Derecho! Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 The traditional view of El Niño is that it starts with a warm sea surface anomaly off the west coast of South America. This aberrant warming drifts west from the coast, triggering peak sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific during the southern summer. However, as the observational record grows and the full range of variability comes into view, some researchers have suggested that a recent slate of El Niño events that focus on the central Pacific, skipping the eastern warming, is indicative of the system being composed of at least two unique climate dynamics. The central Pacific-focused El Niño Modoki has been increasing in prevalence over recent decades, and researchers expect this trend to continue with global warming. New research by Takahashi et al., however, indicates that El Niño Modoki and the classical type are, in fact, one but that the perceived divergent behavior highlights the dynamic range of the system. Using El Niño observations stretching back to 1870, the authors perform a statistical analysis, breaking down the data set to isolate hidden spatial and temporal patterns. The Modoki and traditional El Niño records do not show the clustering that would be expected for separate climate phenomena. What do stand out, however, are the extreme warm events that occurred in the eastern Pacific in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. On the basis of their findings, the authors propose two indices to describe the development of El Niño events: one for the moderate warming of the central Pacific and another for the extreme heat sometimes seen in the east. Therefore, the propagation of a given El Niño would be a combination of these two variables. Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047364, 2011 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047364 Title: ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño Authors: K. Takahashi: Instituto Geofísico del Perú , Lima, Perú; A. Montecinos: Departamento de Geofísica, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile; K. Goubanova and B. Dewitte: Instituto Geofísico del Perú , Lima, Perú and Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, CNES/CNRS/IRD/UPS, Toulouse, France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 thanks for the great info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Here is a pdf link... ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño http://www.met.igp.gob.pe/publicaciones/2011/2011GL047364-pip.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Wouldn't 1972-3 also fit within the "extreme" variety that affected the eastern Pacific as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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