baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I would have to think SPC is getting ready to issue a watch for SE KS/N OK/SW MO very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I would have to think SPC is getting ready to issue a watch for SE KS/N OK/SW MO very shortly. yeah that cell looks to be sustaining itself so far. They may be waiting to see that it doesn't get choked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ark. City storm has a warning now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 And here comes the Severe T-storm watch. 105 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 yeah that cell looks to be sustaining itself so far. They may be waiting to see that it doesn't get choked off. I'd say sustaining itself. From nothing to almost 60,000 feet in 4 scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I'd say sustaining itself. From nothing to almost 60,000 feet in 4 scans. Yeah it already has a V-Notch. Impressive for a storm that just went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Expecting tops to 60K. Don't see that in wording all too often. But with the CAPE in the area it is not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Yeah it already has a V-Notch. Impressive for a storm that just went up. And dropping golf balls in Arkansas City already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The convective temperature applies when there is no other forcing present. So while yes, the convective temperature is high considering the cap, convective initiation can occur without reaching that temp. Thank you, I know that. But it can be used as a rough proxy for an idea as to how high the temps have to be given a certain amount of forcing. Also, with Oklahoma likely being in the right-exit region of the jet streak Monday afternoon/evening, the forcing you're going to get is nowhere near what you think it is. But in any manner, at some point, no amount of forcing would be able to overcome a sky-high conv. temp. Please don't insult me. Take a look at model trends: a sharper and deeper mid and upper level trough -->colder temps aloft, and stronger forcing; Emphasis on the word aloft. From my experience, the GFS actually underdoes mid-level temps (~700mb) with these scenarios. The NAM (again which I generally abhor) actually has 15-17°C H7 temps, and given how hot and dry it's been, I don't think that's far-fetched at all, especially since, as the trough sharpens, it will be advecting H7 air from some of the deepest EML source regions there are, those that climatologically have been heating the longest. Now those cooler temps aloft will steepen lapse rates and could make any nighttime cold frontal convection more likely to produce hail, but it's not going to promote your tornado scenario. Also, see first response above w/r/t forcing claim. surface low has been shifting south and west every run --> backing low level winds, and advecting higher dew points ahead of the dry line. ??? We are talking about Monday, right? If so, I don't know what you're talking about. On the Euro, it has shifted maybe a county or two south over the last four runs, and on the GFS, if anything, it looks a hair north. Don't make up facts to support your argument. The fact of the matter is, the sfc dews progged on the most recent runs look similar to what have been progged over the last several days, which are probably going to be low 70s (assuming the GFS is a bit high). Model prog LCLs are under 1000m ahead of the dry line. Still of course, higher than an ideal setup, but you can get high based tornadoes. I'm not calling for a tornado outbreak, but I think a few are likely Monday evening. Certainly the large hail threat is there. Yes, model prog LCLs are under 1000m ahead of the dry line. Well ahead of the dry line. Where the cap is still going to be thermonuclear because there will have been little in the way of any mid-level cooling. As stated before, and it's a fact that hasn't changed, the LCLs in the zone right ahead of the dryline where convection, if it is to form, will likely form are on the order of about 1500m. No way José. And without a favorable quadrant of the jet streak being overhead, without any dCVA going on, and with the cap in place, you WILL NOT get convection in the region with favorable LCLs. I don't 100% disagree with the large hail threat, as I think it's probably going to be there after 00z. However, I question exactly how prolific it will be, given that sometimes these elevated post-00z hail events tend to underperform. I just don't really, in any way, shape, or form, see a tornado happening in Oklahoma or southern Kansas Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 And dropping golf balls in Arkansas City already. It just shed its left moving pair--that thing should crap out fast. The amount of low level turning is quite evident in both the cloud CU and the surface map. Already turning into a classic supercell on the last scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 It just shed its left moving pair--that thing should crap out fast. The amount of low level turning is quite evident in both the cloud CU and the surface map. Already turning into a classic supercell on the last scan. Curious looking polygon from OUN, but then again the same might be said for a couple of mine tonight too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Not to take away from the supercell on the KS/OK border but there has a been a tornado warning out for Orlando and it looked pretty good visually for a while from our hotel balcony....got good video and pics. I swear tornado warnings follow me. Had several around Louisville when I was there in april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Curious looking polygon from OUN, but then again the same might be said for a couple of mine tonight too! Special marine warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Special marine warning? Only SVRs for me tonight. Not bad for "see text." Now that the Cowley County cell has fully split, the right mover is going to town. Great structure on it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Not to mention any tornado there would like ride the state line (OUN and ICT CWAs), talk about inter-office coordination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 sheww, 62kft, and a classic supercell presentation on radar. On the road, so I only got GR3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I love these high CAPE environment for some of the crazy storm evolutions you can get. The left split looks like it has split again with another right moving member north of Winfield, Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 A well defined hook along with decent rotation on the supercell just north of Hardy, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 A well defined hook along with decent rotation on the supercell just north of Hardy, OK. The lowest level velocity appears to be more inflow than rotation (though there is a weak couplet there at 0.5 degrees), but just one slice higher and there is a 90 kt gate to gate couplet that may be real but looks just odd enough that it may be a data artifact. Next volume scan will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Latest severe t-storm warning sliver from Tulsa, OK indicated broad low level circulation on that KS/OK border storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The lowest level velocity appears to be more inflow than rotation (though there is a weak couplet there at 0.5 degrees), but just one slice higher and there is a 90 kt gate to gate couplet that may be real but looks just odd enough that it may be a data artifact. Next volume scan will be telling. Just like that the gate to gate is gone, but the meso is still very strong up around 20kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Not to talk up my teacher (Sirvatka) but he does write the best SN reports out there and really lets the NWS whats going on with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Circulation appears to be trying to tighten up with the border storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Circulation appears to be trying to tighten up with the border storm now. And tornado warning * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 733 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Storms are starting to "pop" just West of US-65, Sedalia MO, with 60k ft heights. Should see a T-Storm Warning for Windsor, Cole Camp, and Sedalia soon. It's on the Northern sector of the largest CAPE values of MO. 5500 SBCAPE and 4500 MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Storms are starting to "pop" just West of US-65, Sedalia MO, with 60k ft heights. Should see a T-Storm Warning for Windsor, Cole Camp, and Sedalia soon. It's on the Northern sector of the largest CAPE values of MO. 5500 SBCAPE and 4500 MLCAPE. The ICT 88D is pinging 50 dBZ at 50kft on those storms. Pretty good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I blew off chasing the OK/KS border today because of LCL concerns. So far, seems like a good call... now counting down the minutes until sunset to see whether it really was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I blew off chasing the OK/KS border today because of LCL concerns. So far, seems like a good call... now counting down the minutes until sunset to see whether it really was. You decide about Nebraska tomorrow yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 SPC in new meso discussion now thinks a svr MCS will cross basically the southern half of MO overnight and require a new watch issuance eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Elephant trunk tornado reported on the ground in Osage County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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