Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Hour 168 big time Miller B energy coming straight out of West-Central Canada into the Northern Plains Does it dig far south enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 180 sub 1012 low over central mn, lgt precip in same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Does it dig far south enough? no, as of 192 its just over the western lakes, its really weak, with not much precip with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Pretty much sounds like this run is not going to be as good as earlier runs were as far as the storm system is concerned.. Here was 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 204 mdt precip breaking out in southern states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Surface low in the TX panhandle at 210. The northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes is racing towards the big block which had moved north of the 50/50 position..and is acting to reinforce the cold air a bit. Nothing too amazing yet this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 210 precip continues to breakout in the souther states Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 -NAO block is trying to rebuild at 216, but it doesn't look like it's going to do so in time. Heights are already rising on the east coast..we will see. Another solution from the grab bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 222 has a sub 1008 low over southern ark precip in the ten valley southern states up to ohio river 850 and frz line right on 40 north parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 228 sub 1000 low over northern miss precip up to 40 n parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 trof is already at negative tilt at hr 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 234 sub 1000 low over central ten 850 run along m/d line then to ohio river. precip up to i80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Closed at 540dm over Northern AL at 234 hrs..very close and most likely a mixed bag event verbatim, but the guidance continues to indicate the potential for something in this period, and given the suggested pattern and cold air prior to the event, I am not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Huge storm at 240 hrs...a bit warm but we have room to work with here. I like what I see. 996mb surface low over western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 240 sub 996 over nc mtns rain from boston to mt pocono to altoona south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Once again, not concerned about details/track right now. The storm is still on the model for 3 runs now on the east coast with ample cold air to work with. Looking good...for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 hr 240 sub 996 over nc mtns rain from boston to mt pocono to altoona south and east earthlight isn't discouraged, which is good. Maybe the Euro and GFS are both playing to their biases (one too cold/suppressed and one too warm.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 earthlight isn't discouraged, which is good. Maybe the Euro and GFS are both playing to their biases (one too cold/suppressed and one too warm.) I an not quite sure if the ECM has a warm bias..it sounds more to me like the setup is just not as good as it was two runs ago. It had started to break down at 12 Z ..and the NAO from what was said is east based... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I an not quite sure if the ECM has a warm bias..it sounds more to me like the setup is just not as good as it was two runs ago. It had started to break down at 12 Z ..and the NAO from what was said is east based... 240 hrs anything can change at this point. we cant really even track trends until we see some consistency. Just be happy the euro/gfs see the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 it's a north atlantic ridge, not a true high latitude block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The good thing is the storm is on the table for next weekend, personally I would like to see the storm about 24 hours sooner then what is being depicted on the Euro but that could always change on future runs. The finer details such as track, precipitation type, and amounts can be hashed out later, curious to see what the Euro will be showing in a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 it's a north atlantic ridge, not a true high latitude block It looks like it will form into an Iceland block eventually...ensembles have then been retrograding it into Greenland in the longer term. But yeah, that is not a true -NAO block at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The setup at 240 looks very 12/25/02 ish to me...unlike the 12Z run, the high is no longer really in a good position to allow for any sort of good front end snows for coastal regions but we'll see a few or 5 more changes in the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The setup at 240 looks very 12/25/02 ish to me...unlike the 12Z run, the high is no longer really in a good position to allow for any sort of good front end snows for coastal regions but we'll see a few or 5 more changes in the next 3 days. 12/25/02 was excellent later on though, as the rain changed over to a very heavy snow. Got about 8 inches here in western long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I an not quite sure if the ECM has a warm bias..it sounds more to me like the setup is just not as good as it was two runs ago. It had started to break down at 12 Z ..and the NAO from what was said is east based... I have seen here that its temps seem to run a little warm sometimes, especially in the long range. But the GFS has had it beat lately anyway on pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 our best chances are after mid month, when (and if) the upper high over the north atlantic can retrograde into greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Here's the 0z Euro 240hr map just for some reference: Certainly a better option wintry weatherwise than the 12z version which sent this smack in the middle of the lakes, even though that run still hinted at enough cold around for a probable interior wintry mix. Considering the 0z's positioning of the low in western NC at hr 240, I noticed that there doesn't seem to be any kind of a secondary low formation or reflection on the coast modeled up to that point. Would have to think under typical circumstances that a storm in that position would potentially be starting to transfer to the coast at about that time. Too early in the game to really hone in on much of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This pattern right now says dont look at anything past day 7. enuf said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 This pattern right now says dont look at anything past day 7. enuf said! normally i would agree with this statement, but sadly, there just isnt anything worth watching besides air inside day 7 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I really wouldn't go past day 5 to be honest, or at least put much stock into anything past day 5. This pattern right now says dont look at anything past day 7. enuf said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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