LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The dynamical and statistical models beg to differ. Dynamical models show an average of -0.7 for DJF. Statistical models show an average of -0.6 for DJF - http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html Interesting... Are those graphs updated? At the least I would guess they are three weeks old maybe more. Compared to the previous data output the La Nina is also trending stronger from that set of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Interesting... Are those graphs updated? At the least I would guess they are three weeks old maybe more. Compared to the previous data output the La Nina is also trending stronger from that set of models. The website shows a date of Oct 19 and the graph has model predictions "from Oct 2011".....but yeah, not sure why it seems to show a few weeks or one month lag time with the obs stopping in Sept, but it being a mid-Oct forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The website shows a date of Oct 19 and the graph has model predictions "from Oct 2011".....but yeah, not sure why it seems to show a few weeks or one month lag time with the obs stopping in Sept, but it being a mid-Oct forecast. I have heard before that the CFS tends to overdo the La Nina's. This is all the fun of pre-winter stuff, following the different data sets and seeing which one comes out on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 +1 Winter time fun is almost here I'm going to have to disagree w/ this statement. This place would not be near as fun if it was moderated any different than it is now. Imo, Lookout does a fantastic job w/ the southeast forum. During the busy times of winter he spends a lot of time here making sure the southeast forum is the best. As far as serious weather discussion goes, you're not going to find a better place than here to discuss upcoming events. Sure you have some joking around but who wants it to be serious around here all the time? I know I don't. I've got to know a lot of people here over the last 7 years as we've jumped from WWB to Eastern to now American and I don't want this to become some over moderated forum that I can't cut up w/ my fellow weather weenies from time to time. Of course this is just my opinion and I'm sorry you don't find this a place to seriously discuss weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 NOAA forecasting an equal chance of a warm or cool winter for the SE is "going all out"? I'm not too sure how that is, if they flat out predicted a cool winter while in a La Nina phase that would be going out on a limb. I think it's good that they are playing it safe by saying it could go either way because it certainly could. Just because La Nina will be around doesn't mean it will automatically be warm and dry, anything could throw a monkey wrench into that. I agree with you about the unknown about LaNina winters.Who would have predicted last year's winter with the Christmas Snow and the Jan storm that brought Atlanta to a stand still as well ?Every forecast I saw last year,except for Old Farmers Almanac, called for little if any winter weather and a blow torch for January.We all know how that turned out. I believe it was Joe Bastardi who last winter talked about second year LaNina's being colder.If that's the case we should come out pretty well this winter with good snows and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yet another example of why I dont use this forum as a serious place for weather discussion - note to moderator - get on the ball, clean it up and people will come! Widre is not the problem...he has been a valuable contributer in forum life for over a decade...the problem is the people who aren't equipped to discuss...the IMBY's etc...they are not here to contribute. I know lookout and his compadres have to walk a fine line as some of the biggest IMBY's and weenies eventually turn into good posters but the majority are not really here to discuss weather, share in the enjoyment of a weather event, etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 From their standpoint, 50/50 probably is out on a limb...probable moderate La Nina plus monster Texas drought and slow snow pack increase in Eurasia are all signs pointing to the potential of a warmer winter in the southeastern US....but at least they are paying homage to the -NAO/AO trend over the last couple of winters... I would be worried about a warmer winter this year but since as I get older I prefer warm....I still enjoy the two to three snowstorms per year over the last couple so that would be disappointing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 General gist for the south. Cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Widre is not the problem...he has been a valuable contributer in forum life for over a decade...the problem is the people who aren't equipped to discuss...the IMBY's etc...they are not here to contribute. I know lookout and his compadres have to walk a fine line as some of the biggest IMBY's and weenies eventually turn into good posters but the majority are not really here to discuss weather, share in the enjoyment of a weather event, etc etc. You nailed it. Back when we all started posting, we all wanted to learn as much as we could. Nowadays, all we get is people who want to know what's going to happen IMBY and then check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 From their standpoint, 50/50 probably is out on a limb...probable moderate La Nina plus monster Texas drought and slow snow pack increase in Eurasia are all signs pointing to the potential of a warmer winter in the southeastern US....but at least they are paying homage to the -NAO/AO trend over the last couple of winters... I would be worried about a warmer winter this year but since as I get older I prefer warm....I still enjoy the two to three snowstorms per year over the last couple so that would be disappointing... A warmer winter this year compared to last winter or compared to normal ? It can be warmer than last winter and still be a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Sunny and 65 can't possibly be a legitimate forecast. We've never had a winter where every day was sunny and 65. Even San Diego probably has no such winter on record. That is obviously a joke. The idea, of course, is that weather will favor warm and dry, because of the Nina and the general trends we've seen this year. Which ones? I understand your viewpoint and forecast, I think we all do. Anyone who is just saying you're a troll might be justified, but that's because you're known as extremely conservative around here. I've seen posts from you with intense terminology that I cant even venture to understand arguing your point. Point being, where is that stuff? Let me know aside from La Nina that it will be the way you say it will be, when a lot of mets are saying it will be at least average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Widre is not the problem...he has been a valuable contributer in forum life for over a decade...the problem is the people who aren't equipped to discuss...the IMBY's etc...they are not here to contribute. I know lookout and his compadres have to walk a fine line as some of the biggest IMBY's and weenies eventually turn into good posters but the majority are not really here to discuss weather, share in the enjoyment of a weather event, etc etc. He may have been a great contributer back then, but when you make posts without really backing them up you're doing nothing but trolling. This is not nice: * I think the winter will be warm/cold * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and you're stupid for not agreeing with me * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I will not say why I think so, or spend any effort backing up my claims * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I not only will not back up my posts with any data, I will knock down other forecasts which rely on mountains of data Widre is doing one or several of the above. If he wants to be taken seriously by me, he should back up his forecasts with actual data, or actually make real forecasts, or back up his refutations of other peoples forecasts with actual data. He wasted a lot of people's time here by not doing anything of the sort, and he frankly was just trolling - which is to say he was making posts just to stir people up. If that wasn't his intent, that's how he was perceived, at least by me, and my above reasons should point out why he was perceived that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm definately thinking this Nov. and Dec. will be a roller coaster in the temperature department across the South with some snow at least through northern Alabama in November OR December. My analogs for this year, which are 2nd and 3rd year la ninas, seem to have the trend if the NAO average negative and the EP/NP<.3 for November it has snowed in Birmingham between Nov. 24-30 and there are 5 out of 8 analog years to match that. The other 3 years featured a -NAO for Nov. but a EP/NP>.3 ended up seeing snow in Dec. in either AL, GA or MS mainly between the dates of Dec. 14-18 or 23-29. So 8 out of 8 years have snow in some portion of the South. A fly in the ointment so to say may be the fact that the years it snowed in Nov. the MJO started the month in phase 7 or 8. The years that didn't see snow were generally in phase 4,5 or 6 at the start of the month which appears could be the case this year (NCEP is forecasting either a weak phase 2 while Euro models a weak/mod phase 3.) But I don't want to put too much weight on the MJO data since it is only available for 2 out of my 5 years that it snowed in November across the South. For Dec. MJO data is available for 5 of the 6 years it snowed in Dec. across the South and the MJO was in either 7,8,1,2 and twice in 5 either during the event or 5-14 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm going to have to disagree w/ this statement. This place would not be near as fun if it was moderated any different than it is now. Imo, Lookout does a fantastic job w/ the southeast forum. During the busy times of winter he spends a lot of time here making sure the southeast forum is the best. As far as serious weather discussion goes, you're not going to find a better place than here to discuss upcoming events. Sure you have some joking around but who wants it to be serious around here all the time? I know I don't. I've got to know a lot of people here over the last 7 years as we've jumped from WWB to Eastern to now American and I don't want this to become some over moderated forum that I can't cut up w/ my fellow weather weenies from time to time. Of course this is just my opinion and I'm sorry you don't find this a place to seriously discuss weather. +1 Widre is not the problem...he has been a valuable contributer in forum life for over a decade...the problem is the people who aren't equipped to discuss...the IMBY's etc...they are not here to contribute. I know lookout and his compadres have to walk a fine line as some of the biggest IMBY's and weenies eventually turn into good posters but the majority are not really here to discuss weather, share in the enjoyment of a weather event, etc etc. +1 You nailed it. Back when we all started posting, we all wanted to learn as much as we could. Nowadays, all we get is people who want to know what's going to happen IMBY and then check out. +1 He may have been a great contributer back then, but when you make posts without really backing them up you're doing nothing but trolling. This is not nice: * I think the winter will be warm/cold * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and you're stupid for not agreeing with me * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I will not say why I think so, or spend any effort backing up my claims * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I not only will not back up my posts with any data, I will knock down other forecasts which rely on mountains of data Widre is doing one or several of the above. If he wants to be taken seriously by me, he should back up his forecasts with actual data, or actually make real forecasts, or back up his refutations of other peoples forecasts with actual data. He wasted a lot of people's time here by not doing anything of the sort, and he frankly was just trolling - which is to say he was making posts just to stir people up. If that wasn't his intent, that's how he was perceived, at least by me, and my above reasons should point out why he was perceived that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 He may have been a great contributer back then, but when you make posts without really backing them up you're doing nothing but trolling. This is not nice: * I think the winter will be warm/cold * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and you're stupid for not agreeing with me * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I will not say why I think so, or spend any effort backing up my claims * I think the winter will be warm/cold, and I not only will not back up my posts with any data, I will knock down other forecasts which rely on mountains of data Widre is doing one or several of the above. If he wants to be taken seriously by me, he should back up his forecasts with actual data, or actually make real forecasts, or back up his refutations of other peoples forecasts with actual data. He wasted a lot of people's time here by not doing anything of the sort, and he frankly was just trolling - which is to say he was making posts just to stir people up. If that wasn't his intent, that's how he was perceived, at least by me, and my above reasons should point out why he was perceived that way. In your case....the ignore function would probably work best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A warmer winter this year compared to last winter or compared to normal ? It can be warmer than last winter and still be a cold winter. Warmer than average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Mr. Bob, I think this is as appropriate a place to say this as any. When I first hit the internet to find other people who loved winter wx and extreme weather as much as I did, in the SE, Mr. Bob and Larry (GAwx) were the 2 guys who I learned the most from over at Peach State wx. God rest it's little soul. Anyways, I was not the most up to date poster and understander of the GFS, EURO, CMC, ect... but with their knowledge and my LESS POSTING and more reading of what they said and observed I learned. A LOT! As winter approaches, I can not express to you guys enough, POST LESS, READ MORE. You may not like what the pro's are forecasting for YBY, but appreciate their expertise and knowledge and experience for what it is. And for Goodness sakes, read your post before you hit the POST button and ask yourself this, "Am I contributing to the board? Or am I just taking up space making it harder for others to READ MORE?" Ok, I will get off my soap box now. Stepping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 *facepalm* Why don't you show how I'm wrong or back up your statement somehow? You're entitled to your own opinion, but I won't take it seriously unless you back it with substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'm definately thinking this Nov. and Dec. will be a roller coaster in the temperature department across the South with some snow at least through northern Alabama in November OR December. My analogs for this year, which are 2nd and 3rd year la ninas, seem to have the trend if the NAO average negative and the EP/NP<.3 for November it has snowed in Birmingham between Nov. 24-30 and there are 5 out of 8 analog years to match that. The other 3 years featured a -NAO for Nov. but a EP/NP>.3 ended up seeing snow in Dec. in either AL, GA or MS mainly between the dates of Dec. 14-18 or 23-29. So 8 out of 8 years have snow in some portion of the South. A fly in the ointment so to say may be the fact that the years it snowed in Nov. the MJO started the month in phase 7 or 8. The years that didn't see snow were generally in phase 4,5 or 6 at the start of the month which appears could be the case this year (NCEP is forecasting either a weak phase 2 while Euro models a weak/mod phase 3.) But I don't want to put too much weight on the MJO data since it is only available for 2 out of my 5 years that it snowed in November across the South. For Dec. MJO data is available for 5 of the 6 years it snowed in Dec. across the South and the MJO was in either 7,8,1,2 and twice in 5 either during the event or 5-14 days prior. Thanks for this! Dates are noted...and I'm ready to see some flakes. Hope it comes to pass. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 2nd! Thanks for posting your thoughts QVectorman ! Thanks for this! Dates are noted...and I'm ready to see some flakes. Hope it comes to pass. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Why don't you show how I'm wrong or back up your statement somehow? You're entitled to your own opinion, but I won't take it seriously unless you back it with substance. You really should read more and post less...... I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST...... This was immediately followed by posts by those that would qualify as mby posters....including yours below You heard it here first. Widre's forecast for the southeast for the entire winter is sunny and 65. This includes the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains, Appalachians, and the sub-tropical areas of South Florida. It also includes the middle of the night. That's right. A constant temperature, no setting sun, no clouds, no precip the entire winter. I could say partly cloudy and 66 and be just as right. Way to go. Again....please see above. YOU called it a forecast. The others (that do not contribute) called it a forecast. He posted his opinion based on climo, but did not give a forecast. This thread now has two pages of stupidity because some people do not know how to read. If you don't like to read his thoughts...use the ignore feature. Now....back to your regular scheduled winter discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 You really should read more and post less...... THIS IS NOT A FORECAST...... This was immediately followed by posts by those that would qualify as mby posters....including yours below Again....please see above. YOU called it a forecast. The others (that do not contribute) called it a forecast. He posted his opinion based on climo, but did not give a forecast. This thread now has two pages of stupidity because some people do not know how to read. If you don't like to read his thoughts...use the ignore feature. Now....back to your regular scheduled winter discussion I see your point of view but I do not agree with it. Widre decided to knock someone's well-thought out and reasoned forecast, but didn't bother to put up much data as to why he thought that way. Every time he was questioned, he gave nothing but rhetoric with nothing to back it up. The only time he came close to a forecast of his own was sarcasm and snark. I pointed this out by showing how ridiculous his snark was. If his opinion was based on climo, then it would be 100% normal with averages. I fail to see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I see your point of view but I do not agree with it. Widre decided to knock someone's well-thought out and reasoned forecast, but didn't bother to put up much data as to why he thought that way. Every time he was questioned, he gave nothing but rhetoric with nothing to back it up. The only time he came close to a forecast of his own was sarcasm and snark. I pointed this out by showing how ridiculous his snark was. If his opinion was based on climo, then it would be 100% normal with averages. I fail to see your point. I'll repeat this one more time.....It was NOT a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I'll repeat this one more time.....It was NOT a forecast. If all you can do is respond with cliches and memes, then all I gotta say is "That's like, your opinion, man" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 If all you can do is respond with cliches and memes, then all I gotta say is "That's like, your opinion, man" FYI, buckeyefan1 is not a man. Also anytime you post to buckeyefan1 it helps to include a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 If all you can do is respond with cliches and memes, then all I gotta say is "That's like, your opinion, man" :axe: This place is absolutely going to hell in a hand basket.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FYI, buckeyefan1 is not a man. Also anytime you post to buckeyefan1 it helps to include a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 FYI, buckeyefan1 is not a man. Also anytime you post to buckeyefan1 it helps to include a . It's a quote from The Big Lebowski. Also, my opinion of someone doesn't immediately change based on their gender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Feel free to post some substance as much as you can. If you don't like non-substantive posts then don't post them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 In your case....the ignore function would probably work best... Is there a self ignore feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.