snowman22 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well, -NAO/-AO looks to be our best friend (with every winter) once again. But, i wonder about the cold core lows and is it possible that could happen this year (i know it sounds stupid) maybe i'll do some more research on that March 1 2009 snowstorm across ALA, GA, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Well, -NAO/-AO looks to be our best friend (with every winter) once again. But, i wonder about the cold core lows and is it possible that could happen this year (i know it sounds stupid) maybe i'll do some more research on that March 1 2009 snowstorm across ALA, GA, TN. How on earth can you say conclusively that the NAO and AO will be negative? This is not a wishcasting forum like AccuWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 How on earth can you say conclusively that the NAO and AO will be negative? This is not a wishcasting forum like AccuWx. No one is saying it WILL be negative. The one of us that are bringing it up acknowledge that the QBO is descending towards negative, it appears we are going into a -QBO for the Fall and Winter. That along with some of the other teleconnectors increase the chances of seeing another -NAO Winter. It's not like we know absolutely nothing about how the NAO works. I think the meteorological worlds knows a bit more about it than their given credit for in here. They don't know everything about it. But they do at least know some things about it and have a general idea of how it affects the pattern and what other things can favor a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 How on earth can you say conclusively that the NAO and AO will be negative? This is not a wishcasting forum like AccuWx. Lol Wishcasting. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 The odds are more in our favor, for a -NAO 31 of the last 37 months have seen a -NAO. And there's usually 195 day lag between -NAO Periods which would mean by mid winter there's a good chance we'll have -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 How on earth can you say conclusively that the NAO and AO will be negative? This is not a wishcasting forum like AccuWx. I didnt mean it like that I'm just saying...every winter we love to see a -AO/-NAO. Its a thought and this is sort of a wishcasting forum. Its 130 or so days till winter. Cant a brother just make one kindergarden without getting criticized. Oh and i hate INAccuWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Summer Arctic ice is on the retreat more than normal this year. This has been correlated with -NAO/AO. I'll pass on the climo debate and cause/effect, except perhaps high latitude ridging might promote both greater ice melt and -AO. Regardless of causes ice melt and the AO are correlated. Odds favor the -NAO/AO based on this and other issues mentioned above. I'm cold mid-South. Jury out Deep South, depending on strength of blocking. While we don't wish cast, in my business we are paid to add economic value. If I can give odds other than climo I am adding economic value for my Company. Oh, another reason this is not a wish cast from me: I dislike cold and miss the Texas Coast in winter. OK, I'll admit I like a good snowstorm. Otherwise I like it warm. So, my forecast and wishcast are opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 How on earth can you say conclusively that the NAO and AO will be negative? This is not a wishcasting forum like AccuWx. Not saying that I agree with the poster, but sometimes, even us "more seasoned" folks mix in a little wishcasting here and there. Now, I don't think a -NAO/-AO is written in stone by any means, but I do see some signs that would lead us to believe that we are heading into a period dominated by some form of high lattitude blocking. You have the arctic sea ice lower than normal, solar output lower than normal, and the QBO (just to name a few). These would all normally point to a blocking pattern. Now, I won't jump on the band wagon until I see the above normal snow cover build up in Siberia. That seems to be the one thing that tips the scales....... and that won't be known until Oct. With all that being said, I would only put the chances of a -NAO winter at 60% right now but that can certainly change as we head toward Fall. One thing I am fairly sure of is that we won't see a strong Enso signal this winter. Odds are favoring neutral to weak Nina and I tend to support that. We still have plenty of time to watch the signals. As for now, I am most concerned with the arctic sea ice extent. There is quite a debate going on right now in the weather community concerning whether this will be a record low year or not. Bottom line is that it is still way to early to nail down the index that will dominate our upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Here is Weathercast 100's updated Winter forecast. Some of you may have seen his forecasts for last year which verified quite well IMO. He went against the whole SE Ridge/Blow torch winter many were expecting last year. You can go to his channel and view it. His updated winter forecast *Preliminary* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Here is Weathercast 100's updated Winter forecast. Some of you may have seen his forecasts for last year which verified quite well IMO. He went against the whole SE Ridge/Blow torch winter many were expecting last year. You can go to his channel and view it. His updated winter forecast *Preliminary* Hmmm....based on his explanation, or lack there of, for his upcoming winter forecast in the video, I'm going to say last year's call was smoke and mirrors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hmmm....based on his explanation, or lack there of, for his upcoming winter forecast in the video, I'm going to say last year's call was smoke and mirrors. Care to elaborate? Since it would seem that his forecast last year was pretty much spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hmmm....based on his explanation, or lack there of, for his upcoming winter forecast in the video, I'm going to say last year's call was smoke and mirrors. Seems like it's another AccuWx poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 An active subtropical jet this winter? During a La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hmmm....based on his explanation, or lack there of, for his upcoming winter forecast in the video, I'm going to say last year's call was smoke and mirrors. I agree 100% the only explanation he gave was NAO, QBO, PDO, solar activity... Even the most novice weather fan can tell you those will tend to bring colder than normal temps if they are set correctly. I'm not very impressed with this forecast, it seems very much loaded with hype. Pointing out that the deep south will be snowier than the last two was sort of ridiculous. The past two winters around here are about as snowy as they get for the south. Comparing this upcoming winter to the 60's and 70's was also more hype. I hope it comes true but his explanation does not allow me to buy into it. As you said he gave little in the way of explanation of why he thinks this will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 well i would love to see the cold and storm tracks with an active subtropical jet....but three back to back great se winters? in our dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 You know, it's about this point during the summer when I start dreaming of days in the fall where I can just put on a jacket compared to this beast of heat pattern in the TN Valley. Once winter starts, I get greedy and want snow. Any thoughts on whether fall will come early? I tend to think the heat hangs on................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 well i would love to see the cold and storm tracks with an active subtropical jet....but three back to back great se winters? in our dreams Good point, but we could dream that we're now back into the late 1800's climowise (due to sun activity even less active than that) when having three great winters in a row wasn't all that unusual. So, keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Good point, but we could dream that we're now back into the late 1800's climowise (due to sun activity even less active than that) when having three great winters in a row wasn't all that unusual. So, keep hope alive. 3 of Charlotte's top 10 snows came in the late 1800's (records kept since 1878) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Good point, but we could dream that we're now back into the late 1800's climowise (due to sun activity even less active than that) when having three great winters in a row wasn't all that unusual. So, keep hope alive. I'd love to see Katla erupt at a strong VEI 5 to 6 in the next month that would possibly give us some epic winters!! Just no deaths from the eruption please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted July 22, 2011 Author Share Posted July 22, 2011 You know, it's about this point during the summer when I start dreaming of days in the fall where I can just put on a jacket compared to this beast of heat pattern in the TN Valley. Once winter starts, I get greedy and want snow. Any thoughts on whether fall will come early? I tend to think the heat hangs on................................................. I've heard a lot of people say that they think there is going to be an Indian Summer towards the middle to the end of fall, and then winter comes with a vengeance. I haven't really seen any proof to prove this, but..i do as well think this heat is going to hang on for a while with very little variants from the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I've heard a lot of people say that they think there is going to be an Indian Summer towards the middle to the end of fall, and then winter comes with a vengeance. I haven't really seen any proof to prove this, but..i do as well think this heat is going to hang on for a while with very little variants from the heat. An Indian Summer is classified as temperatures in excess of 80 degrees after the first frost has arrived. So I tend to disagree. I think Autumn will be near normal and perhaps a little stormier than Summer has been. Then Winter I feel will be BN for a good 3/4th's of the nation.Now I could see an Indian Summer happening in October. But after that it seems quite unlikely to me. In other words, I dont think we have a Summer 2010 repeat going on here just because its hot as hades right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Has anybody heard about a correlation between less polar sea ice and high latitude blocking. It seems I have read "here and there" (which I know is dangerous) that less sea ice promotes more blocking; which would correlate to colder winters for western Europe and eastern N. America. If this is true it would be very ironic for us folks wanting colder winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Has anybody heard about a correlation between less polar sea ice and high latitude blocking. It seems I have read "here and there" (which I know is dangerous) that less sea ice promotes more blocking; which would correlate to colder winters for western Europe and eastern N. America. If this is true it would be very ironic for us folks wanting colder winters. There is some chatter about the correlation in the energy community, but nobody wants to touch causation with a 10-foot pole (climo debate). This year we are chewing up the arctic ice good, so maybe another bout of blocking will follow this winter. Correlation is not nearly as sensitive a topic as causation. Regardless of the chicken or the egg debate, correlation gives a cold signal for the East this winter. Signals are just guidance but I've already been asked to make a call. For this and other reasons I'm cold in the mid-South, but not heavily focused on the Deep South since I live in the Tenn Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Is it common for a second year la nina, in a weak stage to often feature less activeness and also a strong SE ridge presence? I can easily see winter coming in with a bang but also having it's legs kicked out beneath often. I know it's early, but might this winter mimmick more of a 1930's based on the heat ridge in the south, the overall haet in the eastern us and the drought conditions over the southern plains? Also could the drought area play a role as to how many stroms become GLC's? This winter doesn';t seem so set in stone as the last 4 or 5....be a neat learning opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Is it common for a second year la nina, in a weak stage to often feature less activeness and also a strong SE ridge presence? I can easily see winter coming in with a bang but also having it's legs kicked out beneath often. I know it's early, but might this winter mimmick more of a 1930's based on the heat ridge in the south, the overall haet in the eastern us and the drought conditions over the southern plains? Also could the drought area play a role as to how many stroms become GLC's? This winter doesn';t seem so set in stone as the last 4 or 5....be a neat learning opportunity. A weaker Nina, especially if it is east-based or basin-wide results in a very weak SE Ridge that is easily squashed or moved around. Couple that with a -NAO/-AO combo plus a -QBO and things get interesting. The 1930's were the days of the Dust Bowl and temps soaring so high that heat indexes neared 130 and such. The current situation isn't like that. Also, last Winter was faaar from set in stone..considering we had a Strong La Nina and weren't sure of what the oscillations would do...it should have been a torch and very dry but it wasn't. I think the confidence of a colder winter is higher this go around for those that have already released prelim. outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 All I know is that three good winters in a row just doesn't happen (admittedly, last winter was only good if you liked being penny and nickled). Until the cold patterns are in place, I'm gonna go with climo and law of averages and say that we'll end up with a warm, dry winter this year. That's what we should have gotten last year, and it actually was dry, just not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Has anybody heard about a correlation between less polar sea ice and high latitude blocking. It seems I have read "here and there" (which I know is dangerous) that less sea ice promotes more blocking; which would correlate to colder winters for western Europe and eastern N. America. If this is true it would be very ironic for us folks wanting colder winters. Dr. Jeff Master's wrote about this on his blog. A highly extreme negative phase of the NAO and AO returned again during November 2010, and lasted into January 2011. Exceptionally cold and snowy conditions hit much of Western Europe and the Eastern U.S. again in the winter of 2010 - 2011. During these two extreme winters, New York City recorded three of its top-ten snowstorms since 1869, and Philadelphia recorded four of its top-ten snowstorms since 1884. During December 2010, the extreme Arctic circulation over Greenland created the strongest ridge of high pressure ever recorded at middle levels of the atmosphere, anywhere on the globe (since accurate records began in 1948.) New research suggests that major losses of Arctic sea ice could cause the Arctic circulation to behave so strangely, but this work is still speculative. Dr. Master's blog I came across another preliminary forecast made by Cirrus Weather. They are third forecast that I have found so far that shows well below average temperatures across majority of the Eastern US with above average precip/snow. I have no idea how reliable this source is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 All I know is that three good winters in a row just doesn't happen (admittedly, last winter was only good if you liked being penny and nickled). Until the cold patterns are in place, I'm gonna go with climo and law of averages and say that we'll end up with a warm, dry winter this year. That's what we should have gotten last year, and it actually was dry, just not warm. Most everyone blew the predictions last year, why should we expect them to be suddenly correct. I would love a cold winter again but three in a row is asking for a lot. With all the colder than normal forecasts I'd laugh my butt off at a warm dry SE winter. Although I'd be very sad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 what if sea ice completely melts in the summer on a regular basis in the future? the thoughts of a Polar shift south may not be so outlandish after all?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 All I know is that three good winters in a row just doesn't happen (admittedly, last winter was only good if you liked being penny and nickled). Until the cold patterns are in place, I'm gonna go with climo and law of averages and say that we'll end up with a warm, dry winter this year. That's what we should have gotten last year, and it actually was dry, just not warm. That's understandable. But hey, what do I know...in the meteorology world, I don't technically live in the SE anyway. But considering the growing consensus is for a colder winter, and thats what I see as well, I'll stick to my guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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