Winter 2011-2012

[buckeyefan1]

Feel free to post some substance as much as you can. If you don't like non-substantive posts then don't post them.

I'm not going to go back and quote your stupidity to further clutter up this thread. Why don't you go back and READ. Your complaint was his "forecast".....he did not make a forecast.

A bit of advice to you......READ MORE POST LESS :gun_bandana:

[Blue Ridge]

I'm not going to go back and quote your stupidity to further clutter up this thread. Why don't you go back and READ. Your complaint was his "forecast".....he did not make a forecast.

A bit of advice to you......READ MORE POST LESS :gun_bandana:

Buckeyefan1 for mod.

I'll even ignore the fact that you're a Buckeye fan.

FWIW, I feel that the pattern seen this October is telling as to how the first half of winter will shape up. I'm likely just bandwagon-jumping, but I like the idea that NAO/AO can influence a season more than ENSO state, whether that be in a below-normal or above-normal fashion temperature-wise. This line of thinking has certainly worked recently, at least.

[WidreMann]

Buckeyefan1 for mod.

I'll even ignore the fact that you're a Buckeye fan.

FWIW, I feel that the pattern seen this October is telling as to how the first half of winter will shape up. I'm likely just bandwagon-jumping, but I like the idea that NAO/AO can influence a season more than ENSO state, whether that be in a below-normal or above-normal fashion temperature-wise. This line of thinking has certainly worked recently, at least.

I haven't done any studies myself, but it does seem that October patterns tend to repeat at some point during the winter. In '02, for example, we had several damming events in October (all rain, of course). We went on to have several winter storms based on decent CAD, like the December ice storm and PDS II.

[buckeyefan1]

Buckeyefan1 for mod.

I'll even ignore the fact that you're a Buckeye fan.

FWIW, I feel that the pattern seen this October is telling as to how the first half of winter will shape up. I'm likely just bandwagon-jumping, but I like the idea that NAO/AO can influence a season more than ENSO state, whether that be in a below-normal or above-normal fashion temperature-wise. This line of thinking has certainly worked recently, at least.

I'm glad you don't hold that against me

btw......close to "normal" this winter will make me happy

[HKY_WX]

I've pretty much got my analogs narrowed down. Hoping to post the actual forecast later next week.

[BIG FROSTY]

I've pretty much got my analogs narrowed down. Hoping to post the actual forecast later next week.

Looking forward to it Brandon!!! Bring some love though

[FoothillsNC]

I've pretty much got my analogs narrowed down. Hoping to post the actual forecast later next week.

I was reading a pretty good, thorough outlook somewhere on the web a couple days ago, and I meant to copy his analogs..he made a good point on some Winters, based on -PDO and warming Atlantic. The big years that stood out for his analogs were quite a few of the 1950's and 1960's Winters. I never have really used anologs that much but I could see some repetition of overall patterns like that . Without a real strong PNA pattern, with so many active s/w that we're getting, and considering how many were around last years' Nina, we could end up with many strong s/w in the flow...the only question would be their track. The Midwest to Ohio Valley and Tenn Valley region could be a golden spot for snow lovers, as well as the Apps. For those of us south and east of the Mtn Chain, we normally need a Gulf low or far south track, however the 1950s and 1960's storm track (good winters) had many west to east upper lows, that ended up being major snowstorms. The biggest here that I could find was an upper low moving west to east from TN to NC. with about 16" from a single storm officially (but my dad says it was 2 feet ) .

[Lee]

I was reading a pretty good, thorough outlook somewhere on the web a couple days ago, and I meant to copy his analogs..he made a good point on some Winters, based on -PDO and warming Atlantic. The big years that stood out for his analogs were quite a few of the 1950's and 1960's Winters. I never have really used anologs that much but I could see some repetition of overall patterns like that . Without a real strong PNA pattern, with so many active s/w that we're getting, and considering how many were around last years' Nina, we could end up with many strong s/w in the flow...the only question would be their track. The Midwest to Ohio Valley and Tenn Valley region could be a golden spot for snow lovers, as well as the Apps. For those of us south and east of the Mtn Chain, we normally need a Gulf low or far south track, however the 1950s and 1960's storm track (good winters) had many west to east upper lows, that ended up being major snowstorms. The biggest here that I could find was an upper low moving west to east from TN to NC. with about 16" from a single storm officially (but my dad says it was 2 feet ) .

Robert, do you know what year that one was? I know this area as well as east Tennessee received 1-2 feet in November 1952 but, I'm thinking that one was from a surface LP.

Many of those 50's La nina's had significant snowfalls in November.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert, do you know what year that one was? I know this area as well as east Tennessee received 1-2 feet in November 1952 but, I'm thinking that one was from a surface LP.

Many of those 50's La nina's had significant snowfalls in November.

Feb 14 through 17, 1969 . The 50's and 60's had some pretty good ones here, all coincided with strong -NAO. That NAO long term graph on my outlook highlighted it well.

[HKY_WX]

I was reading a pretty good, thorough outlook somewhere on the web a couple days ago, and I meant to copy his analogs..he made a good point on some Winters, based on -PDO and warming Atlantic. The big years that stood out for his analogs were quite a few of the 1950's and 1960's Winters. I never have really used anologs that much but I could see some repetition of overall patterns like that . Without a real strong PNA pattern, with so many active s/w that we're getting, and considering how many were around last years' Nina, we could end up with many strong s/w in the flow...the only question would be their track. The Midwest to Ohio Valley and Tenn Valley region could be a golden spot for snow lovers, as well as the Apps. For those of us south and east of the Mtn Chain, we normally need a Gulf low or far south track, however the 1950s and 1960's storm track (good winters) had many west to east upper lows, that ended up being major snowstorms. The biggest here that I could find was an upper low moving west to east from TN to NC. with about 16" from a single storm officially (but my dad says it was 2 feet ) .

Yea this year along with the previous two winters continue to match the early/mid 60's. Mainly with the PDO/ENSO/AO combinations. Two of the 3 i've narrowed down are from the 60's.

[burgertime]

Feel free to post some substance as much as you can. If you don't like non-substantive posts then don't post them.

Learn this, Widre is like the lovable scamp of the board and usually is right the majority of the time. Just like real life this board isn't fair, the quicker you learn the better off you will be.

As for the the IMBY posters they should just do what I did, get an account to SV and then only focus on your backyard.

[Lee]

Feb 14 through 17, 1969 . The 50's and 60's had some pretty good ones here, all coincided with strong -NAO. That NAO long term graph on my outlook highlighted it well.

Looking @ records here from the '60's every Winter had either average or above average snowfall in this area. Most above. That is amazing. The NAO is no doubt the biggest player for snowy winters in the SE.

[valkhorn]

I'm not going to go back and quote your stupidity to further clutter up this thread. Why don't you go back and READ. Your complaint was his "forecast".....he did not make a forecast.

A bit of advice to you......READ MORE POST LESS :gun_bandana:

You're the only person who has some beef against me, and frankly can't support your claims by anything. You're making up a strawman argument. Whether it was his forecast or not isn't the point, and I explained that.

Why don't you post more cutesy little smileys and internet memes? I don't think you've used enough in your posts.

Now, to see about adding you to my ignore list.

[valkhorn]

Learn this, Widre is like the lovable scamp of the board and usually is right the majority of the time. Just like real life this board isn't fair, the quicker you learn the better off you will be.

As for the the IMBY posters they should just do what I did, get an account to SV and then only focus on your backyard.

Any proof to back this up? Any links to his forecasts?

He hasn't even made a real forecast for this winter, and I can't find any recent forecasts of his. If you're going to make some argument against someone's forecast, be specific. Or, make your own forecast and use specifics. Otherwise, get off the pot.

You saw the reactions to his post, I wasn't the only one who thought he was trolling. I posted my reasoning, and I'm sure other people came up with the same conclusion that I did. It's no use singling me out for someone else's behavior.

As to what I forecast, it's usually for my backyard only, so there you have it.

[griteater]

Robert, do you know what year that one was? I know this area as well as east Tennessee received 1-2 feet in November 1952 but, I'm thinking that one was from a surface LP.

Many of those 50's La nina's had significant snowfalls in November.

Knoxville received 18.2 inches of snow on Nov 21-22, 1952. Asheville 1.9 inches. Here's an 8 day loop showing the culprit - a strong upper low bottoming out in Georgia in an extremely blocky pattern.

[WidreMann]

lol @ valkhorn

[DaculaWeather]

Any proof to back this up? Any links to his forecasts?

He hasn't even made a real forecast for this winter, and I can't find any recent forecasts of his. If you're going to make some argument against someone's forecast, be specific. Or, make your own forecast and use specifics. Otherwise, get off the pot.

You saw the reactions to his post, I wasn't the only one who thought he was trolling. I posted my reasoning, and I'm sure other people came up with the same conclusion that I did. It's no use singling me out for someone else's behavior.

As to what I forecast, it's usually for my backyard only, so there you have it.

Drop it please.

[burgertime]

Any proof to back this up? Any links to his forecasts?

He hasn't even made a real forecast for this winter, and I can't find any recent forecasts of his. If you're going to make some argument against someone's forecast, be specific. Or, make your own forecast and use specifics. Otherwise, get off the pot.

You saw the reactions to his post, I wasn't the only one who thought he was trolling. I posted my reasoning, and I'm sure other people came up with the same conclusion that I did. It's no use singling me out for someone else's behavior.

As to what I forecast, it's usually for my backyard only, so there you have it.

Here's the thing and we'll end it at this. He trolls...all the time and he can. He is one of the few that can. Outside of that look at him trolling during most SE snow storms, he is typically right since most snows under perform around the RDU and CLT area. So again is it fair that he can troll and you can't? No. Should that bring down your estimation of this board? No. Do we like Widre and his trolling? Yes most of us do. Also the difference between him and other n00b posters is that he actually HAS weather knowledge and will use it (sometimes unjustly) to back up what he is saying.

[HKY_WX]

Widre is a board tech and been around for a decade on the wx boards. He get's a troll pass and rightly so.

[Mr Bob]

Here's the thing and we'll end it at this. He trolls...all the time and he can. He is one of the few that can. Outside of that look at him trolling during most SE snow storms, he is typically right since most snows under perform around the RDU and CLT area. So again is it fair that he can troll and you can't? No. Should that bring down your estimation of this board? No. Do we like Widre and his trolling? Yes most of us do. Also the difference between him and other n00b posters is that he actually HAS weather knowledge and will use it (sometimes unjustly) to back up what he is saying.

Everyone knows Widre and many have met him...he is not some anonymous person demanding all kinds of facts about everything and anything. That's what makes the difference.Some people want to be anonymous and there is nothing wrong with that...but understand why someone might be getting what maybe considered a pass while others don't. This is part of the foundation of Eastern and now American...now enough of this dead horse....

[valkhorn]

lol @ valkhorn

Welcome to the ignore list.

[Lee]

Knoxville received 18.2 inches of snow on Nov 21-22, 1952. Asheville 1.9 inches. Here's an 8 day loop showing the culprit - a strong upper low bottoming out in Georgia in an extremely blocky pattern.

Yeah, that blocking setup allowed this side of the Apps to get the "big snow". A 50-50 low was not lodged in. what there was, got booted and replaced with that HP as the LP neared and developed. Thus the descrepancy between Knox and Ashe..

I can remember similar setups in some of the late 70's winters and also thru much of the 80's.

[valkhorn]

Here's the thing and we'll end it at this. He trolls...all the time and he can. He is one of the few that can. Outside of that look at him trolling during most SE snow storms, he is typically right since most snows under perform around the RDU and CLT area. So again is it fair that he can troll and you can't? No. Should that bring down your estimation of this board? No. Do we like Widre and his trolling? Yes most of us do. Also the difference between him and other n00b posters is that he actually HAS weather knowledge and will use it (sometimes unjustly) to back up what he is saying.

Nobody should get a pass for being a jerk, else why have any rules to begin with? I ran a pretty large forum for a couple years (and was the 'tech', and all of that) and I do know some things about running forums. But, it ate up too much of my time and after dealing with a few million posts on the forum (yes it was much larger than this one) I passed it along to someone else. When you have favoritism and 'seniority' (meaning someone can be a jerk just because they've been around a while), then you're going to drive away a lot of new members and eventually some other forum is going to take over. Notice how this forum took over from others? Well the exact same thing can happen again. I was a lurker for a few years before deciding to actually post, but behavior like this is going to drive me away from the forum.

But seeing as how I've been ganged up on because I tried to provide substance, and someone else acts like a goof-off and gets a pass because of his supposed seniority (forum 'techs' are a dime a dozen, I went through a few before handling things myself), and supposed weather knowledge (which he doesn't seem to back up around here), or someone else gets a pass simply because they're a woman (someone else) then you're only damaging yourself.

Of course, I should be the one to drop it because I'm speaking my mind, while others can freely speak theirs. I don't expect this forum to be fair (and my expectations have dropped recently), but there's no reason why I can't point out hypocrisy.

[valkhorn]

Yeah, that blocking setup allowed this side of the Apps to get the "big snow". A 50-50 low was not lodged in. what there was, got booted and replaced with that HP as the LP neared and developed. Thus the descrepancy between Knox and Ashe..

I can remember similar setups in some of the late 70's winters and also thru much of the 80's.

If you look at the totals, what happened is that a deformation band set up on the west side of the apps and parked itself there for most of the evening/night. A similar set up happened for most of the other large snows that Knoxville has gotten.

Plus, you can't really complain that Asheville got shafted with that - because Asheville not only gets more snow than Knoxville does per annum, but Asheville has had larger snowstorms - including two a couple winters ago that gave more than a foot if I'm not mistaken.

[jburns]

, but behavior like this is going to drive me away from the forum.

Based on your posts so far this would be a plus. It's not about you. If we were currently in storm mode you would already be gone. You better adjust your posting style while you still have the chance.

[Lee]

If you look at the totals, what happened is that a deformation band set up on the west side of the apps and parked itself there for most of the evening/night. A similar set up happened for most of the other large snows that Knoxville has gotten.

Plus, you can't really complain that Asheville got shafted with that - because Asheville not only gets more snow than Knoxville does per annum, but Asheville has had larger snowstorms - including two a couple winters ago that gave more than a foot if I'm not mistaken.

BUT, why did/does that happen Val? I was just pointing out the "bigger picture" behind the setup. If there had been a big CAD sig. there, you can bet Ashe would have got pummeled and probably not Knox as downsloping would have had something to say about that "Deformation band". too.

I don't think you meant it to come across as it sounded but, if you did, I wasn't complaining over Ashe and their big snows.?.I don't have a horse in the race; don't live there.

However, I do know all about the setup's for the Tn Valley area as have lived here all my life and kept data for my local for over 30 years. I agree Def bands have and do produce for the area. One other item delivering the big snows in the Tn. Valley are over running events. these generally have very little wind involved and thus no worry of downsloping.

Unfortunately(if you like snow), the great Valley between the Cumberlands and the Smokies is an area that gets downsloping from every direction other than the SW.

[buckeyefan1]

Nobody should get a pass for being a jerk, else why have any rules to begin with? I ran a pretty large forum for a couple years (and was the 'tech', and all of that) and I do know some things about running forums. But, it ate up too much of my time and after dealing with a few million posts on the forum (yes it was much larger than this one) I passed it along to someone else. When you have favoritism and 'seniority' (meaning someone can be a jerk just because they've been around a while), then you're going to drive away a lot of new members and eventually some other forum is going to take over. Notice how this forum took over from others? Well the exact same thing can happen again. I was a lurker for a few years before deciding to actually post, but behavior like this is going to drive me away from the forum.

But seeing as how I've been ganged up on because I tried to provide substance, and someone else acts like a goof-off and gets a pass because of his supposed seniority (forum 'techs' are a dime a dozen, I went through a few before handling things myself), and supposed weather knowledge (which he doesn't seem to back up around here), or someone else gets a pass simply because they're a woman (someone else) then you're only damaging yourself.

Of course, I should be the one to drop it because I'm speaking my mind, while others can freely speak theirs. I don't expect this forum to be fair (and my expectations have dropped recently), but there's no reason why I can't point out hypocrisy.

You have derailed this thread enough. If you have anything further to say, take it to the banter thread OT Why? See the bolded below.......

Based on your posts so far this would be a plus. It's not about you. If we were currently in storm mode you would already be gone. You better adjust your posting style while you still have the chance.

[valkhorn]

BUT, why did/does that happen Val? I was just pointing out the "bigger picture" behind the setup. If there had been a big CAD sig. there, you can bet Ashe would have got pummeled and probably not Knox as downsloping would have had something to say about that "Deformation band". too.

I don't think you meant it to come across as it sounded but, if you did, I wasn't complaining over Ashe and their big snows.?.I don't have a horse in the race; don't live there.

However, I do know all about the setup's for the Tn Valley area as have lived here all my life and kept data for my local for over 30 years. I agree Def bands have and do produce for the area. One other item delivering the big snows in the Tn. Valley are over running events. these generally have very little wind involved and thus no worry of downsloping.

Unfortunately(if you like snow), the great Valley between the Cumberlands and the Smokies is an area that gets downsloping from every direction other than the SW.

No offense meant. I'm a transplant to Knox, but I didn't move here for the weather - well partially because I grew up near the gulf coast and was tired of the heat/tropical weather.

I think it was two winters ago where warm air nosed itself up through the TN valley during what had the potential to be a significant snowstorm and cut back on accumulations in Knox significantly. Elevation can be your friend if you have it, and your enemy if you don't.

I've looked at the data for other places like Nashville, and they don't seem to get deformation bands as much - and most of their heavier snows have been overrunning precip. In fact, I believe their largest single day snow was about 8" compared to Knox's 18".

EDIT: I just looked at a few forecasts, and it seems after this next cold front on the 29th we're probably not going to see much action for a week or two. It looks like it's time for the pattern to move towards something more zonal anyway after the next front or two - and so I anticipate that while the growing season has and will end for us in the TN valley and possibly further south, we'll have a little warmth before the next cool shot. This should give time for the snowpack to build in Canada though, so we'll probably see our first highs in the 30s by the 2nd half of November. I could be wrong, but if you like cold air you probably want it to build before heading south anyway.

[valkhorn]

Based on your posts so far this would be a plus. It's not about you. If we were currently in storm mode you would already be gone. You better adjust your posting style while you still have the chance.

Like I haven't been around here during storm mode before? You act like I found this place yesterday. I've been lurking here for years before I decided to sign up. And, I have contributed in other threads besides this one.

Thanks for the idle threat though! I'll go ahead and file it.

[Blue Ridge]

I haven't done any studies myself, but it does seem that October patterns tend to repeat at some point during the winter. In '02, for example, we had several damming events in October (all rain, of course). We went on to have several winter storms based on decent CAD, like the December ice storm and PDS II.

Note to others: This is an example of why Widre, despite his wintertime trolling, is a useful member. Engaging one another in discussion is what this is all about.