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Winter 2011-2012


triadwx

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Right or wrong, got to hand it to him for being thorough. That's an interesting angle on the NHemisphere/Eurasia snowcover in the fall....currently 7th highest since 1965

I really doubt that number at this point, snow cover is below normal right now and well below the past two years at this point.

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It isn't about now. The correlation comes in when you look at avg. snowcover for October at the end of the month.

I'm just calling it like I see it. Snowcover has been below average for most, if not all of the month which will impact the average snowfall for October. Things could change in a hurry, everyone would love to see the amounts be higher at this point. I know very little about the correlation but this link covers the changing snowcover very well. Here is to hoping the snowcover takes off.

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Enjoyed DT's write up and actually learned a few things...I've never taken a single meteorology class, so his 60+ powerpoint really taught me a few things about what to concider when doing a winter forecast. I'll agree that his is the most "positive" for us, but I'll take it! Can't wait to see some of our board users put out theirs.:snowman::thumbsup:

EDIT: and a side note, is it just me or does it always seem like he has a sticky space bar?

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Nice read from DT. Hopefully this year's will be better than last years original forecast. Like everyone else, by late December he could tell his forecast was going to be way off. He later put out a revision w/ an updated forecast that was much better. One thing about DT, once he realized it was not going as planned he stated his original was going to bust hard and put out the revision.

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Haven't read the info yet, but this urgent notice just popped up on my Facebook page... :D

*** ALERT **ALERT *** This is a brand NEW PAGE to wxrisk... MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA.... implications down the road for N America's WINTER

Tracking the predicted snowfall in Eurasia via an October storm on the GFS - that is hardcore.....reminds me of having to turn the laptop sideways to view the latest UKMet images on that chiropractor-visit-inducing French website.

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Tracking the predicted snowfall in Eurasia via an October storm on the GFS - that is hardcore.....reminds me of having to turn the laptop sideways to view the latest UKMet images on that chiropractor-visit-inducing French website.

You mean like they're doing over here? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24854-and-we-begin-part-deux/

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For those who haven't read it, here is DT's preliminary winter outlook. It's a really good read.

link

Why does he bother to include the Farmer's Almanac predictions for winter? Does anyone who is serious about weather even give the Farmer's Almanac the time of day? You might as well compare your winter forecast to a horoscope.

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He's probably trying to find as many outlooks as possible that he can beat

Actually the Farmer’s Almanac does use climatologist for their overall forecast. They tend to really focus on solar activity. It's just when they state day to day forecast (months in advance) that we can't take seriously. But I think they continue to do this because of tradition.

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Haven't read the info yet, but this urgent notice just popped up on my Facebook page... :D

*** ALERT **ALERT *** This is a brand NEW PAGE to wxrisk... MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN SIBERIA.... implications down the road for N America's WINTER

lol gotta love the "alerts" especially last winter from Euro to GFS it was hilarious to watch.

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Actually the Farmer’s Almanac does use climatologist for their overall forecast. They tend to really focus on solar activity. It's just when they state day to day forecast (months in advance) that we can't take seriously. But I think they continue to do this because of tradition.

Wich farmers almanac are you referring to?

The "Farmers almanac"?

Or the "Old Farmers Almanac"?

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Wich farmers almanac are you referring to?

The "Farmers almanac"?

Or the "Old Farmers Almanac"?

I had no idea there was a distinction. After reading this I happened upon the "Farmers almanac" winter prediction for 2012. The second comment on the site is the following:

"Planning a wedding on January 7, 2012 in the Philadelphia area. What is the forecast?"

Farmers Almanac 2012 Winter Prediction

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Good read that was posted on the main page - http://www.lightinth...om/archives/420

that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it.

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that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it.

Robert, When are you going to post your winter outlook? I hope it has more encouraging things than I've seen so far for the southeast! :( What outlooks I've read so far looks dismal at best for winter weather lovers. Cold November, But even cold in nov don't yield much of a chance of snow here. Cold December yes we can get some good snow/Ice events that month, But then it's over from what most are saying???? :axe:

FWIW---- DT, Is the only one throwing the southeast a bone so far....

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that was an excellent article linking geomagnetism and how the heights respond. The whole article is pretty in depth and he used good reasoning, but a few things didnt' make sense. For example, with his line of reasoning, and similar to last year, going for warm in Ala, Ga and SC. Blocking, as frequent as he expects, would give what happened last Winter, and that is a well below temp in the Southeast, with possibly a quick linear bisecting just west of the Miss. River. Also, I don't see much luck in breaking down monthlies, and surely not dailies and weeklies as for when the cold waves and thaws occur. But again, the first part of the article had excellent science to it.

I was just getting ready to reply in his post about his SE warmth outlook. He posted analogues of which showed basically normal to slightly below in the SE with above to the west. I was going to ask him why he extended the warmth further east and north than what his analogues were showing; what was his reasoning that he thought that would be the case.

It comes across as though he, as many others do, expect the blocking to not be as strong as last winter and thus the more warmth. My curiosity is, would not a weaker Nina than last winter negate the difference in the NAO, thus a similar outcome to last winter would be more than likely realized.?

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I was just getting ready to reply in his post about his SE warmth outlook. He posted analogues of which showed basically normal to slightly below in the SE with above to the west. I was going to ask him why he extended the warmth further east and north than what his analogues were showing; what was his reasoning that he thought that would be the case.

It comes across as though he, as many others do, expect the blocking to not be as strong as last winter and thus the more warmth. My curiosity is, would not a weaker Nina than last winter negate the difference in the NAO, thus a similar outcome to last winter would be more than likely realized.?

I like DT's forecast and am in pretty good agreement. From what I recall though, his neg. NAO periods, which he and I both are relying on, don't add up on his map exactly, but its not far off. If we get the neg. NAO thats west based , and the trends are looking that way, then we'll have another below normal temp. Winter in the Southeast in General, centered on the Apps. and mostly east of the Miss. River. Its a trade off though, since an enhanced jetstream this season probably will produce more rain events than last year's did, more precip overall..but for some, that will equate to a lot more snow....esp on the Tenn side and the southern App mountains themselves, imo. There's never any guarantees though regarding the state of NAO, but I'm pretty sure that we'll deal with a mostly negative one at times, and if you look back at past winter events in the Southeast, almost always on the big scale picture, you need to have that. If not, you're relying on luck and timing with a split-flow, something that is rare in a Nina. After last year, we saw that Nina's with blocking can and do produce the goods in the Southeast. Some areas though, like northwest NC and western and northern VA can miss out if the flow is too supressed. I've taken my best educated guess.

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After seeing the snowcover and other trends, it looks like we'll finally return to warm and dry after the past three decent winters. It was good while it lasted.

Well, at least some things are always the same. I see you haven't changed a bit.............Did you even bother to read Foothill's winter outlook or have you already cancelled winter for the Southeast?

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Foothills is a snow weenie and his forecasts are always biased.

No, he just sees it like he sees it and is not warm biased as many forecasters are for the SE. IF you'll notice when enso is either neutral or in a nina state, most call for mild in the SE.

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