Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 You can see a meso and a dry bow echo forming on the OKC radar. A few splotches trying to get going near the TX border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Dry bow echo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 SREF on crack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Not the best of soundings. However, note the cap is basically gone, and 100% tornado on the Sounding Analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 This sounding is for Albion, NE at 7pm cdt tomorrow evening. Very alarming to say the least (especially with Supercell Potential at 100%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 SREF on crack? A value like this always reminds me to check other parameters to see if it is synoptically realistic. But have to confess, I was startled initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The 0-1km SRH on that 19z sounding is alarmingly higher than I had expected to see...short-fuse RUC apparently not handling SRH well in SW MO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 You can see a meso and a dry bow echo forming on the OKC radar. A few splotches trying to get going near the TX border What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 OUN AFD: POTENT SYSTEM FOR LATE JUNE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY - THE MAIN QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHETHER THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT WILL HOLD IN MOST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... THUS LOW POPS MONDAY ARE CONFINED TO NCENTRAL OK. CHANCES INCREASE AS STORMS BUILD S ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 What? Maybe I made a bad description. I'll just let the OKC radar speak for itself. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=tlx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Huge rains near Jacksonville Illinois last night. (about 30 miles from me) I know many roads including I-72 was closed. Radar estimates 16 inches of rain over night but I don't know if that's accurate. I do know they got a huge rain. I got 2.60in at my house over night and it was rumbling all night. Springfield (IL) State Journal-Register report on the flooding situation in Jacksonville and Morgan County, IL: http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x1774073183/Major-flooding-problems-in-Morgan-County It's so bad over there that their fresh water supply may be in jeopardy after this evening. Meanwhile, Peoria has had little or no rain in the last 24 hours, while we also had our fair share in Springfield too (but Capitol Airport has only received 0.29 in. since midnight--but I am almost certain near downtown where I live we've had at least an inch or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 The day I get to Orlando I get a tornado warned storm with a reported tornado less than 40 miles to my NNE on a lake breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 That sup in eastern Colorado is ripping right along. 110kts+ g2g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 The surface low is really beginning to take shape in northern OK, south winds ahead are increasing S of the front, and the CU field is beginning to turn more SE across the warm sector. I would have to think initiation will be very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 That sup in eastern Colorado is ripping right along. 110kts+ g2g. Day three of supercells preferentially riding the Palmer Divide. I love High Plains/Colorado convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 That sup in eastern Colorado is ripping right along. 110kts+ g2g. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 357 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... * UNTIL 445 PM MDT * AT 354 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILD HORSE...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. AT 352 PM A STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO 5 NORTH NORTHEAST OF WILD HORSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like southern KS will be the first to go based on the TCU developing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like southern KS will be the first to go based on the TCU developing out there. Had to duck out because of a flurry of warnings up here in Maine. We got a really nice shelf cloud with an outflow dominant supercell (got east of the seabreeze). There has been sustained convergence in Sumner County all afternoon, so I'm not surprised to see tCu development there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 What? I think the poster was referring to dryline advancement seen on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 That's not a significant difference. When it comes to convection, 1-2C is a significant difference. And by the way, the trend continues with the 18z runs. Really talking closer to 10-13C now, with the mid level low trending more and more southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Nope, unless by N of OKC you mean N of Wichita. With 13-16°C H7 temps, the kind of convective temps you would need to break the cap (probably upper 90s-100s) would dictate high LCLs and a distinct unlikelihood of tornadoes. Look at the GFS model soundings for 00z Tuesday (Monday evening). By then, yes, the cap is nearly eroded (emphasis on nearly) along the dryline. The LCLs are also above 1500m. Will not do it. To the east, where the LCLs would favor tornadoes, the cap is still thermonuclear. The main push of differential CVA/lift does not arrive until right around 00z. By the time storms form after 00z, three things will likely be happening. First is that the boundary layer will begin to decouple, thus causing activity that forms to be elevated and of little/no tornado threat. Second is that shear vectors will likely back a bit, increasing linear forcing and decreasing the potential for storms to remain discrete. Third thing is that, according to the GFS and with NAM support (though I abhor using the NAM right now), the cold front should be overtaking the dryline by that time, also increasing forcing for ascent and decreasing discrete supercell potential. Now that will likely break the cap, but by then storms will be elevated and it can be very difficult to get sig severe from elevated convection, though not impossible (hail being most likely). The convective temperature applies when there is no other forcing present. So while yes, the convective temperature is high considering the cap, convective initiation can occur without reaching that temp. Take a look at model trends: a sharper and deeper mid and upper level trough -->colder temps aloft, and stronger forcing; surface low has been shifting south and west every run --> backing low level winds, and advecting higher dew points ahead of the dry line. Model prog LCLs are under 1000m ahead of the dry line. Still of course, higher than an ideal setup, but you can get high based tornadoes. I'm not calling for a tornado outbreak, but I think a few are likely Monday evening. Certainly the large hail threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ya, when that cap breaks in se KS and sw MO there will be some whopping straight line winds and hailers overnight. I do wonder about the potential for tors given that Tornadotony mentioned the helicity value in the sounding is higher than that progged by RUC. Something to watch. Cells forming off the dryline in southern OK along the Red River surprised me somewhat, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Initiation right on the OK/KS border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ya, when that cap breaks in se KS and sw MO there will be some whopping straight line winds and hailers overnight. I do wonder about the potential for tors given that Tornadotony mentioned the helicity value in the sounding is higher than that progged by RUC. Something to watch. The tornado potential definitely exists from Southeast Kansas into Southwest Missouri. Definitely don't agree with just a 2% tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 GOES obviously just went into rapid scan operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Had to duck out because of a flurry of warnings up here in Maine. We got a really nice shelf cloud with an outflow dominant supercell (got east of the seabreeze). There has been sustained convergence in Sumner County all afternoon, so I'm not surprised to see tCu development there now. I'm heading to Maine tomorrow! If only I got there one day earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 When it comes to convection, 1-2C is a significant difference. And by the way, the trend continues with the 18z runs. Really talking closer to 10-13C now, with the mid level low trending more and more southward I think you are trying to teach the wrong person about DMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Initiation right on the OK/KS border... Let's see if that cell near Arkansas City at present can survive and start this evening's show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I LOVED the Super Rapid Scan Images that they had when they were doing tests. Anyone know when that actually 'GOES' into operation? It's amazing! sorry for lame pun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I LOVED the Super Rapid Scan Images that they had when they were doing tests. Anyone know when that actually 'GOES' into operation? It's amazing!sorry for lame pun <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> I thought they just randomly do it during weather events. SRSO has been implemented during a bunch of hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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