A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Beau invited me over from a group on Facebook, I had posted this 12 hour pressure graph from my Davis station today in O'Fallon, MO, just west of St. Louis. The drop was after the MCS moved through this morning. nice catach, welcome and post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 15z sref popping a 20 sig tornado contour on sunday across indiana That is worth watching. NAM really goes to town with that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 859 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ...WARNING POLYGONS AND RADAR DATA NOT BEING DISPLAYED ON WEB PAGES... DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES WITH A WEB SERVER...WARNING POLYGONS AND RADAR DATA ARE NOT CURRENTLY BEING DISPLAYED ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITES INCLUDING HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP AND HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA. TECHNICIANS IN WASHINGTON D.C. WHERE THE WEB SERVER IS LOCATED ARE CURRENTLY WORKING THE TECHNICAL ISSUES. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA APOLOGIZES FOR THIS INCONVENIENCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PASSED ALONG AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Jomo's Skew-T/Hodo look awful tomorrow on the 0z NAM. Hopefully there's enough of a CAP in place (Almost 15C in NE OK), but the NAM develops a lot of precip. around that area. EHI's are 6+, along with pretty low LCL's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 yeah that doesn't look good, hopefully it will pass to the north of here. Also hope this is because of convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 yeah that doesn't look good, hopefully it will pass to the north of here. Also hope this is because of convective feedback. For what it's worth the 18z NAM also had something pretty similar... although it's not nearly as strong of a wind field: Although the GFS isn't even coming close to what the NAM shows around there. Either way hope you stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Nice Right entrance region. This is key to getting a deeper surface low which is better for severe in almost every category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 If the 00z NAM is close to being correct - Indiana will have problems on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 If the 00z NAM is close to being correct - Indiana will have problems on Sunday. Looks like you'll get to chase close to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Anybody watching the ridiculous supercell about to rock Wichita? EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 948 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 KSC015-079-113-115-155-173-180330- /O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-110618T0330Z/ SEDGWICK KS-RENO KS-MARION KS-MCPHERSON KS-HARVEY KS-BUTLER KS- 948 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BUTLER...HARVEY...SOUTHERN MCPHERSON...SOUTHERN MARION...EASTERN RENO AND NORTHERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT... AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WIND BETWEEN 80 AND 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INMAN...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEWTON...MARION...INMAN...BUHLER...LEHIGH...MOUNDRIDGE... HILLSBORO...GOESSEL...BURRTON...HESSTON...HALSTEAD...SEDGWICK... MOUNT HOPE...ANDALE...COLWICH...VALLEY CENTER...MAIZE...WALTON... PARK CITY AND WHITEWATER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 If the 00z NAM is close to being correct - Indiana will have problems on Sunday. It seemed to push everything south. CAPE is all south, Helicity is east. There is better convective potential than in KS for sure, but im not sold yet on Sun. Looks like SREF backed off a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 a real gullywasher here. almost pea-sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 We're not currently in a watch or Mesoscale Discussion, but western Sangamon County, IL is currently under a Severe T-Storm Warning until 10:45--might be getting rocked here soon. Plus the warning is affecting New Berlin, IL in the far western part of the county--where the Sangamon County Fair is currently underway. Not a good situation for an outdoor event: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT. * AT 958 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALEXANDER...OR 6 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WAVERLY...ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKLIN...ALEXANDER...WAVERLY...NEW BERLIN...LOAMI...AUBURN... BERLIN...LOWDER...CURRAN AND THAYER. THOSE ATTENDING THE SANGAMON COUNTY FAIR IN NEW BERLIN ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 There's some strong rotation NE of Marion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 We're not currently in a watch or Mesoscale Discussion, but western Sangamon County, IL is currently under a Severe T-Storm Warning until 10:45--might be getting rocked here soon. Plus the warning is affecting New Berlin, IL in the far western part of the county--where the Sangamon County Fair is currently underway. Not a good situation for an outdoor event: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT. * AT 958 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALEXANDER...OR 6 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WAVERLY...ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKLIN...ALEXANDER...WAVERLY...NEW BERLIN...LOAMI...AUBURN... BERLIN...LOWDER...CURRAN AND THAYER. THOSE ATTENDING THE SANGAMON COUNTY FAIR IN NEW BERLIN ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 93. Looks like the forementioned storm is intensifying on radar as it approaches Springfield. And I just stepped outside my apartment--very eerily calm and little or no wind right now, but quite a lightning show to the southwest (it's unfortunate I'm in the middle of the city and don't get much of a view of the show when these storms approach). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 If the 00z NAM is close to being correct - Indiana will have problems on Sunday. I don't know...there is a TON of precip associated with that wave/sfc low that moves from IL across IN/OH from 12z to 0z that day..heating could be a problem with alot of ongoing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 GFS continues to show extreme instability for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I don't know...there is a TON of precip associated with that wave/sfc low that moves from IL across IN/OH from 12z to 0z that day..heating could be a problem with alot of ongoing precip. GFS looks different to say the least. I'm not sure which solution is more accurate but in either case, shear looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 GFS looks different to say the least. I'm not sure which solution is more accurate but in either case, shear looks pretty good. Ya I was looking at the 0z NAM lol I hope monday is capped since I will be in Orlando lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 I hope monday is capped since I will be in Orlando lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 GFS looks different to say the least. I'm not sure which solution is more accurate but in either case, shear looks pretty good. Wow GFS really brings down the PV from Canada just to the northeast east of the storm, This is kind of like the 50/50 troff in the rockies to plow east straight into the +20c temps over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 3 words after looking at the latest GFS. Is this May? Pretty stout cap still being progged for the Southern Plains, but I've got to think a significant MCS is likely with the forcing being depicted for Monday night/Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WIND BETWEEN 80 AND 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INMAN...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. I live in McPherson, and we got rocked tonight. Winds 60+mph and hail between 1.50" and 2" here while i was at work . Awesome lightning show, tons of hail, and 2.30" of rain from it I would have taken photo's but i was stuck at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 We're not currently in a watch or Mesoscale Discussion, but western Sangamon County, IL is currently under a Severe T-Storm Warning until 10:45--might be getting rocked here soon. Plus the warning is affecting New Berlin, IL in the far western part of the county--where the Sangamon County Fair is currently underway. Not a good situation for an outdoor event: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WESTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT. * AT 958 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALEXANDER...OR 6 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WAVERLY...ALSO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKLIN...ALEXANDER...WAVERLY...NEW BERLIN...LOAMI...AUBURN... BERLIN...LOWDER...CURRAN AND THAYER. THOSE ATTENDING THE SANGAMON COUNTY FAIR IN NEW BERLIN ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 93. And another warning for central/western Sangamon County--from the radar it appears this one is training off the last one: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1245 AM CDT. * AT 1135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BERLIN...OR 16 MILES WEST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LOAMI...CHATHAM...BERLIN...CURRAN AND GLENARM. THOSE ATTENDING THE SANGAMON COUNTY FAIR ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 85. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 81 AND 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 And another warning for central/western Sangamon County--from the radar it appears this one is training off the last one: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1245 AM CDT. * AT 1135 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BERLIN...OR 16 MILES WEST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LOAMI...CHATHAM...BERLIN...CURRAN AND GLENARM. THOSE ATTENDING THE SANGAMON COUNTY FAIR ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND 85. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 81 AND 95. With the 15 MPH movement of these Springfield-area storms tonight, flooding will be among the major concerns, as this ILX storm report indicates between Jacksonville and Springfield. And the same area is getting socked with more heavy rain with the latest warning: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1057 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1050 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE WAVERLY 39.62N 89.91W 06/17/2011 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR TWO FEET OF WATER OVER WAVERLY/NEW BERLIN BLACKTOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Huge, classic bow echo that has produced extensive tree and power line damage is about to enter St. Louis just before 6 am CDT Sat. MCS season is certainly up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 not a quiet morning at all here, a TON of lightning, nearly constant lightning from about 3 AM, now it's waiting on the next line to come through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 ILC027-133-157-163-189-181200- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0125.000000T0000Z-110618T1200Z/ MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL-CLINTON IL- 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON... WESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR...NORTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH AND NORTHERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT... AT 620 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLUMBIA TO FOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. TWO VERY STRONG AREAS OF ROTATION EXIST ALONG THIS LINE...THE FIRST IS NEAR MILLSTADT....THE SECOND IS NEAR WATERLOO. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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