burkecountync Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 My thoughts on the winter... http://northcarolinafoothillsweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/winter-forecast-2011-2012.html Not near as much information as the other meteorologist who post on this forum, but I will be there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 FWIW, here's the 31 day progression of the snowcover in Siberia. 31 day loop: http://www.natice.no...a-1mo-loop.html Very nice coverage and actually finished above last year in both snow AND ice. 2010: 2011: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Don't know where to put this so I'll just stick it here. From JB's twitter: Mid tropospheric temps continue dizzying decline.14k and 25k daily records.. again. 25k within .05 of all time record. That is NOT argument for cooling, but the mid level temps along with Pacific ocean are hints as to what is truly starting to occur! You can make the graphs here. I wonder what kind of implications these cooler tropospheric temps with have, maybe not in the short-term, but over the next few years. Anyone got any thoughts/theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 the wool has spoken Yes, but is it the Euro wooly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Figured I post it here. Brad had released his winter forecast about a couple of days ago. There are 2 to view. The first one is pretty funny to watch and the second is to the actual forecast. It looks pretty good and is quite similar to what I had in my forecast for us in NC; Slightly below average temperatures with slightly above average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The upcoming pattern is very disconcerting. It's also very typical La Nina. Last year, the NAO seemed to be able to keep the La Nina at bay, but it appears that we may not be so lucky this year. I wouldn't rule out a period or two where it gets wintry, but I think it's going to be hard for us to sustain any real winter weather here. That much is becoming clear. Snow cover was also unimpressive for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The upcoming pattern is very disconcerting. It's also very typical La Nina. Last year, the NAO seemed to be able to keep the La Nina at bay, but it appears that we may not be so lucky this year. I wouldn't rule out a period or two where it gets wintry, but I think it's going to be hard for us to sustain any real winter weather here. That much is becoming clear. Snow cover was also unimpressive for October. Pretty sure all it takes is one or two winter storms to put us above average. And doesn't the bolded sentence sort of contradict itself?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 The upcoming pattern is very disconcerting. It's also very typical La Nina. Last year, the NAO seemed to be able to keep the La Nina at bay, but it appears that we may not be so lucky this year. I wouldn't rule out a period or two where it gets wintry, but I think it's going to be hard for us to sustain any real winter weather here. That much is becoming clear. Snow cover was also unimpressive for October. Snowfall on this side of the globe doesn't matter when it comes to the correlation. And also, last year November experienced the same two-week torch. The pattern changed right after Thanksgiving. There's really no reason to cancel Winter based on two weeks of mild weather coming. Plus as others have stated, in the south it only takes one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 FWIW, here's the 31 day progression of the snowcover in Siberia. 31 day loop: http://www.natice.no...a-1mo-loop.html Very nice coverage and actually finished above last year in both snow AND ice. The upcoming pattern is very disconcerting. It's also very typical La Nina. Last year, the NAO seemed to be able to keep the La Nina at bay, but it appears that we may not be so lucky this year. I wouldn't rule out a period or two where it gets wintry, but I think it's going to be hard for us to sustain any real winter weather here. That much is becoming clear. Snow cover was also unimpressive for October. Can't you read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 NAO looks to be going negative by mid November. It has been basically neutral to positive for the last three months. Hopefully we will now stay negative (on average) for the next three months. Just in time for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I agree with widre in the sense that the current medium range models match neg PDO/la-nina pattern perfectly. It also goes against the grain of the November patterns in many popular analogs. There are some positives however. The models are pushing some strong blocking by mid-month and the la-nina IMO is peaking right now. That's why i think this winter improves with time, but December could very well be above normal. That said, it's still a month away and the blocking will change the pattern to at least average by November 20th or so. There's a good likelihood November averages below normal again for NAO averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 average snowfall in the the Piedmont is around 8.1 inches and I have never seen Snow around here in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I am looking for a November similar to last year.... could be wrong but my hunch is that we will have a mild week or two then right around Thanksgiving we see a similar patter to last year begin to take shape. The long range GFS and to an extent the Euro has been hinting at it for a while now. However I'm also slightly on the side with Widre merely because having 3-4 cold/snowy winters in a row is unimaginable around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 I agree with widre in the sense that the current medium range models match neg PDO/la-nina pattern perfectly. It also goes against the grain of the November patterns in many popular analogs. There are some positives however. The models are pushing some strong blocking by mid-month and the la-nina IMO is peaking right now. That's why i think this winter improves with time, but December could very well be above normal. That said, it's still a month away and the blocking will change the pattern to at least average by November 20th or so. There's a good likelihood November averages below normal again for NAO averages. Well, that may be. Honestly, I'd be okay with a +Dec if it let us get to a cold Jan and Feb. We do better snow-wise in those months anyways, and last winter was a disappointment in January and February. Still, all of the positive signals we've had so far are weak and the negative ones are a lot stronger. Most years have variability that can play in our favor. Heck, 01/02 had that two week stretch of "cold" conditions that led to us getting a foot of snow. I think I'll withhold any opinions about winter again until late November. If it's blowtorch season, then I may become pessimistic again. If it's variable, or coldish, I'll change my tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Seems many of the models that I've looked at this month (I freely admit that I've not looked as much over the last 36 hours due to 60 hr weeks at work) have lessened the duration and intensithy of the cold as we approached each event. Last year,(yes, it's way too early to make definitive statements) it seemed that the cold was stronger and longer as the time frames approached. That said, it really didn't get cold until December, and the duration was far more impressive than anyone would have dared predicted. This year the SE ridge seems to be poking its nose up just enough to create ridging that impredes the flow of cold air into the SE. What is interesting though, is the number of systems that are taking prime tracks up the coast in spite of this. It has snowed three times in the mountains this past October. That is truly impressive. The GFS seemed to own the pattern last year at mid-range. I wonder if that will happen again this year? Even if we get more typical Nina weather this winter, which I suspect that we might...I think the fact that SLPs are moving on prime tracks this early should signal that the winter will provide snow for someone. My concern, is can enough cold air get into place and hold so that we aren't having to thread the needle all winter long? To me the pattern seems like it might favor snow in the foothills, maybe a significant storm in the Piedmont, and maybe one truly good storm in NE TN, SW VA, and E KY. I am beginning to think that snow as far south as last year(and frequency) will be far less - but again one storm could meet many averages or exceed them. To me the pattern does seem to "want" to throw a blockbuster much like the Halloween storm. It may be that this winter is one w/ one-two weeks of above normal temps followed by a storm and 2-3 days below average. Many of you have already mentioned this, but the NAO takes a pretty good dip on today's ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I hope we can lock onto a -NAO and a +PNA. the +PNA was missing quite often last year. Actually the year before that was missing a +PNA too. WE have had an active Pacific jet the last couple years which allowed lots of s/w's to move out from the west into the SE. I just want the perfect setup to materialize this year. -NAO with a +PNA for an extended period. Really seems like we're due for this....I think I'll nut up if we get a +NAO and a -PNA...... I think i would never go to sleep. A lot of people would cry themselves to sleep. Most everyone blew the predictions last year, why should we expect them to be suddenly correct. I would love a cold winter again but three in a row is asking for a lot. With all the colder than normal forecasts I'd laugh my butt off at a warm dry SE winter. Although I'd be very sad.... I just went through the first 10 pages or so. There are quite a few gems in there and Winter has not even started yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Don't know where to put this so I'll just stick it here. From JB's <a href='http://twitter.com/#%21/BigJoeBastardi/status/131164542083411968/photo/1' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>twitter</a>:You can make the graphs <a href='http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>here</a>. I wonder what kind of implications these cooler tropospheric temps with have, maybe not in the short-term, but over the next few years. Anyone got any thoughts/theory? Here was the post Foothills don't know if you saw it. Just a theory I guess for all the cutoffs... Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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