HKY_WX Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Excellent post. Last winter was a great example of everyone getting burned. Almost everyone was forecasting a torch and little snow/cold. It only takes one storm here in the SE to make it a great winter. Not to toot my own horn, but I didn't get burned last year. I had the east in DJF average temps for the entire winter. The sequence for d-j-f wasn't perfect, but overall i leaned towards the NAO steering the pattern with the analogs i used.The forecast is still on my examiner page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Not to toot my own horn, but I didn't get burned last year. I had the east in DJF average temps for the entire winter. The sequence for d-j-f wasn't perfect, but overall i leaned towards the NAO steering the pattern with the analogs i used.The forecast is still on my examiner page. TOOT, TOOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Throwing this one in the hopper - winter outlook from commoditywx.com - http://www.commodity...eport082211.pdf Good read. Thought it was interesting in the relationship solar cycles impact blocking. Not sure how strong a conclusion can be drawn from the direct effects solar cycles have on blocking. The only sample period we have to go off of other than the current one we are in, is the 50's-70's time frame. IMO blocking signal trumps all others as the precusor to our winter seasonal forecast. Problem is it's the toughest to try an predict out past 5-10 days. Of course if solar cycles are the main driving force behind blocking patterns being established, then you have a leg to stand on because solar cycles can be predictable with higher skill level from what I read from others in the know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 TOOT, TOOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 what scares me the most about this winter has nothing to do with seasonal or long range forecasts, but the fact that that last two winters were amazing with more snow and cold than many of us could have imagined....and back to back winters at that. statistically i am resigned that it woud take nothing less than a math miracle for us to have three back to back awesome winters here in the se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 what scares me the most about this winter has nothing to do with seasonal or long range forecasts, but the fact that that last two winters were amazing with more snow and cold than many of us could have imagined....and back to back winters at that. statistically i am resigned that it woud take nothing less than a math miracle for us to have three back to back awesome winters here in the se Come on, man! We've already beat that argument into the ground. Just because the last two winters were "good," per se, has no influence on whether the next winter is "good" or "bad." Go back several pages in this thread and you will find a lively debate concerning the mathematics involved. I believe MarrietaWx, myself, and Virginia Hippie were all involved to some degree, as well as others. There are plenty of reasons for why you might believe this winter will be "bad" for snowlovers, but the fact that the last two winters were "good" is not an acceptable, defensible reason for why this year will be "bad." Edit: Fallslake was actually the first to debunk this argument. Go back to page 11 and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 If I lived in the SE I wouldn't be too worried either way. There is no reason to think that the upcoming winter will be that much different than last winter. The EC cashed in on the persistant -AO/-NAO last year. My area was in a snow hole to the S & N but Dec - mid Feb was pretty cold. I did a lot of digging into Ninas, second year Ninas, AO/NAO, & PDO indexes the last month or so. The datasets aren't big enough to draw any confident conclusions but there are some encouraging signs nonetheless. You can check the winter thread in the MA forum for my composite maps. There is a clear signal that Ninas combined with a persistant -AO/-NAO behave way differently than not having the -AO/-NAO along the EC. I'm just a weenie so I can't really grasp Hadley cell, MJO, EPO stuff but if we can get some blocking and have the trough axis to set up favorably then we can all have some fun this winter instead of the more typical trough in the west and ridge in the east scenario that Ninas more often bring to the table. If my analog years have any backbone to them then we could easily see below normal temps in Dec-Feb. There is talk about a slight increase in STJ activity this year too. Maybe we get lucky and get one full phaser this winter with a big block over Greenland. Who knows right? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 Come on, man! We've already beat that argument into the ground. Just because the last two winters were "good," per se, has no influence on whether the next winter is "good" or "bad." Go back several pages in this thread and you will find a lively debate concerning the mathematics involved. I believe MarrietaWx, myself, and Virginia Hippie were all involved to some degree, as well as others. There are plenty of reasons for why you might believe this winter will be "bad" for snowlovers, but the fact that the last two winters were "good" is not an acceptable, defensible reason for why this year will be "bad." Edit: Fallslake was actually the first to debunk this argument. Go back to page 11 and check it out. He is right though... Statistically it is highly improbable that we end up with a third great winter. But there is no such thing as overdue in weather..... So I agree with both of you guys.... Before I get jumped on I'm speaking from a strictly statistical perspective which is not all you can look at with the weather of course, just playing devils advocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 He is right though... Statistically it is highly improbable that we end up with a third great winter. But there is no such thing as overdue in weather..... So I agree with both of you guys.... Before I get jumped on I'm speaking from a strictly statistical perspective which is not all you can look at with the weather of course, just playing devils advocate. It is statistically *improbable* but not impossible. There have been decades in recent history, the 60's for one that were fairly snowy If I recall the data correctly. And I read a brief summary where someone was discussing JB's new outlook (even though no one really buys into his forecast). It didn't give specifics on particular regions, however..places like here that are in between what is often accepted as the Mid-Atl and SE look good this winter for snow according to him. Of course, many would argue he forecast that every Winter (which actually isnt true). Interesting, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 I'm assuming you mean Joe Bastardi. And if so, he mustve flip-flopped pretty fast. Only a few days ago on his facebook page he was saying all of these cold forecast fit his preliminary he released back at the beginning of Summer. And he showed the map, and that map called for near normal to ever so slightly below normal temps in the south, especially further east around GA and SC on northward. Who else would you think of? Hopefully you don't think a 110-lb Canadian boy made a winter forecast... though honestly there's another member here who's an acquaintance of mine who has about the same body frame as the "other JB"... not saying who, but he's done some pretty amazing stuff weatherwise... also a lot of my winter forecasting info has come from him (my friend, not the "other JB" lol) as well. Not sure about his age though... he looks about 12-13 but after seeing pics of his lookalikes (who all are about 15-18 but look very young for their ages) he might actually be 17... would definitely make more sense given his intelligence and accomplishments. what scares me the most about this winter has nothing to do with seasonal or long range forecasts, but the fact that that last two winters were amazing with more snow and cold than many of us could have imagined....and back to back winters at that. statistically i am resigned that it woud take nothing less than a math miracle for us to have three back to back awesome winters here in the se Flip a coin until you get two heads. Flip again and record the result. Keep repeating. You will notice about 50/50 odds even though the last two were heads. Same is true in the atmosphere... except in the atmosphere the "coin" is oftentimes loaded depending on the multidecadal cycles. A loaded coin is MORE likely to come up with the same result many times in a row, not less. In addition, the atmosphere has a mild persistence even when it's not loaded... also makes it more likely to have the same result many years in a row... for some reason 3 in a row is a common occurrence, and the strongest one is almost always the last of the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe75 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Just found this on one of the Ag. sites I follow. Please don't bash me I'm just posting this as to weather in general.http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/expect-a-cold-one-this-winter_2-ar19499 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Just found this on one of the Ag. sites I follow. Please don't bash me I'm just posting this as to weather in general.http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/expect-a-cold-one-this-winter_2-ar19499 I don’t know if I should laugh or cry… "....Taylor says La Nina's sticking around because of a factor called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). For the months of January, February and March, the NAO -- a weather phenomenon that causes the gulf stream to "wander around the Atlantic [Ocean]," Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don’t know if I should laugh or cry… "....Taylor says La Nina's sticking around because of a factor called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). For the months of January, February and March, the NAO -- a weather phenomenon that causes the gulf stream to "wander around the Atlantic [Ocean]," That is an actual meteorologist who said that according to the article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe75 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't know much about weather. I do enjoy reading the form and do get some heads up insight info from here. I'm a career firefighter/ fulltime farmer. I use the weather info to determine what and when I plant. Thanks for all the good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 That is an actual meteorologist who said that according to the article. That is bizarre a met would say that high height anomalies over the north Atlantic are affecting ocean currents in the tropical Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 That is an actual meteorologist who said that according to the article. Not trying to be apologetic for this guy, but it is possible, I guess, that the reporter misstated what he said about the NAO. Often, reporters have trouble stating what neighborhood they're actually in when they're reporting, so it wouldn't surprise me if the writer botched the whole thing, given the complexity of ocean current/atmospheric relationships. On the other hand, the met guy might just be that dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't know much about weather. I do enjoy reading the form and do get some heads up insight info from here. I'm a career firefighter/ fulltime farmer. I use the weather info to determine what and when I plant. Thanks for all the good info. I just got to say Praise God for You being a farmer sir...and being a firefighter also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I just got to say Praise God for You being a farmer sir...and being a firefighter also. My father in law is a full time farmer as well. He listens to what I tell him based on the forum. Helps to know when to get things done in the fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Accuweather just released their Winter Forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Nope, don't like that one. They need to try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think they hate North Carolina..... they seem to make it out to be like you will be lucky if it gets cold sorry... which reminds me of their forecast last year...... i hope their wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Nope, don't like that one. They need to try again. This new guy has made three busted forecasts. He sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 This new guy has made three busted forecasts. He sucks. Who are you referring to? The writer of the forecast is Heather Buchman. Or maybe your making a joke and it's too early for me to pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think they hate North Carolina..... they seem to make it out to be like you will be lucky if it gets cold sorry... which reminds me of their forecast last year...... i hope their wrong Accuweather is like all other nationwide forecasters, they tend to get the overall patterns right but do not account for local variants; except for their own back yard. This kind of setup (possible predominant pattern) screams CAD events. Lots of cold air to the north with overrunning precipitation. Now I do think we will have to worry about storm tracks that run up the Appalachians, then jump over to the coast around DC. These cases would look like the maps they’ve created; but my thinking is for at least the equal chances of high pressure locking to the north (CAD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Accuweather just released their Winter Forecast. I find it hard to believe that red area will get more ice than snow. Even if it gets TWO major ice storms, it will be less than they typically get in terms of snow every winter. For that kind of pattern, there has to be a huge amount of overrunning precip, and to see that for a long stretch in the winter would be quite rare and quite improbable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 If it's going to be a warm winter in the Southeast then I hope it's extra, extra warm. Those of us (and there are plenty) who moved to the Southeast from more northern states didn't do so because we wanted more cold. The best way to see winter is to ride Amtrak. Kick back and watch the scenery change as you head north. Visit winter for a short while then head back south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Why was my post in here removed? I simply stated that they are referring to Paul Pastelok and that he isn't a very good LR forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 As much as I dislike Accuweather's forecast for my area, I can't just summarily dismiss it. It very easily could happen and I seriously doubt it was just willy nilly thrown together. I'm confident the mets who added input thought about it carefully and made a good effort to get the forecast right. How many mets want to be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 How well did Accuweather do with last winter's forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 I think people need to remember just because you want a forecast to be wrong isn't an reason to discredit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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