Winter 2011-2012

[okie333]

Take Accuwx's forecast, move it 200 miles south, and you have my general thoughts.

[LithiaWx]

The last three winters have all seen an official (KATL) major (3.5"+) snow event. The last time there were three winters in a row with a major S/IP was all the way back during the period 1892-3 through 1894-5! However, those three winters actually saw FOUR major S/IP's! So, from that standpoint, that period was even better.

Of course, having just had three winters in a row with a major and there having not been four in a row since at least the late 1870's does not mean we can't finally get a fourth one in a row with the upcoming winter based on the idea of independence of the chance for a major with regard to prior winters.

Hopefully, we're moving into a period of climate change, a COOLING change perhaps due to the less active sun (indicated by fewer sunspots). If so, it is reasonable to hope for more frequent winters like we've just had.

As always your posts are fantastic! Yes, I'm definitely in the camp of less than optimistic for cold and snow in the deep south this year. I think when you add everything up the most likely outcome is what I "forecast" . If you notice I used the words most likely, I may not have articulated this point very well recently. I think that this winter is not as easy to call a typical La Nina would be. I think with uncertainty on the lag of solar activity causation to temperate anomalies is one factor that may end up surprising us this year again in the south. Another factor that could be at play is what if Greenland blocking (-NAO's) are going to be more the normal than exception for a few more years or longer. The -NAO blocking could be linked to less arctic sea ice but that is an unproven theory floating around but there could be any number of unknown reasons why we are seeing more blocking in recent years. Lastly even if we do get above average temps and below average precipitation for the season we may luck out with perfect timing on a storm coinciding with a good cold shot. In general I think typical La Nina climo will be the norm this winter is about 65-70%. I put the other 30-35% on a snowier and colder than average winter for the reasons I listed above. My forecast earlier in this thread was based on the thinking of what the most likely outcome imo would be. We most certainly could have an amazing winter this year once again but I think it is less likely than a warmer/drier winter.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Yeah, this is just your average Nina forecast........any monkey can do that. The real challenge comes with forecasting the NAO / AO and where the storm track will set up. I feel sure that this forecast will change radically come November.

[jburns]

Accuweather is like all other nationwide forecasters, they tend to get the overall patterns right but do not account for local variants; except for their own back yard. This kind of setup (possible predominant pattern) screams CAD events. Lots of cold air to the north with overrunning precipitation. Now I do think we will have to worry about storm tracks that run up the Appalachians, then jump over to the coast around DC. These cases would look like the maps they’ve created; but my thinking is for at least the equal chances of high pressure locking to the north (CAD).

CAD

[dsaur]

The last three winters have all seen an official (KATL) major (3.5"+) snow event. The last time there were three winters in a row with a major S/IP was all the way back during the period 1892-3 through 1894-5! However, those three winters actually saw FOUR major S/IP's! So, from that standpoint, that period was even better.

Of course, having just had three winters in a row with a major and there having not been four in a row since at least the late 1870's does not mean we can't finally get a fourth one in a row with the upcoming winter based on the idea of independence of the chance for a major with regard to prior winters.

Hopefully, we're moving into a period of climate change, a COOLING change perhaps due to the less active sun (indicated by fewer sunspots). If so, it is reasonable to hope for more frequent winters like we've just had.

As I'm sure you recall, lol, my criteria are less stringent than yours If I get enough sticking something frozen this winter, the fifth in a row, I'm in full ice age mode, lol. That said, as you intimated last year, 4 out of 6 might even be indicitive. But I'm all in for more this year, the lag in effects due to minimal sun spots should be starting to hit, in some way, and I'm ready

I've read and heard some very interesting things lately having to do with a rising sea level, and the pressure that puts on the ring of fire. A possible self regulating aspect to the system? Ice sheets melt, pressure mounts, volcanoes spew, gasses and particulates cause cooling, ice sheets reform, pressure eases, vulcanism relaxes, atmosphere warms. Ad infinitum, or until the monkey wrench.

I've been watching Katla since early summer...looking for any help I can get, lol. But that probably wouldn't help with cooling until next winter, so this winter I'm pulling for well positioned highs, cads, and gulf lows to close the deal. T

[dsaur]

That sounds like what happened here. On Wednesday the 16th, we started off as snow, ended up with about 1", then changed over to rain in the evening. On Saturday the 19th, we had very heavy snow that morning. Ended up with 2" before it tapered off early in the afternoon.

In the Dunwoody area, I got ~1" from the first one and ~2" from the second one just a few days later giving us a total of ~3", a pretty good winter for snow (I'll call it near to slightly above average for Dunwoody) and likely a good bit above the median. For snowfall, I obviously would be quite satisfied with that much in most winters based on climo.

That was my first year following model madness on American, and began my personal Count Down To the Ice Age It wasn't so much the depth or impact, but the fact it started a now 4 year run, including last years snow on Christmas mega ice breaker, and two less than usual ULL's. I've been splitting wood all summer, I have cords and cords stacked up and ready. Hit me Old Man Winter, I'm ready like the busy ants ....unlike my grass hopper neighbors, who think I'm crazy. I'm looking for my 6 inch sleet storm come Jan. or Feb. Tony

[NYsnowlover]

Who are you referring to? The writer of the forecast is Heather Buchman. Or maybe your making a joke and it's too early for me to pick up

It's the guy who replaced Joe bastardi.

[NEGa]

Actually, many parts of ATL metro had one during 12/14-15/2005. Regardless, it has still been six winters since the last one, which does mean ATL is slightly "overdue". My stats covering the years since ~1880 suggest about one every 4.5 years on average. Of course, being overdue is pretty meaningless as far as chances for any upcoming winter are concerned. (In a similar vein, ATL is overdue to not have a major snow but that obviously doesn't mean they can't have one this winter.) I prefer to consider things like ENSO. I'm currently expecting a weak La Nina (three month region 3.4 anomaly peak of -0.5 to -1.0) this fall/winter. For ATL, 3 of the last 17 weak La Nina's had a major ZR or about 1 in 6. So, I'd call the chances this winter of a major ZR to be slightly below the longterm average of 1 in 4.5. Of course, that's not even considering the chance for lighter ZR events.

Dec 05 was the last ice storm here. Very odd to go so long without one (although I am not complaining. We didn't get cads and ice but the last two winters have given us a ton of snow and cold )

[SN_Lover]

Any thoughts?

From accuweather:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55834/winter-20112012-ice-severe-sto.asp

[LithiaWx]

Any thoughts?

From accuweather:

http://www.accuweath...-severe-sto.asp

Evidently I'm going to get mostly rain events, a mid season severe weather outbreak and the best chance for ice and snow..... Technically I'm in the mostly rain events but if I drive 20 minutes north I'll be in the best chance for ice and snow but if I drive 20 minutes west I'll have a mid season severe weather outbreak....

edit : are any of you Georgia folks looking at that severe weather just stops the border? Haven't we seen this before?

[jrips27]

Any thoughts?

From accuweather:

http://www.accuweath...-severe-sto.asp

Just remember...

Accuweather forecast...

Actual DJF average...

[AcworthWx]

Here's another winter forecast that I saw posted on a site I visit. I think he narrows it down abit more than Accuwrong does, but still quite broad overall.

http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast

[NYsnowlover]

Here's another winter forecast that I saw posted on a site I visit. I think he narrows it down abit more than Accuwrong does, but still quite broad overall.

http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast

While it is not perfect, at least it does not contradict itself, and it is also more reasonable, it seems like accuweather is forecasting a moderate to strong la nina.

[nrgjeff]

Here's another winter forecast that I saw posted on a site I visit. I think he narrows it down abit more than Accuwrong does, but still quite broad overall.

http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast

That's a reasonable forecast in line with what I'm thinking in the mid-South. Like the Deep South mild, but question the precip. I have not looked super hard at details out West, but I'd have more precip into the Wasatch. I like things east of the Rockies. Stormy from Kansas and OK to Tenn and NC is similar to last year, but so are many of the atmo indices. If much of it comes as winter precip, with lower water equivalents, below normal precip may repeat as well. I also agree with keeping Texas in the dry warm regime, though I hope I'm wrong about the dry part. Cold Upper Midwest is probably my highest confidence region. Just hope western NC gets enough of snow again. I need my ski fix between trips out West...

[Tyler Penland]

Evidently I'm going to get mostly rain events, a mid season severe weather outbreak and the best chance for ice and snow..... Technically I'm in the mostly rain events but if I drive 20 minutes north I'll be in the best chance for ice and snow but if I drive 20 minutes west I'll have a mid season severe weather outbreak....

edit : are any of you Georgia folks looking at that severe weather just stops the border? Haven't we seen this before?

Apparently I'm gonna get mostly rain but all I gotta do to see snow is run to the other side of the house!

And if it didn't, we wouldn't be in Georgia anymore now would we? lol

[beanskip]

The way this drought is locking in, I'll believe a wet winter when I see it.

[SoCoWx]

The way this drought is locking in, I'll believe a wet winter when I see it.

There's a differene between a snowy winter and a wet winter. Considering 1" of rain equates to 1 foot of snow...down there y'all need very little water to have snow.

But to give you an example, last Winter precipitation here in SE Va was below normal BUT we picked up 22" of snow (most of which came the day after christmas).

[calculus1]

The way this drought is locking in, I'll believe a wet winter when I see it.

I don't really feel as if we've been in a drought at all this summer. It's been quite the wet summer for WNC by my standards. I suppose Shelby has been a little drier according to the Drought Monitor below, but the rest of the state has been at normal or better than normal. Only 15% of the state is at or above D1 level, and virtually nobody is at D2 level. Personally, I've had over 9 inches of rainfall in August and September, and many people across the state have had much more.

Plus, as someone else posted above, all we need is just a little precip and good ratios to get decent snow. 15:1 anyone?! I guess 10:1 is more likely outside the mountainous regions. But, we're in a decent spot in WNC to get snows when those gulf lows round the bend and make their way up to the NE. I like our chances in WNC much better than if we further south. Each winter begins anew! Bring on the snow!!

[AcworthWx]

There's a differene between a snowy winter and a wet winter. Considering 1" of rain equates to 1 foot of snow...down there y'all need very little water to have snow.

But to give you an example, last Winter precipitation here in SE Va was below normal BUT we picked up 22" of snow (most of which came the day after christmas).

Bolded quote is very misleading. It all depends on the ratio, with respect to the RH/Wet Bulb of each individual storm. Here in the SE, we're very LUCKY if we get any better than a 10 to 1 ratio at best. Mid Atlantic does a bit better, and out West does the best(UT,CO,WY,MT).

[BullCityWx]

There's a differene between a snowy winter and a wet winter. Considering 1" of rain equates to 1 foot of snow...down there y'all need very little water to have snow.

But to give you an example, last Winter precipitation here in SE Va was below normal BUT we picked up 22" of snow (most of which came the day after christmas).

I can assure you that you dont do much better than Skip does in the winter. I dont know why you think SE VA does better than alot of the Western Piedmont of the Carolinas. It's marginal at best.

[SoCoWx]

I can assure you that you dont do much better than Skip does in the winter. I dont know why you think SE VA does better than alot of the Western Piedmont of the Carolinas. It's marginal at best.

Well, the problem here is that I never said that. So...

In fact the averages are about the same here as they are there.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

For those who haven't read it, here is DT's preliminary winter outlook. It's a really good read.

link

[BullCityWx]

DT's outlook is the most positive one I've seen out of a pro met. Of course, he does love going against the grain.

[DixieBlizzard]

For those who haven't read it, here is DT's preliminary winter outlook. It's a really good read.

link

Thanks! I forget about DT sometimes since he started posting elsewhere.

[AcworthWx]

That was an Excellent read! Finally a Met that looks at more than just a couple factors to come to a conclusion. Seems to be more in tune to what I think will happen. Start out strong, big January, end slightly mild. Overall a near normal (Temps/precip) Winter. It won't be the huge Winter like the last two, but won't be the "Doom & Gloom" that quite a few are predicting.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That was an Excellent read! Finally a Met that looks at more than just a couple factors to come to a conclusion. Seems to be more in tune to what I think will happen. Start out strong, big January, end slightly mild. Overall a near normal (Temps/precip) Winter. It won't be the huge Winter like the last two, but won't be the "Doom & Gloom" that quite a few are predicting.

All it would take is for a freak storm in the southeast for this winter to be just as huge as the last 2. We could have a very mild and dry winter and have well above average snowfall.

[AcworthWx]

All it would take is for a freak storm in the southeast for this winter to be just as huge as the last 2. We could have a very mild and dry winter and have well above average snowfall.

This unfortunately could happen. As you know, it doesn't take much( >2") for us to be well above normal. We may see some mild spells, just none that are sustained for a long period of time. I think there will only be 1-2 small/medium size events this Winter.

[griteater]

For those who haven't read it, here is DT's preliminary winter outlook. It's a really good read.

link

Right or wrong, got to hand it to him for being thorough. That's an interesting angle on the NHemisphere/Eurasia snowcover in the fall....currently 7th highest since 1965

[dsaur]

Right or wrong, got to hand it to him for being thorough. That's an interesting angle on the NHemisphere/Eurasia snowcover in the fall....currently 7th highest since 1965

Yeah, that sure makes sense.

I liked the correlations between winters where hurricanes curve off, and ones where there are land falling storms. Interesting stuff. T

[beanskip]

Similarly, I never said we wouldn't see a snowy winter, only that I didn't think it would be wet....

Well, the problem here is that I never said that. So...

In fact the averages are about the same here as they are there.