brettjrob Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I blew off chasing the OK/KS border today because of LCL concerns. So far, seems like a good call... now counting down the minutes until sunset to see whether it really was. TOG now on live streams... I pretty much knew my posting this would prompt that within 15 minutes. You decide about Nebraska tomorrow yet? Leaning in favor of it now. Really don't want to spend money on a hotel since I'll be going solo (which is part of why I blew off today), so I'm thinking about leaving here around 7am, which is still a tad risky. Like the LBF-EAR-MCK triangle as of now. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Elephant trunk tornado reported on the cell on the NE/OK border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 804 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MILLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTH CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT. * AT 758 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SUNRISE BEACH TO KAISER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ELDON...LAKE OZARK...LAKELAND... LAURIE...OSAGE BEACH...VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS AND VILLAGE OF FOUR SE. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC in new meso discussion now thinks a svr MCS will cross basically the southern half of MO overnight and require a new watch issuance eastward. MUCAPE between 4000 and 5000 across the entire area, with an extremely high theta-e airmass in place. It is primed for a MCS once that LLJ cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TOG now on live streams... I pretty much knew my posting this would prompt that within 15 minutes. Ehh it happens to the best of us...at least you didn't miss a wedge 10 miles from your house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Had a good flying eagle look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Stream showing Osage Co. tornado: http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=10164&C=20226&O=10300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 80mph winds (estimated) on the storm in TX...scary report Chad Bolinger2011-06-19 01:08:00 UTC(S) Wind (80mph) [E]Spotter is 2 miles NE of Gainesville, TX18" branches snapped. Multiple trees up to 12" toppled. Damage to multiple houses. No power to neighborhood. Tree crashed through patio. Dislocated my left arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Significant damage reported in Gainesville, TX, from straightline winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TOG now on live streams... I pretty much knew my posting this would prompt that within 15 minutes. Leaning in favor of it now. Really don't want to spend money on a hotel since I'll be going solo (which is part of why I blew off today), so I'm thinking about leaving here around 7am, which is still a tad risky. Like the LBF-EAR-MCK triangle as of now. Any thoughts? Ouch, TOG almost right after you posted. Also, im on the way to NE right now. Currently in Davenport, IA. Looking at around Kearney, NE tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 80mph winds (estimated) on the storm in TX...scary report Chad Bolinger2011-06-19 01:08:00 UTC(S) Wind (80mph) [E]Spotter is 2 miles NE of Gainesville, TX18" branches snapped. Multiple trees up to 12" toppled. Damage to multiple houses. No power to neighborhood. Tree crashed through patio. Dislocated my left arm. David Reimer from our forum is streaming right next to him, says the damage is pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 503...WW 504...WW 505...WW 506...WW 507... DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS EVE INVOF DIFFUSE WNW/ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING WW AREA...WITH OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP EWD FROM ERN KS/SW MO THOUGH EARLY SUN AS VEERING OF MODERATE LLJ ENHANCES WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER REGION. 30-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOA 4000 J PER KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS LIKELY POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 For Monday...To say a tornado isn't going to happen in S KS is not something i quite understand, considering the dynamics in play this far out. Don't take this as wishcasting because I live in S KS, but the set up is not bad.....a tornado or two is definitely doable. Furher north near the warm front....GOod luck chasing closer to the closed low, they suck, and they suck, and they suck some more. If you love S-Shaped Hodographs this is the system for you!!! KS has been burned so bad by a Back-Veer-Back-Veer setup at least three times this year, don't let it fool you people up north. IF LCL/Capping issues can be worked out the best tornado chance IMO is somwhere along the DL, not the WF. If they don't get worked out then gamble on some quasilinear undirectonal crap up north. Get as far away from closed lows as possible without ruining other dynamics IMO. I could be wrong, but this sounding screams at least a chance for a tornado or two... http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KEMP Heck even on that sounding the stupid back veer back takes place, but it only gets worse further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 TOG now on live streams... I pretty much knew my posting this would prompt that within 15 minutes. Leaning in favor of it now. Really don't want to spend money on a hotel since I'll be going solo (which is part of why I blew off today), so I'm thinking about leaving here around 7am, which is still a tad risky. Like the LBF-EAR-MCK triangle as of now. Any thoughts? Good luck tomorrow, I would go chasing but I have a strong feeling I will be called in to help with severe weather ops here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Mammatus in Joplin and also thunder, but I'm not seeing a cell near here yet. Joplinmet is ustreaming online. (he's on 2 weeks vacation but went in anyway) http://www.ustream.tv/channel/koam-7-skywatch-coverage-live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Nope. You don't want to be well into the warm sector for severe wx on this one...that area may be capped. You honestly want to be right where we'll be, near the warm front... You guys know this stuff better than I do, so I will take your word for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Stunning mesocyclone passing over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Not really severe related, but looks like some serious flash flooding near Eau Claire. Already four inches of rain reported, with 2-3 inch per hour rates likely to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Stunning mesocyclone passing over my house. Those rapidly intensifying cells near Wichita are expanding in areal coverage and will probably form one of the MCS's that will continue eastward tonight. Interesting that they formed behind the initial discrete cell on the OK/KS border which became tor warned and is still chugging eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Good luck tomorrow, I would go chasing but I have a strong feeling I will be called in to help with severe weather ops here. Your CWA better treat me better than it did on Memorial Day. (EDIT: I just mean the storms, not the WFO!). Good luck in the office. Hopefully you'll be able to sneak out somehow, or if not, maybe something will come right to ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Lots of people milling about downtown Springfield now and even more at some giant music festival going on here in town...should be interesting as the MCS comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Stunning mesocyclone passing over my house. Pretty elevated? Looking at SRH.. it's up to 600... So.. hope it's pretty elevated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Pretty elevated? Looking at SRH.. it's up to 600... So.. hope it's pretty elevated.... Look at the cell in Butler COunty thats the one i am on MASSIVE WALL CCLOUD The base is ridculous the CG is insane right now, can't believe it isn't tornado warne! Definitely not elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I have to back up on US 400 the bears cage is getting rather large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 This isn't warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERNCALLAWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT... AT 937 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MYKEE...OR NEAR HOLTS SUMMIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FULTON...GUTHRIE AND CARRINGTON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Im off the cell now, its hard to see anything and the wall cloud has moved south off of US 400, hard to see much of anything now, its still appears to have a nice base too it, but wow ICT should have warned it. Gotta reload for the next round. Gotta love a SE 30-35 KNT LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Large cone funnel reported 3/4 of the way to the ground, on the OK cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Its become a large cluster now in my county (Butler County KS) so anoy tornadic threat appears to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 off the 21z SREF tomorrow.. monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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