POWERSTROKE Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 the most important thing is we're probably heading for some kind of blocking. The GFS and ECMWF have a weak close high for a period (or longer) between western southern Greenland and Baffin Island. Its still too early for the Southeast to get excited, but if we get that flow to show up in Dec and Jan, we'd be in business again. Any kind of splitting of the flow in Canada (whether western or eastern side) is usually good for the Southeast, atleast as far as just making it stormy, many times just cold rain, but we really need that for a Winter storm. I based most of my Winter outlook on that kind of flow again. I hope so, you can drive one of my trucks this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Gotta love that 00Z Euro for middle next week esp if it is a sign of winter to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If December is NOT cold, there are going to be a LOT of busted winter outlooks based on what I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 If December is NOT cold, there are going to be a LOT of busted winter outlooks based on what I've seen I agree. I am hoping November 15th-Jan15 we are fed, b/c after that it might be tough to come by. The good news is, even if after that averages out warm, it just takes one or two attempts for someone to hit jackpot. On a side note, thanks for those who helped me in picking out a weather station - http://www.scientificsales.com/Davis-6153-Wireless-Vantage-Pro2-Weather-Station-p/6153.htm Arriving TODAY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Killer!! Let us know what you think. I think I might be able to finally get a PWS.. That one is a little to high for me, but would love to hear your feedback! I agree. I am hoping November 15th-Jan15 we are fed, b/c after that it might be tough to come by. The good news is, even if after that averages out warm, it just takes one or two attempts for someone to hit jackpot. On a side note, thanks for those who helped me in picking out a weather station - http://www.scientifi...tion-p/6153.htm Arriving TODAY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 On a side note, thanks for those who helped me in picking out a weather station - http://www.scientifi...tion-p/6153.htm Arriving TODAY!!!! That's great! Did you purchase the datalogger too? You'll need that to connect to a pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I agree. I am hoping November 15th-Jan15 we are fed, b/c after that it might be tough to come by. The good news is, even if after that averages out warm, it just takes one or two attempts for someone to hit jackpot. On a side note, thanks for those who helped me in picking out a weather station - http://www.scientifi...tion-p/6153.htm Arriving TODAY!!!! I've got that same exact system. You will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Gotta love that 00Z Euro for middle next week esp if it is a sign of winter to come... Yeah really. There would have to be some serious shifting to satisfy many on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I've got that same exact system. You will love it. My Davis Vantage Pro died after 11 good years. My wife, bless her heart, just ordered me a VP2 for my birthday. Got to keep that woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 My Davis Vantage Pro died after 11 good years. My wife, bless her heart, just ordered me a VP2 for my birthday. Got to keep that woman. You're a lucky man! That's great yours lasted so long! It's tough to beat the Davis reliability! I finally replace the battery in my Vue ISS the other day, it had been in there for more than two years. I do have a supercap going bad so I'll have to get that fixed at some point. I did discover that the Vue ISS would run for 8 months on battery alone if it had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 My Davis Vantage Pro died after 11 good years. My wife, bless her heart, just ordered me a VP2 for my birthday. Got to keep that woman. Wow! I'm going on 4 years now with my current one. That's one of the best gifts a wife can give a weather weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 That's great! Did you purchase the datalogger too? You'll need that to connect to a pc. I didn't purchase the datalogger. I figured I'd leave a few things for my wife to get me down the road. If I start dropping hints now, I might get a few things for Christmas. haha The datalogger is one of the things I'd like to have. I am looking to add a LOT of things though, possibly even dropping the hammer on an HD web cam at some point. Problem is, you really can spend as much as you want on this stuff. It adds up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Killer!! Let us know what you think. I think I might be able to finally get a PWS.. That one is a little to high for me, but would love to hear your feedback! Will let you know, looking forward to getting it hooked up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I've got that same exact system. You will love it. Thanks, I really do think I am going to love it, just wish I could get it hooked up and installed before the coming rain and cold. Don't think it will happen though. Can anyone tell me if I need to separate the temperature sensor from the wind sensor?? I have heard temperature should be measured at 4.5 feet and wind at 33 feet. I am going to put the unit at a height of 33 feet, but I can separate the temperature sensor if need be. I purchased the FARS with the unit, so with this, I don't know if it will be necessary to separate. Can anyone give me an answer on this? Thanks in advance all and bring on WINTER 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks, I really do think I am going to love it, just wish I could get it hooked up and installed before the coming rain and cold. Don't think it will happen though. Can anyone tell me if I need to separate the temperature sensor from the wind sensor?? I have heard temperature should be measured at 4.5 feet and wind at 33 feet. I am going to put the unit at a height of 33 feet, but I can separate the temperature sensor if need be. I purchased the FARS with the unit, so with this, I don't know if it will be necessary to separate. Can anyone give me an answer on this? Thanks in advance all and bring on WINTER 2011-2012 If you mount the whole thing at 33ft, I don't think you would be happy with the temp results. Now the anemometer is detachable and comes with 100ft of cable if I remember correctly. The ideal solution would be to mount the whole thing at 4-5 ft and detach the anemometer either using the cable provided or buying a wireless anemometer transmitter kit. I went the route of the wireless anemometer transmitter kit but like you said that is more $$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 If you mount the whole thing at 33ft, I don't think you would be happy with the temp results. Now the anemometer is detachable and comes with 100ft of cable if I remember correctly. The ideal solution would be to mount the whole thing at 4-5 ft and detach the anemometer either using the cable provided or buying a wireless anemometer transmitter kit. I went the route of the wireless anemometer transmitter kit but like you said that is more $$. Ordered last night and shipped today. Up and running as is though, and ready for the rain and cooler temperatures. Thanks for the assistance, just wish I had read enough to know I needed the wireless anemometer kit from the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 WCNC meteorologist Brad Panovich (out of Charlotte, NC) released his winter forecast for the upcoming winter season today. He actually predicted a snowfall amount of 6.8 inches for the Charlotte metro area this winter. It's a good read and a nice video too. Check it out: http://wxbrad.com/?p=2081 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ...and so did News 14 meteorologist Matthew East. His forecast is for the majority of the Carolinas. Both of these guys (Brad and Matt) do a great job with the weather. I really respect their knowledge and the time they take to explain things. They also both seem to enjoy the snow like a lot of us on this site. Check it out: http://mattheweast.b...tlook-2011.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks for posting both Sir!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 ...and so did News 14 meteorologist Matthew East. His forecast is for the majority of the Carolinas. Both of these guys (Brad and Matt) do a great job with the weather. I really respect their knowledge and the time they take to explain things. They also both seem to enjoy the snow like a lot of us on this site. Check it out: http://mattheweast.b...tlook-2011.html Thanks for posting both as well. Brad is a great guy and I know for a fact that he IS truly a snow lover. Matthew does a great job as well. I have heard that he does enjoy the snow, just not sure as to what extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiya Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thanks for posting both as well. Brad is a great guy and I know for a fact that he IS truly a snow lover. Matthew does a great job as well. I have heard that he does enjoy the snow, just not sure as to what extent. I am a snow lover too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks for posting both Sir!! Thanks for posting both as well. Brad is a great guy and I know for a fact that he IS truly a snow lover. Matthew does a great job as well. I have heard that he does enjoy the snow, just not sure as to what extent. No problem. I know both post on here from time to time. I'm not trying to steal their thunder, but I wanted to make the forecasts available to the forum members as soon as I saw they were available. Bring on the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Here is Brad Panovich's winter forecast : http://www.wcnc.com/news/local/bBrad-Panovichs-Blogb--2011-21-winter-foreceast-132730433.html *Above avg snowfall/below average rain for Charlotte with below average temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks for posting the forecast in here! I can confirm that I am definitely a snow lover! Love everything about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thought I'd pass this along, since much of Southeast Virginia's winter weather is from systems that travel through our Southeast area first. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ CUSTOMERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS...NWS EMPLOYEES FROM: BILL SAMMLER WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...NWS WAKEFIELD SUBJECT: WINTER STORM CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA CHANGING ON DECEMBER 1 2011 BEGINNING THURSDAY DECEMBER 1 2011...THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL WILL CHANGE TO 3 INCHES IN 12 HOURS AND 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS...FOR 22 CITIES AND COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THIS CHANGE IS BEING MADE BASED UPON CUSTOMER FEEDBACK...THE SNOWFALL CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE AREA...AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. PREVIOUSLY THE CRITERIA WERE 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS AND 5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE ARE: ACCOMACK...GLOUCESTER...GREENSVILLE...ISLE OF WIGHT...JAMES CITY...MATHEWS...NORTHAMPTON...SOUTHAMPTON...SURRY...SUSSEX... AND YORK. THE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE ARE: CHESAPEAKE...EMPORIA...FRANKLIN...HAMPTON...NEWPORT NEWS... NORFOLK...POQUOSON...PORTSMOUTH...SUFFOLK...VIRGINIA BEACH... AND WILLIAMSBURG. TO REPEAT...ON DECEMBER 1 2011...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA WILL CHANGE THE WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT: BILL SAMMLER WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST OR JEFF ORROCK METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 10009 GENERAL MAHONE HWY. WAKEFIELD, VA 23888-2742 PHONE: 757-899-5732 OR 757-899-5730 E-MAIL: [email protected] OR [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 East is a snow homer Great read man, as always.. Thanks for posting the forecast in here! I can confirm that I am definitely a snow lover! Love everything about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks for posting the forecast in here! I can confirm that I am definitely a snow lover! Love everything about it! No problem. I enjoy watching your videos each morning on your blog, Matt. Thanks for all the hard work you put into them. It is appreciated. Your snow-loving does not go unnoticed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Official Wooly Worm Winter Outlook (for those that follow nature's sign for the upcoming winter): WEEK 1 Light Snow and Cold WEEK 2 Cold & Snowy WEEK 3 Cold & Snowy WEEK 4 Cold & Snowy WEEK 5 Light Snow & Cold WEEKS 6-11 Normal & Cold WEEK 12 Cold & Snowy WEEK 13 Cold & Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the wool has spoken Official Wooly Worm Winter Outlook (for those that follow nature's sign for the upcoming winter): WEEK 1 Light Snow and Cold WEEK 2 Cold & Snowy WEEK 3 Cold & Snowy WEEK 4 Cold & Snowy WEEK 5 Light Snow & Cold WEEKS 6-11 Normal & Cold WEEK 12 Cold & Snowy WEEK 13 Cold & Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Well looking at the MJO phases for my composite years it appears to me that a Novemeber snow in the Deep South isn't on the docket since we are heading into Nov. in phase 3. From the analog years if we started Nov. in phase 7,8 it gives us time to move through 7,8 and 1 and produce snow in the Deep South the second or third week of Nov. Instead, we are starting at 3 and the GEFS is forecasting a 3 to neutral then to 1, while the Euro is forecasting 3 to neutral, either way, it doesn't pan out well for North America. The good news is though from the analogs 75% of the analogs saw a storm produce snow down to Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana and down pass Dallas, TX. Some between Dec. 14-18 and 23-29. Plus 2008-2009 is really shaping up to be a great analog for this year and it snowed in the south around Dec. 22 that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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