Winter 2011-2012

[weathertree4u]

Note to others: This is an example of why Widre, despite his wintertime trolling, is a useful member. Engaging one another in discussion is what this is all about.

Sure, while engaging a few people in discussion, droves of people have left the forum. Why, because out of the posts of the last few pages, maybe three actually had to do with weather, the others were posts meant to derail someone under the disquise of a weather posting

[buckeyefan1]

Sure, while engaging a few people in discussion, droves of people have left the forum. Why, because out of the posts of the last few pages, maybe three actually had to do with weather, the others were posts meant to derail someone under the disquise of a weather posting

lol

AGAIN....take it here..... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25074-septemberoctober-general-banter/page__st__120

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Where's Lookout? I know he would not allow this type of activity.

[BullCityWx]

Sure, while engaging a few people in discussion, droves of people have left the forum. Why, because out of the posts of the last few pages, maybe three actually had to do with weather, the others were posts meant to derail someone under the disquise of a weather posting

Who has left??? I'm all for thinning the herd myself but I don't know of any mass exodus.

[WidreMann]

Nobody should get a pass for being a jerk, else why have any rules to begin with? I ran a pretty large forum for a couple years (and was the 'tech', and all of that) and I do know some things about running forums. But, it ate up too much of my time and after dealing with a few million posts on the forum (yes it was much larger than this one) I passed it along to someone else. When you have favoritism and 'seniority' (meaning someone can be a jerk just because they've been around a while), then you're going to drive away a lot of new members and eventually some other forum is going to take over. Notice how this forum took over from others? Well the exact same thing can happen again. I was a lurker for a few years before deciding to actually post, but behavior like this is going to drive me away from the forum.

But seeing as how I've been ganged up on because I tried to provide substance, and someone else acts like a goof-off and gets a pass because of his supposed seniority (forum 'techs' are a dime a dozen, I went through a few before handling things myself), and supposed weather knowledge (which he doesn't seem to back up around here), or someone else gets a pass simply because they're a woman (someone else) then you're only damaging yourself.

Of course, I should be the one to drop it because I'm speaking my mind, while others can freely speak theirs. I don't expect this forum to be fair (and my expectations have dropped recently), but there's no reason why I can't point out hypocrisy.

I'm not a tech. I don't even have the tech tag. What are you talking about.

[HKY_WX]

I'm not a tech. I don't even have the tech tag. What are you talking about.

i think i started that rumor.

[WidreMann]

i think i started that rumor.

I had a tech tag on Eastern, but only talked about doing things for them, because I'm a lazy piece of ****. I also had a tag here briefly, but I also didn't do anything, and I think they took the tag away (or it doesn't exist anymore).

In any case, to clear everything up: I have no technical powers on this forum, nor any special ins with the administration or moderation staff. I've been suspended many many times, so I'm not protected, per se. I don't get banned because most of the time, I don't actually cause any problems and the staff knows I am capable of making good posts if I feel like it, whereas a newbie who comes in spewing bull**** has no history to back up their character. I am not part of the clique anymore, I do not go to the conferences or get-togethers. I haven't posted on DBM in ages. Half of the new folks in the click are neutral towards me or dislike me. If I'm not getting banned, it's because the mods think I have enough useful stuff to add and that my negative posting is either humorous or not harmful, or can be easily contained with deletion or a suspension. I'm a known quantity and thus not much of a threat.

[WidreMann]

lol ,man.. if you check the rules or whatever you want to call em.. warnings go away after a while supposedly.. i still have one from a fat moron way back last year that hasn't been removed and the fat moron was a temp mod during a winter storm threat for the southeast of course. you can't win here man I promise. and what you were saying about a forum taking over.. you're right. the only thing eastern/awx have on their backs that makes them a bit bigger is their little ne conference every year... and with google, search engine optimization, barely any html skills... can be overcome and revenue from ads, etc can create something much bigger. but whatever. i just read lately.

EDIT: here's the warning..

You think I don't get warned and suspended? I've been warned dozens of times and suspended probably as many times.

[valkhorn]

lol ,man.. if you check the rules or whatever you want to call em.. warnings go away after a while supposedly.. i still have one from a fat moron way back last year that hasn't been removed and the fat moron was a temp mod during a winter storm threat for the southeast of course. you can't win here man I promise. and what you were saying about a forum taking over.. you're right. the only thing eastern/awx have on their backs that makes them a bit bigger is their little ne conference every year... and with google, search engine optimization, barely any html skills... can be overcome and revenue from ads, etc can create something much bigger. but whatever. i just read lately.

EDIT: here's the warning..

I thought about doing my own forum but it takes up a lot of time and there's absolutely no money in it. Forums have to do a LOT of hard work to many any real money. The forum I headed had several million posts and thousands of active users, but it survived on donations only.

I love developing sites and programming them, and would love to develop a weather site, but the market is saturated as it is. However, I have been talking to someone about a new weather related site and it does seem like fun work. Maybe I can see if they'll agree to go around any NDAs and let me see what you guys think or something - but who knows. Now that I'm a full time LAMP developer, I can't bid for contracts unless they pay serious money, I will enjoy the work, and I can find time for it.

But, to attempt to put this back on topic, I think we're going to see another decent front on the 29th, but not as strong as the 20th - and then after that probably 1-2 weeks of warmer than normal to normal and dry conditions until the next front, which I don't think will be until later. Plus, with RiNa and for this time of year, I'm surprised but I don't think it will have much impact on the US at this time. I don't think it will be picked up, because by the time the next trough swings through on the 29th there won't be much left of it.

[Cold Rain]

Winter is coming. Sorry for the OT post.

[nchighcountrywx]

NC High Country Rayweather.com Fearless Winter Forecast was Published this Morning

http://www.raysweath...arless+forecast

(courtesy of Raysweather.com)

• near normal snow and
• slightly colder than normal temperatures

The 2011-2012 Winter Forecast

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." is a quote attributed to Mark Twain (although there's no solid evidence that he ever actually said this). That quote is the thrust of this year's winter forecast. The set-up going into winter looks very similar to last year. So, our forecast is for a winter that "rhymes" with last winter, but with less dramatic effects. A general theme of "relatively colder early (November, December, January) but relatively mild late (February, March, April)" will probably be a second rhyme with last winter. A third "rhyme" will be relatively more snow along the western escarpment (near the TN/NC line) because, like last year, much of the snow will come from NW flow events.

So, here's the RaysWeather.Com Winter 2011-2012 Fearless Forecast:

• Total snowfall: Close to the long-term average. Areas along the western upslope of the Appalachians (near the TN/VA state line) may have relatively more snow than the rest of the Southern Appalachians.
• Temperatures: Slightly colder than normal. Expect high temperatures about 1 degree colder than normal.
• Confidence level: Are you kidding? It's crazy to publish any seasonal forecast at all. :-)

Below is forecast snow totals for selected Western NC Cities:

City

Expected Total Snow/Ice for '11-'12

Asheville 15"

Banner Elk 48"

Beech Mountain 110"

Boone 42"

Hickory 7"

Jefferson and West Jefferson 29"

Lenoir 8"

Morganton 9"

Sparta 25"

Spruce Pine 25"

Sugar Mountain 90"

Waynesville 15"

Wilkesboro 11"

[Tacoma]

Got to be more snowfall for the cities than that. One snowfall could give you 15 inches and you know there will be more than one or two good snow storms. I would have guessed like for Asheville maybe 25.

[Local Yokel Wx]

Article discussing the link btw Solar Ultraviolet rays and a cold winter...

http://www.periscopepost.com/2011/10/another-freezing-cold-winter-forecast-suns-ultraviolet-activity-to-blame/

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I thought about doing my own forum but it takes up a lot of time and there's absolutely no money in it. Forums have to do a LOT of hard work to many any real money. The forum I headed had several million posts and thousands of active users, but it survived on donations only.

I love developing sites and programming them, and would love to develop a weather site, but the market is saturated as it is. However, I have been talking to someone about a new weather related site and it does seem like fun work. Maybe I can see if they'll agree to go around any NDAs and let me see what you guys think or something - but who knows. Now that I'm a full time LAMP developer, I can't bid for contracts unless they pay serious money, I will enjoy the work, and I can find time for it.

But, to attempt to put this back on topic, I think we're going to see another decent front on the 29th, but not as strong as the 20th - and then after that probably 1-2 weeks of warmer than normal to normal and dry conditions until the next front, which I don't think will be until later. Plus, with RiNa and for this time of year, I'm surprised but I don't think it will have much impact on the US at this time. I don't think it will be picked up, because by the time the next trough swings through on the 29th there won't be much left of it.

please stop clogging up the weather side with your OT posts. if you have issues/concerns and think people care start a thread in OT thats what it's for. thanks

SE peeps please use the report button if it keeps up

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for posting this Bill....

NC High Country Rayweather.com Fearless Winter Forecast was Published this Morning

http://www.raysweath...arless+forecast

(courtesy of Raysweather.com)

• near normal snow and
• slightly colder than normal temperatures

The 2011-2012 Winter Forecast

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." is a quote attributed to Mark Twain (although there's no solid evidence that he ever actually said this). That quote is the thrust of this year's winter forecast. The set-up going into winter looks very similar to last year. So, our forecast is for a winter that "rhymes" with last winter, but with less dramatic effects. A general theme of "relatively colder early (November, December, January) but relatively mild late (February, March, April)" will probably be a second rhyme with last winter. A third "rhyme" will be relatively more snow along the western escarpment (near the TN/NC line) because, like last year, much of the snow will come from NW flow events.

So, here's the RaysWeather.Com Winter 2011-2012 Fearless Forecast:

• Total snowfall: Close to the long-term average. Areas along the western upslope of the Appalachians (near the TN/VA state line) may have relatively more snow than the rest of the Southern Appalachians.
• Temperatures: Slightly colder than normal. Expect high temperatures about 1 degree colder than normal.
• Confidence level: Are you kidding? It's crazy to publish any seasonal forecast at all. :-)

Below is forecast snow totals for selected Western NC Cities:

City

Expected Total Snow/Ice for '11-'12

Asheville 15"

Banner Elk 48"

Beech Mountain 110"

Boone 42"

Hickory 7"

Jefferson and West Jefferson 29"

Lenoir 8"

Morganton 9"

Sparta 25"

Spruce Pine 25"

Sugar Mountain 90"

Waynesville 15"

Wilkesboro 11"

[valkhorn]

please stop clogging up the weather side with your OT posts. if you have issues/concerns and think people care start a thread in OT thats what it's for. thanks

SE peeps please use the report button if it keeps up

1) I wasn't replying to you

2) I did keep some of my post on topic.

3) Lighten up.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

1) I wasn't replying to you

2) I did keep some of my post on topic.

3) Lighten up.

i don't care if you were not replying to me. we had reports on you i checked them out and fully agreed that alot of your post were OT. and derailing this thread.

if you keep posting OT stuff nonstop on the weather side you will not be here long is all i'm saying.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Got to love what the 0Z GFS spit out in the long-range. Depends two lows over the NE and increasing ridging/heights out ahead of the systems over Greenland. It is the extended so take it FWIW, but it's something to watch as we head towards the middle of November.

[Mr Bob]

3) Lighten up.

Got to love what the 0Z GFS spit out in the long-range. Depends two lows over the NE and increasing ridging/heights out ahead of the systems over Greenland. It is the extended so take it FWIW, but it's something to watch as we head towards the middle of November.

384hr GFS should not be accessible to the public...LOL...In fact it should not be allowed to anyone...

[tnweathernut]

384hr GFS should not be accessible to the public...LOL...In fact it should not be allowed to anyone...

I agree, i don't even know if it should be allowed in private circles. I'd be all for putting the money spent on post 180hr into the pre180 hour to see if we could improve that area more.

It's a pretty map though - nice block, 50/50 and cute lil bowling ball ready to come east.................

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

384hr GFS should not be accessible to the public...LOL...In fact it should not be allowed to anyone...

I agree with you about the 384hr maps .A forecast 16 days out can,and will , change may time before time gets here.But in the same token arn't the global warming crowd doing pretty much the same thing ?Instead of 16 days they try to predict 30 years down the road.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

384hr GFS should not be accessible to the public...LOL...In fact it should not be allowed to anyone...

I know that's why I said FWIW. LOL

[dsaur]

384hr GFS should not be accessible to the public...LOL...In fact it should not be allowed to anyone...

How would I be able to know what I want until the far side range of the Gfs shows it to me I mean, it paints such pretty pictures sometimes. T

[DaculaWeather]

I remember as a kid waiting on the Sears Christmas catalog... you'd open it up and ALL of those toys!!! It's kinda like the 384, you know you not getting any of that stuff but it sure is fun to look at!

[buckeyefan1]

How would I be able to know what I want until the far side range of the Gfs shows it to me I mean, it paints such pretty pictures sometimes. T

That it does

I remember as a kid waiting on the Sears Christmas catalog... you'd open it up and ALL of those toys!!! It's kinda like the 384, you know you not getting any of that stuff but it sure is fun to look at!

[FoothillsNC]

I remember as a kid waiting on the Sears Christmas catalog... you'd open it up and ALL of those toys!!! It's kinda like the 384, you know you not getting any of that stuff but it sure is fun to look at!

thats dead on for me. Every October we got that huge catalog and I started flipping through pages to the toy section. Went straight to the race tracks and choo-choo trains. Santa alternated with those every Christmas. I wish I still had half the trains , either Lionel or the small HO versions. I'd be rich on Ebay. But no, I had to create rollercoasters with them , and the race tracks. Then they started making race tracks with loops, which took out the fun of bending your own tracks.

[jburns]

Like I haven't been around here during storm mode before? You act like I found this place yesterday. I've been lurking here for years before I decided to sign up. And, I have contributed in other threads besides this one.

Thanks for the idle threat though! I'll go ahead and file it.

You sure didn't learn much. It wasn't an idle threat. It was some advice. The fact you can't tell the difference is at the root of your posting problems.

[POWERSTROKE]

thats dead on for me. Every October we got that huge catalog and I started flipping through pages to the toy section. Went straight to the race tracks and choo-choo trains. Santa alternated with those every Christmas. I wish I still had half the trains , either Lionel or the small HO versions. I'd be rich on Ebay. But no, I had to create rollercoasters with them , and the race tracks. Then they started making race tracks with loops, which took out the fun of bending your own tracks.

I still have one of the metal Lionel tracks!!! I loved the JCPenny Christmas book to

[valkhorn]

Got to love what the 0Z GFS spit out in the long-range. Depends two lows over the NE and increasing ridging/heights out ahead of the systems over Greenland. It is the extended so take it FWIW, but it's something to watch as we head towards the middle of November.

You know what they say about a blind squirrel right? Well in this case the blind squirrel goes by the initials JB. I remember years ago him saying that whenever you see that cutoff low in the SW in the long range in the GFS, esp. towards and during winter, that it's usually a big mistake with the run or it's some feedback loop or something.

I'm not sure how right he is with that, but I've seen that happen a lot in the >300 h range of the GFS and I've yet to actually see it come to fruition when it's forecasted this far out.

If you don't like how the >300 hour range of the GFS is, wait 6 hours.

[FoothillsNC]

the most important thing is we're probably heading for some kind of blocking. The GFS and ECMWF have a weak close high for a period (or longer) between western southern Greenland and Baffin Island. Its still too early for the Southeast to get excited, but if we get that flow to show up in Dec and Jan, we'd be in business again. Any kind of splitting of the flow in Canada (whether western or eastern side) is usually good for the Southeast, atleast as far as just making it stormy, many times just cold rain, but we really need that for a Winter storm. I based most of my Winter outlook on that kind of flow again.