triadwx Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I thought I'd get the ball rolling. In 8 or 9 days, the days are gonna start getting shorter, and the thought of winter comes to mind. Let's actually get some good discussion and not bash winter like the guys in the Mid-Atlantic are doing. I haven't really read much, but there has been some discussion of the next few winters being cooler, and possibly snowier due to the significant decrease in sunspots. Dunno what that holds in store for us, but I would love to see colder winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 I'll have one serving of what ever kind of winter doesn't have a violent spring to follow...what ever that is....I'd give back my Christmas snow if it would have changed the tornado outcomes we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 According to cpc: Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. it'd be nice to have a nino develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 According to cpc: Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. it'd be nice to have a nino develop I agree...but the only problem I have with Nino's, judging by the last one, is all the warm air. We seemed to have a bunch of monster winter storms on the models that ended up being 33 and rain after the WAA. Now a Nino with lower temps due to low sunspot activity...that could be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 According to cpc: Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have developed and are expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. it'd be nice to have a nino develop Can you imagine a Nino with blocking like we had last winter? I would love to get a Weak Nino to develop in time for winter this year. Looks like we could come close according to the latest model plumes. Still a long ways out but its great to be speculating in June! Also, I put an official countdown to the Winter Solstice in my siggy. December 22, 2011 at 12:30 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I agree...but the only problem I have with Nino's, judging by the last one, is all the warm air. We seemed to have a bunch of monster winter storms on the models that ended up being 33 and rain after the WAA. Now a Nino with lower temps due to low sunspot activity...that could be interesting! Maybe that lower to non existent sun spot activity could affect our winters in a positive way! I read that the last time there was no sun spot activity the Little Ice Age occurred, not sure what kind of affect that had on the weather in our region though, would be worth researching! Although I doubt that this woud lead to another ice age, it would be awesome if it helped us get some bigger snows! There are strong indications that during the Little Ice Age the NAO was more often in a negative mode. (http://www.eh-resour...imline_lia.html) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Maybe that lower to non existent sun spot activity could affect our winters in a positive way! I read somewhere that the last time there was no sun spot activity the Little Ice Age occurred, not sure what kind of affect that had on the weather in our region though, would be worth researching! There are strong indications that during the Little Ice Age the NAO was more often in a negative mode. (http://www.eh-resour...imline_lia.html) Decreased amounts of sunspots would most definitely effect our winters in a positive way. Less sunspots mean less energy output to Earth. Less energy means less heat, and less heat means, well, colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 I believe it will stay neutral through the winter months IMO. It only takes one blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 La Nina is getting a good kick in the pants lately,SOI is really coming down. I'd prefer neutral or an El Nino(not too strong) but -AO and -NAO can dominate any phase as was shown this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It's more likely than not that (at this point) for the ENSO state to remain in its neutral status for the remainder of this year and into a part of 2012 given the remaining characteristics of La Nina involved in the current atmospheric circulation such as the enhanced low-level easterlies and upper level westerlies occurring back in the central equatorial portion of the Pacific, albeit these signals are weak at best (and are continuing to weaken in respect to the current neutral conditions). However, I am also willing to say that this could turn into a weak nino for the winter if we are able to obtain warmer SSTs by, say October or perhaps the early part of November but this is just one of many factors that will need to be re-evaluated later this year so as of now its merely speculation but it's possible. There have been years where the shift toward El Nino occurred just in time for winter, such as 1968-1969 (+1.0 max) or 1976-1977(+0.7 max) and both of these years started out with a weak-moderate La Nina becoming neutral during the year and then transitioning toward Nino at the end. Here's a list that I've compiled showing the possibilities regarding ENSO for this upcoming winter: The following are based on the behavior of the ENSO from the beginning of the year toward the end of the following winter season (years with an ENSO state in between represent a transition during the mid-year period). Information is by the CPC ENSO record data: 1968-1969- Nina, Neutral, Nino 1976-1977- Nina, Neutral, Nino 1989-1990- Nina, Neutral 1996-1997- Nina, Neutral 2000-2001- Nina, Neutral, Nina 2008-2009- Nina, Neutral I'll have a lot more detail once I put out my official winter forecast for this season, which probably won't be until early November and post it on this forum as a topic (if one isn't already made for such by then). Based on the years that I've chose, this says that we either stay neutral through the 2011-2012 winter season as is indicated by the majority of the long range modeling, transition to a weak Nino or regress into La Nina in a sort of back-to-back Nina winter scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 It's more likely than not that (at this point) for the ENSO state to remain in its neutral status for the remainder of this year and into a part of 2012 given the remaining characteristics of La Nina involved in the current atmospheric circulation such as the enhanced low-level easterlies and upper level westerlies occurring back in the central equatorial portion of the Pacific, albeit these signals are weak at best (and are continuing to weaken in respect to the current neutral conditions). However, I am also willing to say that this could turn into a weak nino for the winter if we are able to obtain warmer SSTs by, say October or perhaps the early part of November but this is just one of many factors that will need to be re-evaluated later this year so as of now its merely speculation but it's possible. There have been years where the shift toward El Nino occurred just in time for winter, such as 1968-1969 (+1.0 max) or 1976-1977(+0.7 max) and both of these years started out with a weak-moderate La Nina becoming neutral during the year and then transitioning toward Nino at the end. Here's a list that I've compiled showing the possibilities regarding ENSO for this upcoming winter: The following are based on the behavior of the ENSO from the beginning of the year toward the end of the following winter season (years with an ENSO state in between represent a transition during the mid-year period). Information is by the CPC ENSO record data: 1968-1969- Nina, Neutral, Nino 1976-1977- Nina, Neutral, Nino 1989-1990- Nina, Neutral 1996-1997- Nina, Neutral 2000-2001- Nina, Neutral, Nina 2008-2009- Nina, Neutral I'll have a lot more detail once I put out my official winter forecast for this season, which probably won't be until early November and post it on this forum as a topic (if one isn't already made for such by then). Based on the years that I've chose, this says that we either stay neutral through the 2011-2012 winter season as is indicated by the majority of the long range modeling, transition to a weak Nino or regress into La Nina in a sort of back-to-back Nina winter scenario. Is there a website where you can see how cold/snowy each of these winters were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Is there a website where you can see how cold/snowy each of these winters were? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ You can play around with this. Plug in the years and you can do either temperature of precipitation. Not necessarily snow but you can get a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Is there a website where you can see how cold/snowy each of these winters were? I know Weatherkid's answered for ya (which is a great source he posted btw), but here's another one that you can use. Not as much as the first link but is pretty simplified (mean temperature and precipitation) with data going all the way back to 1900. You can also select months of course with options for certain seasons or you can select annual data too. http://www.ncdc.noaa.../cag3/cag3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...ata/usclimdivs/ You can play around with this. Plug in the years and you can do either temperature of precipitation. Not necessarily snow but you can get a pretty good idea. I know Weatherkid's answered for ya (which is a great source to use btw), but here's another one that you can use. Not as much as the first link but is pretty simplified (mean temperature and precipitation) with data going all the way back to 1900. You can also select months of course with options for certain seasons or you can select annual data too. http://www.ncdc.noaa.../cag3/cag3.html Thanks, those will be very useful tools! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 40 inches from Orlando north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Some ENSO great discussion has taken place in this thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18646-why-is-enso-warming/ It is pretty technical at times for amateurs like myself. But you can get the main ideas of what HM and friends are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Talking about winter got me in the mood. So I finally downloaded some 250+ pictures from last winter. I'd been putting it off, but I needed some room on the camera. I hope we see something like this again real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Talking about winter got me in the mood. So I finally downloaded some 250+ pictures from last winter. I'd been putting it off, but I needed some room on the camera. I hope we see something like this again real soon. Yeah, me too. I've been looking at pictures, watching videos, and reading old winter threads. Boy, winter just can't come quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Speaking of mini ice age did any of you see JB's post on the Bell site concerning this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Speaking of mini ice age did any of you see JB's post on the Bell site concerning this? No, link us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Talking about winter got me in the mood. So I finally downloaded some 250+ pictures from last winter. I'd been putting it off, but I needed some room on the camera. I hope we see something like this again real soon. This just makes me wish it was winter even more! I'm ready for those long nights staying up waiting for the Euro to run, hoping that the red taggers are positive about the storm and that just puts us all in a good mood, living and dying by every model run, combing through thousands of posts in the many separate threads we have to create for just one storm, and the inner weenie coming out in all of us when that one model buries our backyard or you see that first flake fall from the sky! :snowman: Speaking of mini ice age did any of you see JB's post on the Bell site concerning this? Can you give us the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 This just makes me wish it was winter even more! I'm ready for those long nights staying up waiting for the Euro to run, hoping that the red taggers are positive about the storm and that just puts us all in a good mood, living and dying by every model run, combing through thousands of posts in the many separate threads we have to create for just one storm, and the inner weenie coming out in all of us when that one model buries our backyard or you see that first flake fall from the sky! :snowman: Can you give us the link Well at least the Summer Solstice is comming hot and heavy. Im ready for it to be dark at 5:30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 This just makes me wish it was winter even more! I'm ready for those long nights staying up waiting for the Euro to run, hoping that the red taggers are positive about the storm and that just puts us all in a good mood, living and dying by every model run, combing through thousands of posts in the many separate threads we have to create for just one storm, and the inner weenie coming out in all of us when that one model buries our backyard or you see that first flake fall from the sky! :snowman: Can you give us the link Well at least the Summer Solstice is comming hot and heavy. Im ready for it to be dark at 5:30! I see we are talking dirty in here this morning. hahaha These things are awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 :snowman: I want cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Yeah, me too. I've been looking at pictures, watching videos, and reading old winter threads. Boy, winter just can't come quick enough. I'm glad I'm not the only one! If I was a bear I'd hibernate all summer. We need some very active volcano spewing scattered around the world to go with the new minimum. Though I fear the time lines are such that it could be 100 years before the really good cold sets in, lol. I keep looking for Iceland to really cook off, and blanket us with sun blocking aerosols, but so far just burps. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 JB and the mini ice age http://www.weatherbell.com/fitch/index.php?cmd=homepage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 JB and the mini ice age http://www.weatherbe...hp?cmd=homepage JB has always been on the extreme side of things but I tend to agree with him on his cooling earth observations and predictions. Maybe it's just because I remember the 70's winters and wish I could re-live them again. Never-the-less, based on the last couple of winters. you can't deny that we seem to be entering a period dominated by a -NAO. Bring on the snow and cold....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 JB and the mini ice age http://www.weatherbe...hp?cmd=homepage I hate to have to wait till 2030 for these "forecasted" colder winters, I want it by December 2011! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 JB has always been on the extreme side of things but I tend to agree with him on his cooling earth observations and predictions. Maybe it's just because I remember the 70's winters and wish I could re-live them again. Never-the-less, based on the last couple of winters. you can't deny that we seem to be entering a period dominated by a -NAO. Bring on the snow and cold....... ditto <-- What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Some of the latest dynamical models have trended a little more toward a weak Nina this fall/winter. Those are to be taken with a grain of salt this far out, but sometimes they can catch onto a trend. We'll have to see how it looks a month from now. From the NE forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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