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Winter 2011-2012


triadwx

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The one thing that is a bit wonky about winter outlooks in the SE is that we could have a typical La Nina projection of warmer and drier than average, but get a cold spell for a few weeks and luck out on a good snow. All it takes is one good storm to end up with above average snow given that our annual amounts are so low. By comparison, if you take a location that gets its share of snow (e.g. Boston), a warmer and drier than average winter has a much greater chance of leading to below average snowfall.

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http://www.crh.noaa....testatsandfacts

The low temperature at 7:06 am this morning at International Falls was 19 degrees. This breaks the record low for a September 15th, 24 degrees, set in 1964. This is the coldest temperature reported for so early in the season. This also marks the first time in station history that a temperature in the teens has been recorded in the month of September.

Winter has begun...

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I'm curious to hear what ya'll consider the start of winter to be. For me its December 1st.

My "start of winter" date is the first day that my windshield frosts over.

Coincidentally, that's about the same time of year I start futilely looking for jobs in south Florida.

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The one thing that is a bit wonky about winter outlooks in the SE is that we could have a typical La Nina projection of warmer and drier than average, but get a cold spell for a few weeks and luck out on a good snow. All it takes is one good storm to end up with above average snow given that our annual amounts are so low. By comparison, if you take a location that gets its share of snow (e.g. Boston), a warmer and drier than average winter has a much greater chance of leading to below average snowfall.

Exactly. When you get into areas of southern VA and points south where the annual snow is on the range of 7" to 8" and less, what we need is the pattern. Luckily, we've had the pattern, even in otherwise broad "bad patterns" the last few years. Namely, we score with a cold upper low that dives far south (March 2009), or Gulf lows in a split flow (December 2009), or supressed patterns with great Greenland Blocking (Feb. 2010 and several more events 2011). Either of these big three is how we traditionally get our snow, and we've had an absence of all of these in the years 2005 to 2009 roughly speaking. Now, we've switched back to more and more blocking, Gulf lows, and split flows.

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Exactly. When you get into areas of southern VA and points south where the annual snow is on the range of 7" to 8" and less, what we need is the pattern. Luckily, we've had the pattern, even in otherwise broad "bad patterns" the last few years. Namely, we score with a cold upper low that dives far south (March 2009), or Gulf lows in a split flow (December 2009), or supressed patterns with great Greenland Blocking (Feb. 2010 and several more events 2011). Either of these big three is how we traditionally get our snow, and we've had an absence of all of these in the years 2005 to 2009 roughly speaking. Now, we've switched back to more and more blocking, Gulf lows, and split flows.

The bolded gives me tingles :wub::lol:

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Exactly. When you get into areas of southern VA and points south where the annual snow is on the range of 7" to 8" and less, what we need is the pattern. Luckily, we've had the pattern, even in otherwise broad "bad patterns" the last few years. Namely, we score with a cold upper low that dives far south (March 2009), or Gulf lows in a split flow (December 2009), or supressed patterns with great Greenland Blocking (Feb. 2010 and several more events 2011). Either of these big three is how we traditionally get our snow, and we've had an absence of all of these in the years 2005 to 2009 roughly speaking. Now, we've switched back to more and more blocking, Gulf lows, and split flows.

Um...living in southern Virginia, I can testify..the average snowfall is 7" on the waterfront. A little inland where I am and it bumps up to near a foot on average. Just wanted to clarify. ;) Go west of 95 in S. VA and it goes up quite a bit more.

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Um...living in southern Virginia, I can testify..the average snowfall is 7" on the waterfront. A little inland where I am and it bumps up to near a foot on average. Just wanted to clarify. ;) Go west of 95 in S. VA and it goes up quite a bit more.

thanks. I'm well aware of the snow averages from DC, south... I was speaking in generalities without the map in front of me.

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Exactly. When you get into areas of southern VA and points south where the annual snow is on the range of 7" to 8" and less, what we need is the pattern. Luckily, we've had the pattern, even in otherwise broad "bad patterns" the last few years. Namely, we score with a cold upper low that dives far south (March 2009), or Gulf lows in a split flow (December 2009), or supressed patterns with great Greenland Blocking (Feb. 2010 and several more events 2011). Either of these big three is how we traditionally get our snow, and we've had an absence of all of these in the years 2005 to 2009 roughly speaking. Now, we've switched back to more and more blocking, Gulf lows, and split flows.

Gulf lows and split flows....dang, I think I feel a song coming on :thumbsup:

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35° here this morning...just flew back into Denver yesterday and there is def. snow in the rockies...at or above 11k

Here's a view from a webcam in a mountain community that I bought a parcel of land at a few years ago. The camera is at 9,500 feet. The mountains in the back ground is uncompadre peak; which is a little over 14,000 feet.

http://www.arrowhead1.org/pages/areacond/areacond_arrowhead2.html

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Maybe a frost for a lot of the piedmont? Euro continues with that solution at 12z.

That would be something. I am not ready for the end of the growing season!:arrowhead:

Right now I am thinking mountains only. But still cold in the piedmont but most likely above freezing temps.

Greensboro October 1st

Record Low: 35°F (1924)

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That would be something. I am not ready for the end of the growing season!:arrowhead:

Right now I am thinking mountains only. But still cold in the piedmont but most likely above freezing temps.

Greensboro October 1st

Record Low: 35°F (1924)

I would be all for a freeze. Climatologically speaking, you can count the number of days on one hand with minimum temperatures at or below 32 in October here in the Triad.

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