Winter 2011-2012

[dsaur]

Bring the no snow down over Fla. and the red down as far as Macon, and it is more in line with my ideas about this one Have to wait and see if this year brings back the cads..my fondest wish...that, and a sw flow to run up into it. T

[Spidyr2k]

I live in the certainty that any long range winter forecast for the Southeast contains the possibility of surprises we sometimes experience. I firmly believe that some of us will get a decent winter precip event this season. A lot of us may just have to wait for next winter. Or the next one. It's the anticipation of the unknown that makes this subject so intriguing.

[toxictwister00]

If the SE ridge ends up in play a lot this winter like it was in 2007-2008, I can see Accuweather's Winter Forecast not being that far off base, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Personally, I think we might see more ice this winter imby, we haven't had a significant icestorm since January 2005. As much as I hate ice, I think were overdue for a major one here.

[NorthernUpstateSC]

Pretty much on par for what accuweather said last year and we all know what happened. Problem I have with accuweather is that they are usually very biased and put most of their forecasting effort toward to larger populated areas like the northeast back toward chicago. There have been multiple times the last several years during the witner that our area was expecting a major winter storm which could be 2-4 inches of snow and there will be little if any mention of it on their site. I know this amount of snow is a joke to them but, not in this area as we don't have the snow and ice removal equipment they have in the big cities. Our county ran out of salt and sand two days after the snowstorm we had back in january and the roads were miserable for almost a week.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If the SE ridge ends up in play a lot this winter like it was in 2007-2008, I can see Accuweather's Winter Forecast not being that far off base, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Personally, I think we might see more ice this winter imby, we haven't had a significant icestorm since January 2005. As much as I hate ice, I think were overdue for a major one here.

The winter of 2007-2008 we had 2 or 3 different snowstorms in the deep south !! That was a great winter for snow. We even had snow and severe weather the same day. If the SE ridge was so prevalent in that winter then why did we have so much snow ? If this winter is anything like that winter, I say bring it on. Snow, severe weather.... That was one exciting winter.

[BullCityWx]

The winter of 2007-2008 we had 2 or 3 different snowstorms in the deep south !! That was a great winter for snow. We even had snow and severe weather the same day. If the SE ridge was so prevalent in that winter then why did we have so much snow ? If this winter is anything like that winter, I say bring it on. Snow, severe weather.... That was one exciting winter.

Unless you live in a different deep south than I think you do, 07-08 was a dog, part of 4 in a row for the south.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Unless you live in a different deep south than I think you do, 07-08 was a dog, part of 4 in a row for the south.

There were 2 snowstorms in the same week in Mid January in Central and North GA !! It was nothing like the last couple winters but we did end up with 3" that winter, which is above normal in this area. It also broke the streak of 2 snow/iceless winters. After not having seen snow in a few years, it seemed like we had more snow than we actually did. It was just great to see any snow again.

[LithiaWx]

There were 2 snowstorms in the same week in Mid January in Central and North GA !! It was nothing like the last couple winters but we did end up with 3" that winter, which is above normal in this area.

Are you recalling this from memory or do you have some links for us? I remember some really crappy snows that year that did not stick at all.. I may remember one from mid January where we got a sloppy crappy 1" and we may have had an ULL that dropped some snow that did not stick in March of 2008..

edit : does someone have a link to snowfall totals in Georgia listed by year?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Are you recalling this from memory or do you have some links for us? I remember some really crappy snows that year that did not stick at all.. I may remember one from mid January where we got a sloppy crappy 1" and we may have had an ULL that dropped some snow that did not stick in March of 2008..

edit : does someone have a link to snowfall totals in Georgia listed by year?

Atlanta had 1.4" that winter, so pretty close to normal. However areas west and north of Atlanta had significantly more. I don't think Athens got much of anything that winter.

[LithiaWx]

Atlanta had 1.4" that winter, so pretty close to normal. However areas west and north of Atlanta had significantly more. I don't think Athens got much of anything that winter.

links? and Atlanta averages 2.1 inches a year or so....

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html

Where did you get the total 1.4 inches? it sounds right but a link would be wonderful.

[calculus1]

Are you recalling this from memory or do you have some links for us? I remember some really crappy snows that year that did not stick at all.. I may remember one from mid January where we got a sloppy crappy 1" and we may have had an ULL that dropped some snow that did not stick in March of 2008..

edit : does someone have a link to snowfall totals in Georgia listed by year?

Here are the storms that I could find for NC during the 2007-2008 winter. This is it: two low-impact storms. I don't know what happened in GA over those periods, but this is definitely not want I want to see again this winter. (Not that my wanting and wishing have any effect on what will happen!) The last two winters have been much snowier for the Hickory, NC, region: +10 inches both winters. Granted, we all have different measures for what makes a "good" winter, but for WNC, 2007-2008 does not make the cut.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

links? and Atlanta averages 2.1 inches a year or so....

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa...d/snowfall.html

Where did you get the total 1.4 inches? it sounds right but a link would be wonderful.I find it odd you can tell me Atlanta's snowfall total that year down to the tenth of an inch but you "don't think" Athens got any.....

I went to noaa.gov, clicked on past weather information, and looked under January 2008.

[valkhorn]

Here are the storms that I could find for NC during the 2007-2008 winter. This is it: two low-impact storms. I don't know what happened in GA over those periods, but this is definitely not want I want to see again this winter. (Not that my wanting and wishing have any effect on what will happen!) The last two winters have been much snowier for the Hickory, NC, region: +10 inches both winters. Granted, we all have different measures for what makes a "good" winter, but for WNC, 2007-2008 does not make the cut.

I wish the folks in Morristown would do that for east TN, sw VA and the TN/NC border. It's not easy to get maps of significant snowstorms in my neck of the woods.

[valkhorn]

How well did Accuweather do with last winter's forecast?

Not too well for Knoxville. If I recall it had a snowy band over our area and it should have been put about 100 miles south. We got nickle and dimed the whole winter and ended up above average in snowfall.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Are you recalling this from memory or do you have some links for us? I remember some really crappy snows that year that did not stick at all.. I may remember one from mid January where we got a sloppy crappy 1" and we may have had an ULL that dropped some snow that did not stick in March of 2008..

edit : does someone have a link to snowfall totals in Georgia listed by year?

I remember that year as well. In my area we had two storms within the same week. First storm started off as snow, had about 1" possible less, then it changed over to rain and the snow turned to slush. Later that week we had a weekend storm, started as sleet then changed to snow. Don't know how much accumulated, just remember some large flakes and it snowing for quite a few hours. The ULL in March was in 2009 though. That one I still remember around 3" and had heard thundersnow for the first time ever with that system.

Here is what the airport observations were January of 2008.

http://climate.usurf...ucts/output.php

Here you can pick the station closer to your location

http://climate.usurf...ta.php?tab=coop

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I remember that year as well. In my area we had two storms within the same week. First storm started off as snow, had about 1" possible less, then it changed over to rain and the snow turned to slush. Later that week we had a weekend storm, started as sleet then changed to snow. Don't know how much accumulated, just remember some large flakes and it snowing for quite a few hours. The ULL in March was in 2009 though. That one I still remember around 3" and had heard thundersnow for the first time ever with that system.

Here is what the airport observations were January of 2008.

http://climate.usurf...ucts/output.php

Here you can pick the station closer to your location

http://climate.usurf...ta.php?tab=coop

That sounds like what happened here. On Wednesday the 16th, we started off as snow, ended up with about 1", then changed over to rain in the evening. On Saturday the 19th, we had very heavy snow that morning. Ended up with 2" before it tapered off early in the afternoon.

[LithiaWx]

I remember that year as well. In my area we had two storms within the same week. First storm started off as snow, had about 1" possible less, then it changed over to rain and the snow turned to slush. Later that week we had a weekend storm, started as sleet then changed to snow. Don't know how much accumulated, just remember some large flakes and it snowing for quite a few hours. The ULL in March was in 2009 though. That one I still remember around 3" and had heard thundersnow for the first time ever with that system.

Here is what the airport observations were January of 2008.

http://climate.usurf...ucts/output.php

Here you can pick the station closer to your location

http://climate.usurf...ta.php?tab=coop

Awesome! Thanks for the links... Your recollection is the same as mine on that winter. Sure it was better than the years we end up with just flurries or no snow but it was not a terrible or a great winter.... The ULL was march of 2009 then we must have had another one in March 2010. I remember back to back March ULL's that dropped snow around here.. I would take a 07-08 year again but I'd like to set my aim quite a bit higher ....09-10/10-11 or bust... Man the past two years sure have spoiled me....

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Awesome! Thanks for the links... Your recollection is the same as mine on that winter. Sure it was better than the years we end up with just flurries or no snow but it was not a good winter by any stretch.... The ULL was march of 2009 then we must have had another one in March 2010. I remember back to back March ULL's that dropped snow around here.. I would take a 07-08 year again but I'd like to set my aim quite a bit higher ....

Yes, forgot about the March 2010 ULL, and I will rather continue to forget it lol. That was a bust for my area, started as snow ended as rain. Didn't get but a dusting after viewing posts on Eastern the night before saying 3+ inches across Atlanta Metro and thundersnow, and everything lol. FFC even had a winter storm watch for my area out I do believe, they cancelled it over night though.

Lookout did good in that storm...

[toxictwister00]

The winter of 2007-2008 we had 2 or 3 different snowstorms in the deep south !! That was a great winter for snow. We even had snow and severe weather the same day. If the SE ridge was so prevalent in that winter then why did we have so much snow ? If this winter is anything like that winter, I say bring it on. Snow, severe weather.... That was one exciting winter.

That was an average winter, outside of January (16th and 19th) I don't recall Atlanta seeing any measurable snow, February there were some brief snow showers/flurries the day before Valentines Day and I think we had a mix of snow/sleet once in early March 2008, but nothing accumulated. You are right about the severe weather though, there was plenty of that during that winter.

[GaWx]

Atlanta had 1.4" that winter, so pretty close to normal. However areas west and north of Atlanta had significantly more. I don't think Athens got much of anything that winter.

In the Dunwoody area, I got ~1" from the first one and ~2" from the second one just a few days later giving us a total of ~3", a pretty good winter for snow (I'll call it near to slightly above average for Dunwoody) and likely a good bit above the median. For snowfall, I obviously would be quite satisfied with that much in most winters based on climo.

[GaWx]

Awesome! Thanks for the links... Your recollection is the same as mine on that winter. Sure it was better than the years we end up with just flurries or no snow but it was not a terrible or a great winter.... The ULL was march of 2009 then we must have had another one in March 2010. I remember back to back March ULL's that dropped snow around here.. I would take a 07-08 year again but I'd like to set my aim quite a bit higher ....09-10/10-11 or bust... Man the past two years sure have spoiled me....

The last three winters have all seen an official (KATL) major (3.5"+) snow event. The last time there were three winters in a row with a major S/IP was all the way back during the period 1892-3 through 1894-5! However, those three winters actually saw FOUR major S/IP's! So, from that standpoint, that period was even better.

Of course, having just had three winters in a row with a major and there having not been four in a row since at least the late 1870's does not mean we can't finally get a fourth one in a row with the upcoming winter based on the idea of independence of the chance for a major with regard to prior winters.

Hopefully, we're moving into a period of climate change, a COOLING change perhaps due to the less active sun (indicated by fewer sunspots). If so, it is reasonable to hope for more frequent winters like we've just had.

[valkhorn]

The last three winters have all seen an official (KATL) major (3.5"+) snow event. The last time there were three winters in a row with a major S/IP was all the way back during the period 1892-3 through 1894-5! However, those three winters actually saw FOUR major S/IP's! So, from that standpoint, that period was even better.

Hopefully, we're moving into a period of climate change, a COOLING change perhaps due to the less active sun (indicated by fewer sunspots). If so, it is reasonable to hope for more frequent winters liek we've just had.

Unfortunately we're at a low ebb in the solar cycle and temps are still warming. I don't anticipate any global cooling overall for a long time - and certainly not within my lifetime.

[GaWx]

Unfortunately we're at a low ebb in the solar cycle and temps are still warming. I don't anticipate any global cooling overall for a long time - and certainly not within my lifetime.

1) Are we still warming?

2) Even if we are still warming (debatable based on how measured), there supposedly is a multiyear long lag from intercyclical sun activity to Earth's temp.'s.

3) I don't think we've yet reached the low ebb in the solar output from an intercyclical standpoint. I'm guessing that will hit around 2020 and that low activity will remain through ~2030.

[valkhorn]

1) Are we still warming?

2) Even if we are still warming (debatable based on how measured), there supposedly is a multiyear long lag from intercyclical sun activity to Earth's temp.'s.

3) I don't think we've yet reached the low ebb in the solar output from an intercyclical standpoint. I'm guessing that will hit around 2020 and that low activity will remain through ~2030.

It isn't really debatable that we are warming right now. It's about as settled as water being wet. Solar cycles are pretty much consistent, and a 'low ebb' along a 50 year period wouldn't be significantly lower than any other 'ebb'.

This belongs in the climate forum though so if you wish to discuss it there, feel free.

[GaWx]

It isn't really debatable that we are warming right now. It's about as settled as water being wet. Solar cycles are pretty much consistent, and a 'low ebb' along a 50 year period wouldn't be significantly lower than any other 'ebb'.

This belongs in the climate forum though so if you wish to discuss it there, feel free.

You're debating my hope that we're entering a multidecadal cooling period and I don't agree with you about the sun. So, I'm just responding to your disagreement.

1) Regardless of what % of the late 20th century warming was caused by humans (an unknown portion), I think the continued warming is very much debatable. I constantly read plenty of debate about it. An unknown but potentially large portion has been due to natural cycles.

2) Solar cycles consistent? The period 1950-2000 was the most active in several hundred years per the records and easily could have contributed to the warming then. Also, we just had the quietest solar cycle in ~100 years, and I feel there is a decent shot of having the quietest in ~200 years (since the Dalton minimum) with the next cycle. We'll see.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I remain hopeful that colder/snowier winters are going to dominate through ~2030 based largely on the quieter sun. That's why I mentioned it. We'll see.

[WilkesboroDude]

2008 and 2009...double weighted.

Was that the severe winter season for western North Carolina?

Or do I have my time period wrong?

Because Accuweather just gave us the screw pretty much...

[BullCityWx]

2008 and 2009...double weighted.

Was that the severe winter season for western North Carolina?

Or do I have my time period wrong?

Because Accuweather just gave us the screw pretty much...

I'm pretty sure 08/09 was a niño

[GaWx]

If the SE ridge ends up in play a lot this winter like it was in 2007-2008, I can see Accuweather's Winter Forecast not being that far off base, but I'm cautiously optimistic about this winter. Personally, I think we might see more ice this winter imby, we haven't had a significant icestorm since January 2005. As much as I hate ice, I think were overdue for a major one here.

Actually, many parts of ATL metro had one during 12/14-15/2005. Regardless, it has still been six winters since the last one, which does mean ATL is slightly "overdue". My stats covering the years since ~1880 suggest about one every 4.5 years on average. Of course, being overdue is pretty meaningless as far as chances for any upcoming winter are concerned. (In a similar vein, ATL is overdue to not have a major snow but that obviously doesn't mean they can't have one this winter.) I prefer to consider things like ENSO. I'm currently expecting a weak La Nina (three month region 3.4 anomaly peak of -0.5 to -1.0) this fall/winter. For ATL, 3 of the last 17 weak La Nina's had a major ZR or about 1 in 6. So, I'd call the chances this winter of a major ZR to be slightly below the longterm average of 1 in 4.5. Of course, that's not even considering the chance for lighter ZR events.

[WilkesboroDude]

I'm pretty sure 08/09 was a niño

i die

[griteater]

Only rationale given in Accu Weather's Outlook is La Nina...and they say, "La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast." No mention of -AO, -NAO from last winter. That's not good enough for me.