A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 sick MCS this morning and a classic warm front hang up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 sick MCS this morning and a classic warm front hang up. Hopefully we will both be seeing action like this in the next couple days up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 sick MCS this morning and a classic warm front hang up. That is a crazy image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Hopefully we will both be seeing action like this in the next couple days up here. maybe, but those massive MCS complexes, especially ones with west-east linear lines really suppress surface fronts, I suspected the models were too aggresive in lifting the front and this is adding to my concerns. That said I still think we make a brief appearance on the proper side of the surface front by Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Swing and a miss for me with that MCS. I chose to be in Springfield MO this weekend and am kicking myself because the storms that formed it were sick in Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 LOT has really backed of temps for Sun, Mon, Tues. They were predicting low 90's by Tuesday but it looks like it will just be above 80. Not holding out a whole lot of hope. Thinking the warm front will come N by Tuesday, but will hang up just to the south of the CWA. Chances of storms from today through Tuesday, would mean an MCS perhaps, or at least a decaying one, which will probably leave us clouded in for most of Tuesday. Temps aren't supposed to get out of the 70's today and tomorrow, where we were forecast for mid-upper 80's. I think our chances for severe weather will be somewhat limited Mon and Tues, unless we are well into the warm sector. That's my guess... take if for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 LOT has really backed of temps for Sun, Mon, Tues. They were predicting low 90's by Tuesday but it looks like it will just be above 80. Not holding out a whole lot of hope. Thinking the warm front will come N by Tuesday, but will hang up just to the south of the CWA. Chances of storms from today through Tuesday, would mean an MCS perhaps, or at least a decaying one, which will probably leave us clouded in for most of Tuesday. Temps aren't supposed to get out of the 70's today and tomorrow, where we were forecast for mid-upper 80's. I think our chances for severe weather will be somewhat limited Mon and Tues, unless we are well into the warm sector. That's my guess... take if for what it's worth. no sense obsessing over the details this far out. Like LOT mentions, today will be nearly identical to yesterday...beautiful. Late tonight into tomorrow an MCS will form and models are already all over the place...some lift it north (unlikely imo) and others drive it well south like this morning (likely). Beyond that it's pretty muddy but it really does seem to be the case that once repeat nocturnal MCS action sets up well south, it becomes hard to lift it north for much more than a passing stay in the warm sector immediately proceeding the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Looks like NAM is advertising widespread temperatures in the 90s, with dewpoints above 70, for Southeastern Michigan at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 maybe, but those massive MCS complexes, especially ones with west-east linear lines really suppress surface fronts, I suspected the models were too aggresive in lifting the front and this is adding to my concerns. That said I still think we make a brief appearance on the proper side of the surface front by Tues. Based upon the Euro/GFS the CF might not get through until early on Wednesday for you and Late Wednesday over here. Maybe even later, than that at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I think our chances for severe weather will be somewhat limited Mon and Tues, unless we are well into the warm sector. Nope. You don't want to be well into the warm sector for severe wx on this one...that area may be capped. You honestly want to be right where we'll be, near the warm front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Nope. You don't want to be well into the warm sector for severe wx on this one...that area may be capped. You honestly want to be right where we'll be, near the warm front... I would agree. It appears that even areas that are predicted to only be in the 70s, likndae Southern Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota, have a shot at severe weather on Monday and Tuesday, probably due to their proximity to the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... ...ERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DAY3...THOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE NAM. REGARDLESS...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NM/TX PANHANDLE AND EXTEND ALONG A CORRIDOR INTO IA/SWRN WI WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL CERTAINLY FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE AN EXPANDING AND SUPPRESSING EML THAT SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR AREAS NOT PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT/FORCED. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POWERFUL CAP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE 700MB TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 14-16C. LATEST THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE NWD-EWD ALONG EDGE OF EXPANDING EML AS THICKNESSES RISE IN THE WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. ASIDE FROM AN EARLY PERIOD HAIL THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE LATE IN THE DAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF SFC LOW. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF KS INTO OK WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT COULD/SHOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK. ..DARROW.. 06/18/2011 Further evidence of the benefits of being near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 00z Euro looks very impressive for a severe weather threat in northern OK and KS, Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 00z Euro looks very impressive for a severe weather threat in northern OK and KS Other than the hot air advection (HAA) at 700mb from the desert over that area, I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Other than the hot air advection (HAA) at 700mb from the desert over that area, I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Other than the hot air advection (HAA) at 700mb from the desert over that area, I would agree. Well the Euro still develops cells over central OK (700mb RH field moistens considerably). It sharpened the trough a lot, and is indicating very strong forcing, centered around KS. A solid cap will be in place for sure, and that may just help keep cells discrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Well the Euro still develops cells over central OK (700mb RH field moistens considerably). It sharpened the trough a lot, and is indicating very strong forcing, centered around KS. A solid cap will be in place for sure, and that may just help keep cells discrete You can still get precip in an environment otherwise suitable for good severe without having good severe because of capping/WAA aloft (see MO a few nights ago). I could see KS north of Wichita having a good severe threat Monday where the strongest height falls/forcing will be, but south of Wichita it will be immensely difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Yeah, Monday night definitely looks primed, especially northern IA, and southern MN. As long as you can stay in lower H7 temps, and near the WF, things should be rockin. Tomorrow (Sunday) on the other hand is interesting. While there is still a small threat in the IN/OH/KY range, models have seemed to back off a bit. I'm also not so sure about the western NE corridor for tomorrow. Unfortunately, I think its just too risky for me to drive all that way for a potential bust-I prolly just jinxed myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Yeah, Monday night definitely looks primed, especially northern IA, and southern MN. As long as you can stay in lower H7 temps, and near the WF, things should be rockin. Tomorrow (Sunday) on the other hand is interesting. While there is still a small threat in the IN/OH/KY range, models have seemed to back off a bit. I'm also not so sure about the western NE corridor for tomorrow. Unfortunately, I think its just too risky for me to drive all that way for a potential bust-I prolly just jinxed myself. What do you think of Tuesday Night? Similar threat, just shifted a bit east into the Western Great Lakes and Northern OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 What do you think of Tuesday Night? Similar threat, just shifted a bit east into the Western Great Lakes and Northern OV? Ehhh, not much of a tornado threat on Tuesday Night. The trough goes positive, and the winds are pretty unidirectional. I could see maybe some wind and hail, but tornado threat is really low. Ton of lightning as cells moved through this area - lot of cloud to ground. Nice, did you make your own symbols for use with the AH placefile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Stolze Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Sham-wow clearing in Missouri - to the west of St Louis Sun is starting to poke through here, things could get interesting later today. We have a graduation party to attend early afternoon, I will have the gear in the car before then. We received just over 1.5" of rain this morning, 2.75" including yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I had some heavy rain earlier and a decent amount of lightning that was about it.....The next couple days should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Ehhh, not much of a tornado threat on Tuesday Night. The trough goes positive, and the winds are pretty unidirectional. I could see maybe some wind and hail, but tornado threat is really low. ? You can't possibly be buying the NAM at 84h out. Not in a summer time pattern like this, and not with the NAM's unfathomable inconsistency the past several days. Please say you aren't. Because the GFS and the Euro have been pretty consistent in not agreeing with this statement. Not to mention the NAM throws the warm front unrealistically far N, which given the MCS activity expected the next few days isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 ? You can't possibly be buying the NAM at 84h out. Not in a summer time pattern like this, and not with the NAM's unfathomable inconsistency the past several days. Please say you aren't. Because the GFS and the Euro have been pretty consistent in not agreeing with this statement. Not to mention the NAM throws the warm front unrealistically far N, which given the MCS activity expected the next few days isn't going to happen. Yikes...haha. I was just looking at the NAM, and gave it a quick look, and a quick response, didnt even look at the GFS . The GFS has been much more consistent this summer than the NAM by far, and their solutions are totally different on Tuesday. That being said, the GFS looks much better in terms of a more severe threat. Euro seems to have a much slower progression...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 So, how 'bout the central High Plains tomorrow? While imperfect, the setup for parts of SW NE into NE CO is probably one of the more impressive in recent days. If LCL's don't get too out of control, I can see a few tornadoes in the moisture wrapping around the north side of the sfc low... low-level shear will be far from lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 So, how 'bout the central High Plains tomorrow? While imperfect, the setup for parts of SW NE into NE CO is probably one of the more impressive in recent days. If LCL's don't get too out of control, I can see a few tornadoes in the moisture wrapping around the north side of the sfc low... low-level shear will be far from lacking. are you free to chase all summer -- i guess the timeframe is limited -- or do you have obligations during the week (i know tomorrow is sunday. )? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Tomorrow (Sunday) on the other hand is interesting. While there is still a small threat in the IN/OH/KY range, models have seemed to back off a bit. NAM almost looks like it lost the wave it was showing on yesterday's runs. Not sure if there was some convective feedback going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Huge rains near Jacksonville Illinois last night. (about 30 miles from me) I know many roads including I-72 was closed. Radar estimates 16 inches of rain over night but I don't know if that's accurate. I do know they got a huge rain. I got 2.60in at my house over night and it was rumbling all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 are you free to chase all summer -- i guess the timeframe is limited -- or do you have obligations during the week (i know tomorrow is sunday. )? More or less. No classes over the summer, and I pretty much do my grad research on my own schedule, save for occasional meetings. If there were a really active stretch I might have to get picky so as not to neglect work stuff for too long and let it pile up, but that hasn't really been a problem this year . To be fair, I have still gone out quite a few days this year, but that's more due to the good fortune of most setups having been relatively close and being able to leave mid-afternoon. Still unsure on pursuing tomorrow, moreso because of the financial aspect than anything else, but figured I'd mention it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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