LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Right or wrong, got to hand it to him for being thorough. That's an interesting angle on the NHemisphere/Eurasia snowcover in the fall....currently 7th highest since 1965 I really doubt that number at this point, snow cover is below normal right now and well below the past two years at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I really doubt that number at this point, snow cover is below normal right now and well below the past two years at this point. http://www.americanw...x/page__st__140 It isn't about now. The correlation comes in when you look at avg. snowcover for October at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 It isn't about now. The correlation comes in when you look at avg. snowcover for October at the end of the month. I'm just calling it like I see it. Snowcover has been below average for most, if not all of the month which will impact the average snowfall for October. Things could change in a hurry, everyone would love to see the amounts be higher at this point. I know very little about the correlation but this link covers the changing snowcover very well. Here is to hoping the snowcover takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Enjoyed DT's write up and actually learned a few things...I've never taken a single meteorology class, so his 60+ powerpoint really taught me a few things about what to concider when doing a winter forecast. I'll agree that his is the most "positive" for us, but I'll take it! Can't wait to see some of our board users put out theirs. EDIT: and a side note, is it just me or does it always seem like he has a sticky space bar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Nice read from DT. Hopefully this year's will be better than last years original forecast. Like everyone else, by late December he could tell his forecast was going to be way off. He later put out a revision w/ an updated forecast that was much better. One thing about DT, once he realized it was not going as planned he stated his original was going to bust hard and put out the revision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Haven't read the info yet, but this urgent notice just popped up on my Facebook page... *** ALERT **ALERT *** This is a brand NEW PAGE to wxrisk... MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA.... implications down the road for N America's WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It's a good read. I especially like the possible good rains next week. Positive signs for the winter are a bonus T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Haven't read the info yet, but this urgent notice just popped up on my Facebook page... *** ALERT **ALERT *** This is a brand NEW PAGE to wxrisk... MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA.... implications down the road for N America's WINTER Tracking the predicted snowfall in Eurasia via an October storm on the GFS - that is hardcore.....reminds me of having to turn the laptop sideways to view the latest UKMet images on that chiropractor-visit-inducing French website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Tracking the predicted snowfall in Eurasia via an October storm on the GFS - that is hardcore.....reminds me of having to turn the laptop sideways to view the latest UKMet images on that chiropractor-visit-inducing French website. You mean like they're doing over here? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24854-and-we-begin-part-deux/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 You mean like they're doing over here? http://www.americanw...egin-part-deux/ It's actually deeper than that. DT is tracking a low on the GFS that is expected to lay down snowcover next week across Eurasia - http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 For those who haven't read it, here is DT's preliminary winter outlook. It's a really good read. link Why does he bother to include the Farmer's Almanac predictions for winter? Does anyone who is serious about weather even give the Farmer's Almanac the time of day? You might as well compare your winter forecast to a horoscope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Why does he bother to include the Farmer's Almanac predictions for winter? Does anyone who is serious about weather even give the Farmer's Almanac the time of day? You might as well compare your winter forecast to a horoscope. He's probably trying to find as many outlooks as possible that he can beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 He's probably trying to find as many outlooks as possible that he can beat Actually the Farmer’s Almanac does use climatologist for their overall forecast. They tend to really focus on solar activity. It's just when they state day to day forecast (months in advance) that we can't take seriously. But I think they continue to do this because of tradition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Haven't read the info yet, but this urgent notice just popped up on my Facebook page... *** ALERT **ALERT *** This is a brand NEW PAGE to wxrisk... MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA.... implications down the road for N America's WINTER lol gotta love the "alerts" especially last winter from Euro to GFS it was hilarious to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Actually the Farmer’s Almanac does use climatologist for their overall forecast. They tend to really focus on solar activity. It's just when they state day to day forecast (months in advance) that we can't take seriously. But I think they continue to do this because of tradition. Wich farmers almanac are you referring to? The "Farmers almanac"? Or the "Old Farmers Almanac"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilgore Trout Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Wich farmers almanac are you referring to? The "Farmers almanac"? Or the "Old Farmers Almanac"? I had no idea there was a distinction. After reading this I happened upon the "Farmers almanac" winter prediction for 2012. The second comment on the site is the following: "Planning a wedding on January 7, 2012 in the Philadelphia area. What is the forecast?" Farmers Almanac 2012 Winter Prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Wich farmers almanac are you referring to? The "Farmers almanac"? Or the "Old Farmers Almanac"? The Old Farmers Almanac. You can buy it at Lowes. I actually like reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Decent gains in snowcover from yesterday to today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Good read that was posted on the main page - http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Good read that was posted on the main page - http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/420 Seems pretty reasonable given climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Good read that was posted on the main page - http://www.lightinth...om/archives/420 that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it. Robert, When are you going to post your winter outlook? I hope it has more encouraging things than I've seen so far for the southeast! What outlooks I've read so far looks dismal at best for winter weather lovers. Cold November, But even cold in nov don't yield much of a chance of snow here. Cold December yes we can get some good snow/Ice events that month, But then it's over from what most are saying???? FWIW---- DT, Is the only one throwing the southeast a bone so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it. I was just getting ready to reply in his post about his SE warmth outlook. He posted analogues of which showed basically normal to slightly below in the SE with above to the west. I was going to ask him why he extended the warmth further east and north than what his analogues were showing; what was his reasoning that he thought that would be the case. It comes across as though he, as many others do, expect the blocking to not be as strong as last winter and thus the more warmth. My curiosity is, would not a weaker Nina than last winter negate the difference in the NAO, thus a similar outcome to last winter would be more than likely realized.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I was just getting ready to reply in his post about his SE warmth outlook. He posted analogues of which showed basically normal to slightly below in the SE with above to the west. I was going to ask him why he extended the warmth further east and north than what his analogues were showing; what was his reasoning that he thought that would be the case. It comes across as though he, as many others do, expect the blocking to not be as strong as last winter and thus the more warmth. My curiosity is, would not a weaker Nina than last winter negate the difference in the NAO, thus a similar outcome to last winter would be more than likely realized.? I like DT's forecast and am in pretty good agreement. From what I recall though, his neg. NAO periods, which he and I both are relying on, don't add up on his map exactly, but its not far off. If we get the neg. NAO thats west based , and the trends are looking that way, then we'll have another below normal temp. Winter in the Southeast in General, centered on the Apps. and mostly east of the Miss. River. Its a trade off though, since an enhanced jetstream this season probably will produce more rain events than last year's did, more precip overall..but for some, that will equate to a lot more snow....esp on the Tenn side and the southern App mountains themselves, imo. There's never any guarantees though regarding the state of NAO, but I'm pretty sure that we'll deal with a mostly negative one at times, and if you look back at past winter events in the Southeast, almost always on the big scale picture, you need to have that. If not, you're relying on luck and timing with a split-flow, something that is rare in a Nina. After last year, we saw that Nina's with blocking can and do produce the goods in the Southeast. Some areas though, like northwest NC and western and northern VA can miss out if the flow is too supressed. I've taken my best educated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 After seeing the snowcover and other trends, it looks like we'll finally return to warm and dry after the past three decent winters. It was good while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 After seeing the snowcover and other trends, it looks like we'll finally return to warm and dry after the past three decent winters. It was good while it lasted. [/quo Seems like it would be the opposite; what trends have you seen that would lead you to that conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 After seeing the snowcover and other trends, it looks like we'll finally return to warm and dry after the past three decent winters. It was good while it lasted. Well, at least some things are always the same. I see you haven't changed a bit.............Did you even bother to read Foothill's winter outlook or have you already cancelled winter for the Southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Well, at least some things are always the same. I see you haven't changed a bit.............Did you even bother to read Foothill's winter outlook or have you already cancelled winter for the Southeast? Foothills is a snow weenie and his forecasts are always biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Foothills is a snow weenie and his forecasts are always biased. I'm ambivalent to snow now...don't care much for it really. I like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Foothills is a snow weenie and his forecasts are always biased. No, he just sees it like he sees it and is not warm biased as many forecasters are for the SE. IF you'll notice when enso is either neutral or in a nina state, most call for mild in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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