CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65. Sunny and 65 degrees would be just fine...........In August! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiya Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65. I do like it as long as we don't get sever weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I don't think you want to hear it unless you like sunny and 65. You heard it here first. Widre's forecast for the southeast for the entire winter is sunny and 65. This includes the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains, Appalachians, and the sub-tropical areas of South Florida. It also includes the middle of the night. That's right. A constant temperature, no setting sun, no clouds, no precip the entire winter. I could say partly cloudy and 66 and be just as right. Way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 You heard it here first. Widre's forecast for the southeast for the entire winter is sunny and 65. This includes the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains, Appalachians, and the sub-tropical areas of South Florida. It also includes the middle of the night. That's right. A constant temperature, no setting sun, no clouds, no precip the entire winter. I could say partly cloudy and 66 and be just as right. Way to go. Yet another example of why I dont use this forum as a serious place for weather discussion - note to moderator - get on the ball, clean it up and people will come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 LOL, good to see things haven't changed much around here. I see Widre is up to his normal tricks again. I've been on these weather boards going on 7 years and Widre has been doing this act since I've been on but don't let him fool you, he does know somethings about the science. Just wait until we're tracking the first snowstorm of the year on radar, that's when he's at his finest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 LOL, good to see things haven't changed much around here. I see Widre is up to his normal tricks again. I've been on these weather boards going on 7 years and Widre has been doing this act since I've been on but don't let him fool you, he does know somethings about the science. Just wait until we're tracking the first snowstorm of the year on radar, that's when he's at his finest! Then I'll bookmark this thread and point out his global forecast of sunny and 65. As to tracking things on the radar, that doesn't take much skill compared to forecasting. Tracking things on a radar is just reading it. Forecasting is actually interpreting the data and putting your reputation on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 sounds like a wish cast You heard it here first. Widre's forecast for the southeast for the entire winter is sunny and 65. This includes the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains, Appalachians, and the sub-tropical areas of South Florida. It also includes the middle of the night. That's right. A constant temperature, no setting sun, no clouds, no precip the entire winter. I could say partly cloudy and 66 and be just as right. Way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 From Joe Bastardi - http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/joe-bastardi-the-why-behind-the-what-905599/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yet another example of why I dont use this forum as a serious place for weather discussion - note to moderator - get on the ball, clean it up and people will come! I agree that some of the "mess" needs to be eradicated, and this thread was destined for disaster from the beginning. However, it is what you make of it; by allowing Widre and the various teenagers that run amuck to bother you, your experience will be undesirable. Check out the "Weather Forecasting and Discussion Forum" if you're searching for more strict scientific discussion. I will say that we are severely lacking in posters from Middle and Western Tennessee, and your observations would make a great addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 sounds like a wish cast It wouldn't be a wish for me because it would be well above average for the winter for my location. If it gets to 65 and sunny above 6000' around here during the winter at all then that would be so far above normal that I would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I agree that some of the "mess" needs to be eradicated, and this thread was destined for disaster from the beginning. However, it is what you make of it; by allowing Widre and the various teenagers that run amuck to bother you, your experience will be undesirable. Check out the "Weather Forecasting and Discussion Forum" if you're searching for more strict scientific discussion. I will say that we are severely lacking in posters from Middle and Western Tennessee, and your observations would make a great addition. Agreed. By the way, I see the front hasn't completely gotten to you in Unicoi. Just wait. It's already in the mid 40s at my house in west Knox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 From Joe Bastardi - http://www.statecoll...he-what-905599/ I don't mind him making 3 month forecasts. He's entitled to do that, but he should stop spouting on subjects he knows nothing about - namely Climate Science. He only defeats himself by doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Agreed. By the way, I see the front hasn't completely gotten to you in Unicoi. Just wait. It's already in the mid 40s at my house in west Knox. It hasn't, and as a result is still quite rainy. Not that I mind... The temperature has dropped from 64° around noon to 55.8° now, and there's little breeze to speak of. But, uh, anyway...winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It hasn't, and as a result is still quite rainy. Not that I mind... The temperature has dropped from 64° around noon to 55.8° now, and there's little breeze to speak of. But, uh, anyway...winter... Winter is coming. This was the 06z GFS for today. It's been pretty consistent for this time frame. We'll have to see how it holds in the <180 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Snow cover is expanding quicker than last year according to DT. http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/10/winterpattern-2011-12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Snow cover is expanding quicker than last year according to DT. http://www.wxrisk.co...attern-2011-12/ Yes, we now have more snow cover around the globe than this time last year. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24854-and-we-begin-part-deux/page__st__180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yes, we now have more snow cover around the globe than this time last year. http://www.americanw...x/page__st__180 I always portend that October isn't a good time to compare years since so much can change from week to week, or day to day. Plus we had little snowcover for the October 1st cold front that was well below normal for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Then I'll bookmark this thread and point out his global forecast of sunny and 65. As to tracking things on the radar, that doesn't take much skill compared to forecasting. Tracking things on a radar is just reading it. Forecasting is actually interpreting the data and putting your reputation on the line. I'm not defending Widre but I doubt his sunny and 65 was a forecast. You'll know it when he's making a forecast. That was just Widre's way of getting stuff started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yet another example of why I dont use this forum as a serious place for weather discussion - note to moderator - get on the ball, clean it up and people will come! I'm going to have to disagree w/ this statement. This place would not be near as fun if it was moderated any different than it is now. Imo, Lookout does a fantastic job w/ the southeast forum. During the busy times of winter he spends a lot of time here making sure the southeast forum is the best. As far as serious weather discussion goes, you're not going to find a better place than here to discuss upcoming events. Sure you have some joking around but who wants it to be serious around here all the time? I know I don't. I've got to know a lot of people here over the last 7 years as we've jumped from WWB to Eastern to now American and I don't want this to become some over moderated forum that I can't cut up w/ my fellow weather weenies from time to time. Of course this is just my opinion and I'm sorry you don't find this a place to seriously discuss weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I'm not defending Widre but I doubt his sunny and 65 was a forecast. You'll know it when he's making a forecast. That was just Widre's way of getting stuff started. Sunny and 65 can't possibly be a legitimate forecast. We've never had a winter where every day was sunny and 65. Even San Diego probably has no such winter on record. That is obviously a joke. The idea, of course, is that weather will favor warm and dry, because of the Nina and the general trends we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Sunny and 65 can't possibly be a legitimate forecast. We've never had a winter where every day was sunny and 65. Even San Diego probably has no such winter on record. That is obviously a joke. The idea, of course, is that weather will favor warm and dry, because of the Nina and the general trends we've seen this year. Yep and I agree with you in general. This is going to be a long winter if you are correct. I can see the cliff divers now..... NOAA really went out on a limb with their SE forecast. Equal chances for normal, warm and colder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I always portend that October isn't a good time to compare years since so much can change from week to week, or day to day. Plus we had little snowcover for the October 1st cold front that was well below normal for the time of year. This study says that the key time and place for snowcover is October in Eurasia (this is from the main board) - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 La Nina is about to get quite a bit stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yep and I agree with you in general. This is going to be a long winter if you are correct. I can see the cliff divers now..... NOAA really went out on a limb with their SE forecast. Equal chances for normal, warm and colder weather. Talk about going all out. What was with the new "Model" they referenced in their forecast? Did I miss something? Edit: Now I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 NOAA forecasting an equal chance of a warm or cool winter for the SE is "going all out"? I'm not too sure how that is, if they flat out predicted a cool winter while in a La Nina phase that would be going out on a limb. I think it's good that they are playing it safe by saying it could go either way because it certainly could. Just because La Nina will be around doesn't mean it will automatically be warm and dry, anything could throw a monkey wrench into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 So many people just don't get the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting, especially in the long term. "Equal chances" is very much a forecast and very much a strong forecast. The only thing I'd fault them for is not showing the full probability distribution for each location and instead picking the highest points on the curves and putting those on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 NOAA forecasting an equal chance of a warm or cool winter for the SE is "going all out"? I'm not too sure how that is, if they flat out predicted a cool winter while in a La Nina phase that would be going out on a limb. I think it's good that they are playing it safe by saying it could go either way because it certainly could. Just because La Nina will be around doesn't mean it will automatically be warm and dry, anything could throw a monkey wrench into that. my head just exploded..... either you did not pick up on the sarcasm in the last two posts about NOAA's forecast or you are really good at it yourself. Contrary to Widerman I am not a fan of "playing it safe" with equal chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 my head just exploded..... either you did not pick up on the sarcasm in the last two posts about NOAA's forecast or you are really good at it yourself. Contrary to Widerman I am not a fan of "playing it safe" with equal chances. No, I didn't, if I did I obviously wouldn't have bothered responding. Sometimes sarcasm isn't easily picked up on a forum as it is when you're face to face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 No, I didn't, if I did I obviously wouldn't have bothered responding. Sometimes sarcasm isn't easily picked up on a forum as it is when you're face to face. I use red text on other boards to signify sarcasm. You are correct it does not come over very well in just plain text... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 La Nina is about to get quite a bit stronger... The dynamical and statistical models beg to differ. Dynamical models show an average of -0.7 for DJF. Statistical models show an average of -0.6 for DJF - http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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