Winter 2011-2012

[FallsLake]

I would be all for a freeze. Climatologically speaking, you can count the number of days on one hand with minimum temperatures at or below 32 in October here in the Triad.

Don't need a freeze for a frost. If we can get clear calm wind nights (radiational cooling) and then temps that drop into the mid-upper 30s, we can get frost. Maybe a lot of us will see that this weekend. Most forecast only state 40s right now but that is typical for this time range.

[triadwx]

Don't need a freeze for a frost. If we can get clear calm wind nights (radiational cooling) and then temps that drop into the mid-upper 30s, we can get frost. Maybe a lot of us will see that this weekend. Most forecast only state 40s right now but that is typical for this time range.

Yeah, obviously. A lot of the upper piedmont will have a good chance at their first frost either Sunday or Monday morning. I'm forecasted to be in the lower 40's right now.

[NCSNOW]

Time to start trying to get a feel, (if possible) what the NAO may be tipping it's hand toward doing this winter. Be nice if we saw a repeat from 2 years ago when it tanked for most of D/J/F. Looks like from the euro and espeacilly GFS October will start off in the tank. IMO with a weak La Nina, then the NAO being negative or neutral should allow the northern stream hold the trump card this winter. This would equal colder, but below normal precip most likely. I'll take it, since it's always the temps way more so than precip that screws with our region in regards to frozen precip.

[LithiaWx]

No matter which graph you look at La Nina is going to peak right around the peak of winter this year, December-February peak in negative SST anomalies. Some of the projections are coming in quite strong. I think we are likely headed into a moderate La Nina, a weak or Neutral La Nina is looking less and less likely now and even a strong La Nina seems more likely than a neutral one. Moderate or Weak La Nina is expected by me, I think we end up with a fairly healthy moderate La Nina peaking at the absolute worst time for us in the southeast for those wanting snow and cold.

Solar activity continues to be much stronger than it has in recent years. I hope the NAO cooperates this year or we are in for a not so great winter if you like snow and cold in the southeast. With a limited Subtropical jet this year I just don't see enough precipitation to get us to normal. I'm not calling for a torch but I do think we end up with generally above average temps and below average precipitation this winter season. I do think that this will translate into below average snowfall for most of us in the southeast. Areas in the mountains and higher elevations will probably have better luck getting to normal or even above normal. For the Atlanta area I'm predicting a trace or so of snow at the most this season, sorry folks but the writing is on the wall this time. I won't go with totals for other areas but in general below normal precip and above normal temps will translate to below normal snowfall totals.

I think La Nina will be a strong force this year and I don't think the NAO is going to be as strong or as negative this year as it was the last two winter seasons. When you add in a Sub Tropical jet that will imo be lackluster you get a bad year for snow in general for the southeast. This does not mean we won't get a nice little storm to pop up and drop a decent amount of snow for many of us but I think the odds of it this year are low.

[jburns]

No matter which graph you look at La Nina is going to peak right around the peak of winter this year, December-February peak in negative SST anomalies. Some of the projections are coming in quite strong. I think we are likely headed into a moderate La Nina, a weak or Neutral La Nina is looking less and less likely now and even a strong La Nina seems more likely than a neutral one. Moderate or Weak La Nina is expected by me, I think we end up with a fairly healthy moderate La Nina peaking at the absolute worst time for us in the southeast for those wanting snow and cold.

Solar activity continues to be much stronger than it has in recent years. I hope the NAO cooperates this year or we are in for a not so great winter if you like snow and cold in the southeast. With a limited Subtropical jet this year I just don't see enough precipitation to get us to normal. I'm not calling for a torch but I do think we end up with generally above average temps and below average precipitation this winter season. I do think that this will translate into below average snowfall for most of us in the southeast. Areas in the mountains and higher elevations will probably have better luck getting to normal or even above normal. For the Atlanta area I'm predicting a trace or so of snow at the most this season, sorry folks but the writing is on the wall this time. I won't go with totals for other areas but in general below normal precip and above normal temps will translate to below normal snowfall totals.

I think La Nina will be a strong force this year and I don't think the NAO is going to be as strong or as negative this year as it was the last two winter seasons. When you add in a Sub Tropical jet that will imo be lackluster you get a bad year for snow in general for the southeast. This does not mean we won't get a nice little storm to pop up and drop a decent amount of snow for many of us but I think the odds of it this year are low.

Nice post but pretty hard for us south-easterners to understand. Since it is a slow period I applied a regional adjustment.

No matter which graph yo' look at La Nina is a-gonna peak right aroun' th' peak of winter this hyar year, December-February peak in negative SST anomalies. Some of th' projeckshuns is a-comin' in quite strong, acco'din' t' th' code o' th' heells! ah reckon we is likely haided into a moderate La Nina, a weak o' Neutral La Nina is lookin' less an' less likely now an' even a strong La Nina seems mo'e likely than a neutral one. Moderate o' Weak La Nina is specked by me, ah reckon we ind up wif a fairly healthy moderate La Nina peakin' at th' absolute wo'st time fo' us in th' southeast fo' them wantin' snow an' cold, cuss it all t' tarnation.

Solar ackivity corntinues t'be much stronger than it has in recent years. ah hope th' NAO cooperates this hyar year o' we is in fo' a not so great winter eff'n yo' like snow an' cold in th' southeast. Wif a limited Subtropical jet this hyar year ah jest doesn't see inough precipitashun t'git us t'no'mal, ah reckon. ah's not callin' fo' a to'ch but ah do reckon we ind up wif junerally above avahage temps an' below avahage precipitashun this hyar winter season, as enny fool kin plainly see. ah do reckon thet this hyar will translate into below avahage snowfall fo' most of us in th' southeast. Areas in th' mountains an' higher elevashuns will probably haf better luck gittin' t'no'mal o' even above no'mal, ah reckon. Fo' th' Atlanta area ah's predickin' a trace o' so of snow at the dawgoned-est this hyar season, so'ry folks but th' writin' is on th' wall this hyar time. ah won't hoof it wif totals fo' other areas but in juneral below no'mal precip an' above no'mal temps will translate t'below no'mal snowfall totals.

ah reckon La Nina will be a strong fo'ce this hyar year an' ah doesn't reckon th' NAO is a-gonna be as strong o' as negative this hyar year as it was th' last two winter seasons. When yo' add in a Sub Tropical jet thet will imo be lacklester yo' git a bad year fo' snow in juneral fo' th' southeast. This hyar does not mean we won't git a nice li'l sto'm t'pop up an' drop a decent amount of snow fo' menny of us but ah reckon th' odds of it this hyar year is low.

[chapelhillwx]

I don't know why you felt compelled to do that, but I can't stop laughing.

[LithiaWx]

I don't know why you felt compelled to do that, but I can't stop laughing.

To add humor to a depressing reality that could easily come true...... The amount of time it must have took him to do that is what makes his post slightly disturbing to me.

[GaWx]

No matter which graph you look at La Nina is going to peak right around the peak of winter this year, December-February peak in negative SST anomalies. Some of the projections are coming in quite strong. I think we are likely headed into a moderate La Nina, a weak or Neutral La Nina is looking less and less likely now and even a strong La Nina seems more likely than a neutral one. Moderate or Weak La Nina is expected by me, I think we end up with a fairly healthy moderate La Nina peaking at the absolute worst time for us in the southeast for those wanting snow and cold.

Solar activity continues to be much stronger than it has in recent years. I hope the NAO cooperates this year or we are in for a not so great winter if you like snow and cold in the southeast. With a limited Subtropical jet this year I just don't see enough precipitation to get us to normal. I'm not calling for a torch but I do think we end up with generally above average temps and below average precipitation this winter season. I do think that this will translate into below average snowfall for most of us in the southeast. Areas in the mountains and higher elevations will probably have better luck getting to normal or even above normal. For the Atlanta area I'm predicting a trace or so of snow at the most this season, sorry folks but the writing is on the wall this time. I won't go with totals for other areas but in general below normal precip and above normal temps will translate to below normal snowfall totals.

I think La Nina will be a strong force this year and I don't think the NAO is going to be as strong or as negative this year as it was the last two winter seasons. When you add in a Sub Tropical jet that will imo be lackluster you get a bad year for snow in general for the southeast. This does not mean we won't get a nice little storm to pop up and drop a decent amount of snow for many of us but I think the odds of it this year are low.

Good post with a well thought-out and nonweenieish forecast. I'm going with a WEAK La Nina (anomaly of -0.5 to -1.0 in Nino region 3.4 3 month averaged cold peak) this fall/winter for the most likely scenario fwiw.

[DixieBlizzard]

To add humor to a depressing reality that could easily come true...... The amount of time it must have took him to do that is what makes his post slightly disturbing to me.

No worries. "jburns" is slightly disturbed from whut ah kin reckon.

Thanks for the write up. Your guess is as good as anyone's, especially at this point.

[WXinCanton]

It is my understanding Solar activity has a supposed 3 to 5 year lag time. Thus we would be right in the thick of the cycle 23/24 solar minimum.

[DaculaWeather]

From Okie's post about the sun: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25638-my-thoughts-about-winter/

Sunspot area, which is what I go by (since it is a more reliable indicator of solar activity than sunspot number and the record goes farther back than 10.7 flux or Ap index), has gone up, but is still well below every cycle (since 1874) except for #14 (1910's... during which there was a pretty epic string of winters if COOP data is to be believed). What interests me more, though, is the 3-5 year lag in the long-term pattern... the magnetism had a step change in October 2005, and it wasn't until spring 2009 that we really started to see the effects on the AO. If this is true, then next winter corresponds to an even lower point in the magnetic field than last winter did, and it corresponds to the very depths of the SSN/10.7 minimum. Right now we are at the top of the 6-7 month pseudocycle that the Sun has experienced lately... I forsee a drop in solar activity starting in October and continuing through at least January, with the sunspot number bottoming out in January or February before rising again. Not quite as well-placed as 2010-2011's drop, but still a pretty good time to have one. Oh, and to anyone using the Holton-Tan relationships, you need to still count this as a solar minimum... it is getting closer to an in-between, but I don't think we will see true "maximum" (by late 20th century standards) conditions for a long time (at least 20 years, possibly much longer).

[tacoman25]

It is my understanding Solar activity has a supposed 3 to 5 year lag time. Thus we would be right in the thick of the cycle 23/24 solar minimum.

I believe it's more of a 1-3 year lag time, depending on who you ask.

EDIT: Not sure where Okie got his 3-5 year number from, other than assuming the last two winters were due to what happened with the ap index in 2005-06. Honestly, I think a lot of it still part speculation at this point.

[HKY_WX]

No matter which graph you look at La Nina is going to peak right around the peak of winter this year, December-February peak in negative SST anomalies. Some of the projections are coming in quite strong. I think we are likely headed into a moderate La Nina, a weak or Neutral La Nina is looking less and less likely now and even a strong La Nina seems more likely than a neutral one. Moderate or Weak La Nina is expected by me, I think we end up with a fairly healthy moderate La Nina peaking at the absolute worst time for us in the southeast for those wanting snow and cold.

Solar activity continues to be much stronger than it has in recent years. I hope the NAO cooperates this year or we are in for a not so great winter if you like snow and cold in the southeast. With a limited Subtropical jet this year I just don't see enough precipitation to get us to normal. I'm not calling for a torch but I do think we end up with generally above average temps and below average precipitation this winter season. I do think that this will translate into below average snowfall for most of us in the southeast. Areas in the mountains and higher elevations will probably have better luck getting to normal or even above normal. For the Atlanta area I'm predicting a trace or so of snow at the most this season, sorry folks but the writing is on the wall this time. I won't go with totals for other areas but in general below normal precip and above normal temps will translate to below normal snowfall totals.

I think La Nina will be a strong force this year and I don't think the NAO is going to be as strong or as negative this year as it was the last two winter seasons. When you add in a Sub Tropical jet that will imo be lackluster you get a bad year for snow in general for the southeast. This does not mean we won't get a nice little storm to pop up and drop a decent amount of snow for many of us but I think the odds of it this year are low.

CFS is usually too extreme from past experience. The blend of dynamical and statistical models tends to fair much better and they don't avg this much below -.5 for DJF. At this point it's hard to say what is right, but i think a weak nina is more probable than a mod' nina.

[DaculaWeather]

I love hearing sound, logical, well thought out reasoning about the upcoming winter. And we'll hear hundreds more variations that are just as good!

That's why I love the weather, there is still not enough known about it to come up with a solid consensus about what's going to happen!

[jburns]

To add humor to a depressing reality that could easily come true...... The amount of time it must have took him to do that is what makes his post slightly disturbing to me.

Fear not I am fine. I cheated.

http://www.rinkworks.com/dialect/

[POWERSTROKE]

FWIW good ole JB not showing too much love for southeast this winter

[nchighcountrywx]

FWIW good ole JB not showing too much love for southeast this winter

Yeaup. We better get our winter in early in November and December this year. He feels that November may be the only month that the mountains can see above average snowfall.

January could be transitional.

What concerns me is February and March better than +4 to +5 above normal giving us early start to a potential blazing hot summer in 2012 that is even worse than the one we just went through.

[BIG FROSTY]

Remember November, it's the only winter you get. Lol

[SoCoWx]

FWIW good ole JB not showing too much love for southeast this winter

I'm assuming you mean Joe Bastardi. And if so, he mustve flip-flopped pretty fast. Only a few days ago on his facebook page he was saying all of these cold forecast fit his preliminary he released back at the beginning of Summer. And he showed the map, and that map called for near normal to ever so slightly below normal temps in the south, especially further east around GA and SC on northward.

[Lookout]

Yeaup. We better get our winter in early in November and December this year. He feels that November may be the only month that the mountains can see above average snowfall.

January could be transitional.

What concerns me is February and March better than +4 to +5 above normal giving us early start to a potential blazing hot summer in 2012 that is even worse than the one we just went through.

No disrespect intended for those who put the time and effort into seasonal forecasts but frankly they aren't worth much. Someone who is incredibly smart and who puts tons of time, effort, and research into it might get close one year then totally blow it the next year and the year after, which tells me if someone gets it right, its mostly just by chance.

Maybe in years where the signals are overwhelming it's somewhat predictable but most of the time you have conflicted signals. IMO, the atmosphere is just too complicated and there is too much chaos. In other words, things on the micro scale that is simply not predictable very far in advance yet has huge implications to the overall weather pattern, possibly for a couple of weeks which of course has large influences on temp/snow/rain etc.

Despite the inaccuracy of these forecasts, people still get caught up in them and take them seriously...or at least somewhat seriously. Personally, I don't give 2 cents worth on them and don't take them seriously at all. Just look at all the negative outlooks we had for last year. Some of them were near record breaking warm IIRC and look how great it turned out to be.

The bottom line is I urge folks not to get too down or depressed about anyone's forecast.

Hopefully I'm not offending those who put so much time and effort into them. One day, maybe, we will actually be able to predict it with more accuracy and it will be because of the efforts of those like on this board who do so much work on it.

[griteater]

Gotta agree with you Lookout on this, although I do enjoy reading the outlooks, and take notice when someone makes insightful points that are proven true.

[packfan98]

I like reading the preliminary outlooks. They normally give us amatuers some points to focus on as the season progresses. I have always liked JB. In fact, he was the first winter weather weenie that I followed and learned quite a bit about patterns. He normally does very well predicting patterns in the 2-4 week timespan when others are only focused on the here and now. He is not always right predicting storms, but it usually is because of timing instead of totally misreading the setup. No time for bashing here. I fall into the hype sometimes but my favorite place for a reality check is here in the SE forum. I can't wait for the Euro play-by-plays!! Bring it on!

[NorthernUpstateSC]

JB had forecast a blowtorch winter last year for the southeastern part of the u.s. and said that if we had a winter it would only occur in the beginning stages of winter in december. Then he started singing a completely different tune in december and then more so in january when the weather stayed cold and the warmth that he forecasted to hit toward the end of december never happened. The switch to winter was turned off for good the middle of february for the most part for our area but, we had a good two months of exciting weather that most said would not happen.

He wasn't the only one forecasting a milder then normal winter and below normal snowfall. I think alot of us had much above normal snowfall for last year, our average annual snowfall is around 6 inches we had close to 12 inches last year. JB also said in one of his special videos back in 2009 that the winter of 2011-2012 would start a 10-15 year period of much colder and colder winters.

Now here we are on the doorsteps of the 2011-2012 winter and he is saying something completely different. I used to love listening to him a few years ago and still like to here his ideas but, I have finally realized after looking back that he was wrong quite a bit and, is paid alot of money to overly dramatize the weather so he and his company make lots of $$$$$$$$$$$$.

[jrips27]

No disrespect intended for those who put the time and effort into seasonal forecasts but frankly they aren't worth much. Someone who is incredibly smart and who puts tons of time, effort, and research into it might get close one year then totally blow it the next year and the year after, which tells me if someone gets it right, its mostly just by chance.

Maybe in years where the signals are overwhelming it's somewhat predictable but most of the time you have conflicted signals. IMO, the atmosphere is just too complicated and there is too much chaos. In other words, things on the micro scale that is simply not predictable very far in advance yet has huge implications to the overall weather pattern, possibly for a couple of weeks which of course has large influences on temp/snow/rain etc.

Despite the inaccuracy of these forecasts, people still get caught up in them and take them seriously...or at least somewhat seriously. Personally, I don't give 2 cents worth on them and don't take them seriously at all. Just look at all the negative outlooks we had for last year. Some of them were near record breaking warm IIRC and look how great it turned out to be.

The bottom line is I urge folks not to get too down or depressed about anyone's forecast.

Hopefully I'm not offending those who put so much time and effort into them. One day, maybe, we will actually be able to predict it with more accuracy and it will be because of the efforts of those like on this board who do so much work on it.

Excellent post. Last winter was a great example of everyone getting burned. Almost everyone was forecasting a torch and little snow/cold. It only takes one storm here in the SE to make it a great winter.

[POWERSTROKE]

No disrespect intended for those who put the time and effort into seasonal forecasts but frankly they aren't worth much. Someone who is incredibly smart and who puts tons of time, effort, and research into it might get close one year then totally blow it the next year and the year after, which tells me if someone gets it right, its mostly just by chance.

Maybe in years where the signals are overwhelming it's somewhat predictable but most of the time you have conflicted signals. IMO, the atmosphere is just too complicated and there is too much chaos. In other words, things on the micro scale that is simply not predictable very far in advance yet has huge implications to the overall weather pattern, possibly for a couple of weeks which of course has large influences on temp/snow/rain etc.

Despite the inaccuracy of these forecasts, people still get caught up in them and take them seriously...or at least somewhat seriously. Personally, I don't give 2 cents worth on them and don't take them seriously at all. Just look at all the negative outlooks we had for last year. Some of them were near record breaking warm IIRC and look how great it turned out to be.

The bottom line is I urge folks not to get too down or depressed about anyone's forecast.

Hopefully I'm not offending those who put so much time and effort into them. One day, maybe, we will actually be able to predict it with more accuracy and it will be because of the efforts of those like on this board who do so much work on it.

I agree totally that is why I said FWIW. I believe we all saw how weather does what it wants last year

[POWERSTROKE]

I'm assuming you mean Joe Bastardi. And if so, he mustve flip-flopped pretty fast. Only a few days ago on his facebook page he was saying all of these cold forecast fit his preliminary he released back at the beginning of Summer. And he showed the map, and that map called for near normal to ever so slightly below normal temps in the south, especially further east around GA and SC on northward.

last year he said starting in 2001 - 2015 the Southeast would see above average snowfall So you never know I was just posting what he said yesterday on his site.

[LithiaWx]

No disrespect intended for those who put the time and effort into seasonal forecasts but frankly they aren't worth much. Someone who is incredibly smart and who puts tons of time, effort, and research into it might get close one year then totally blow it the next year and the year after, which tells me if someone gets it right, its mostly just by chance.

Maybe in years where the signals are overwhelming it's somewhat predictable but most of the time you have conflicted signals. IMO, the atmosphere is just too complicated and there is too much chaos. In other words, things on the micro scale that is simply not predictable very far in advance yet has huge implications to the overall weather pattern, possibly for a couple of weeks which of course has large influences on temp/snow/rain etc.

Despite the inaccuracy of these forecasts, people still get caught up in them and take them seriously...or at least somewhat seriously. Personally, I don't give 2 cents worth on them and don't take them seriously at all. Just look at all the negative outlooks we had for last year. Some of them were near record breaking warm IIRC and look how great it turned out to be.

The bottom line is I urge folks not to get too down or depressed about anyone's forecast.

Hopefully I'm not offending those who put so much time and effort into them. One day, maybe, we will actually be able to predict it with more accuracy and it will be because of the efforts of those like on this board who do so much work on it.

I hear what you are saying in your post I really do, I also disagree with this fully. The only way to get better at winter forecasts is to make them and learn from mistakes. Yes the atmosphere is very complicated, but as you said we are learning more and more and there are signals that forecasters can use as a guide to make a forecast. I look at it this way, when someone puts out a winter forecast they are saying this is what I think the most likely outcome of all these signals and factors coming together equals. I hope to god I'm wrong and the outcome of this winter is not what I fear it will be. I feel seasonal forecasts do have some value as long as you take it with the attitude of this is what should happen but the weather could have a trick up it's sleeve. ie. last winter and some epic -NAO blocking.

The bolded line is the best way I can describe my feeling on seasonal forecasts.

[DaculaWeather]

I agree, you make predictions based on the available data, find a good analog or two that fits the scenario, maybe tweak a little and voila! Instant prediction. May or may not be right but it's kinda fun seeing if you can even get close!

But believe any of them... nah, but put your hopes in a few, of course!

[dsaur]

I agree, you make predictions based on the available data, find a good analog or two that fits the scenario, maybe tweak a little and voila! Instant prediction. May or may not be right but it's kinda fun seeing if you can even get close!

But believe any of them... nah, but put your hopes in a few, of course!

The ones you want to come true! I am going to have to root for May retta to be wrong, but I won't hold it against him if he is right. Either way I can still get me some sleets..so no worries T

[griteater]

Throwing this one in the hopper - winter outlook from commoditywx.com - http://www.commoditywx.com/specialreport082211.pdf