5.0C or below? If so, okay cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Starting to look like ENSO neutral is a decent bet. Haven't even started looking into possible analogs. Usually don't till late September once the ENSO signal is more clear. I am already starting to get the fever though and it's not even Fall yet. It'll be Fall in 4 days! Meteorological Fall anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 After seeing what we got with a La Nina I am not concerned. I believe we are going to see snow for the next several years as I believe the pattern is changing more in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 You are saying that, realizing that the weeklies already have Region 3.4 down to -0.7C and all regions are cooling pretty quickly... and there is an expanding and cooling anomaly area under the surface of the equatorial Pacific.... that's already as cold as -5.0C or below? If so, okay cool... The subsurface data is never a good predictor for ENSO outside of short term trends. At this point I have no clue and neither does anyone what the DJF average will be. The ENSO models are all pretty set on a neutral DJF. Average of the stat' and dyn' models is -.2. That said, this argument is the reason why I wait till late Oct' to attempt an outlook. By that point it's much more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 After seeing what we got with a La Nina I am not concerned. I believe we are going to see snow for the next several years as I believe the pattern is changing more in our favor I agree. I think we're finally moving into a more favorable winter regime for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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