tornadotony Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 000 NOUS43 KGID 220132 PNSGID KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 221400- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 832 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 ...CONFIRMED TORNADOES TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUNE 20TH... A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER RESULTED IN SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY JUNE 20TH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INFORMATION FOR THE TORNADOES LISTED BELOW ARE A RESULT OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEYS...AS WELL AS REPORTS RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INCLUDING STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND STORM CHASERS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT REFLECTS THE BEST TORNADO INFORMATION KNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS ARE RECEIVED. REGARDING TORNADOES NEAR ELM CREEK IN BUFFALO COUNTY...ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY. ALL INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. START AND END POINTS AS WELL AS TIMES ARE APPROXIMATIONS. MORE DETAILS WILL ALSO BECOME AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS OVER THE COMING DAYS...INCLUDING MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT DAMAGE AND PICTURES. FINAL AND OFFICIAL TORNADO INTENSITY AND TRACK INFORMATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE AVAILABLE IN THE JUNE 2011 NCDC STORM DATA PUBLICATION. NWS HASTINGS WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AND STORM CHASERS WHO ASSISTED IN PROVIDING VALUABLE SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO REPORTS DURING THIS EVENT. PHILLIPS COUNTY KANSAS START/END: 4 MILES W/NW OF LONG ISLAND TO 4 NW OF LONG ISLAND RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 90 MPH TIME: 255 PM - 258 PM CDT HARLAN COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 6 MILES S OF STAMFORD TO 6 MILES N/NE OF STAMFORD RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: SKIPPED ALONG A 12 MILE PATH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 95 MPH TIME: 305 PM - 332 PM CDT BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA INFORMATION CONTINUES TO BE COMPILED REGARDING THE TORNADO REPORTS RECEIVED FROM THE ELM CREEK AREA...AND DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE TORNADO OCCURRED. BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 2 MILES NW OF AMHERST TO 4 MILES N OF AMHERST RATING: EF-3 PATH LENGTH: 4 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 3/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 160 MPH TIME: 420 PM - 430 PM CDT BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 3 MILES SE OF PLEASANTON TO 2 MILES E/NE OF PLEASANTON RATING: EF-0 PATH LENGTH: SKIPPED ALONG A 3 MILE PATH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 70 MPH TIME: 425 PM - 440 PM CDT SHERMAN COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 6 MILES SW OF ROCKVILLE TO 4 MILES SW OF ROCKVILLE RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 200 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 120 MPH TIME: 446 PM - 454 PM CDT HOWARD COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN A FIELD 5 W/SW OF FARWELL RATING: EF-0 TIME: 505 PM CDT HAMILTON COUNTY START/END: 6 MILES S/SW HAMPTON TO 4 MILES N/NE HAMPTON RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 125 MPH TIME: 523 PM - 543 PM CDT VALLEY COUNTY START/END: 5 MILES S OF NORTH LOUP TO 4 MILES S OF NORTH LOUP RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: 1 MILE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 90 MPH TIME: 535 PM - 540 PM CDT YORK/POLK COUNTY START/END: 4 MILES SW OF BRADSHAW TO 4 MILES E OF POLK RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 17 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 130 MPH TIME: 540 PM - 602 PM CDT POLK COUNTY START/END: 4 MILES E OF POLK TO 6 MILES W/NW OF OSCEOLA RATING: EF-3 PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/2 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 140 MPH TIME: 602 PM - 622 PM CDT $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 000 NOUS43 KGID 220132 PNSGID KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 221400- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 832 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 ...CONFIRMED TORNADOES TRACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUNE 20TH... A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER RESULTED IN SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY JUNE 20TH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE INFORMATION FOR THE TORNADOES LISTED BELOW ARE A RESULT OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEYS...AS WELL AS REPORTS RECEIVED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INCLUDING STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND STORM CHASERS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT REFLECTS THE BEST TORNADO INFORMATION KNOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MORE DETAILS ARE RECEIVED. REGARDING TORNADOES NEAR ELM CREEK IN BUFFALO COUNTY...ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY. ALL INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. START AND END POINTS AS WELL AS TIMES ARE APPROXIMATIONS. MORE DETAILS WILL ALSO BECOME AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS OVER THE COMING DAYS...INCLUDING MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT DAMAGE AND PICTURES. FINAL AND OFFICIAL TORNADO INTENSITY AND TRACK INFORMATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE AVAILABLE IN THE JUNE 2011 NCDC STORM DATA PUBLICATION. NWS HASTINGS WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AND STORM CHASERS WHO ASSISTED IN PROVIDING VALUABLE SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO REPORTS DURING THIS EVENT. PHILLIPS COUNTY KANSAS START/END: 4 MILES W/NW OF LONG ISLAND TO 4 NW OF LONG ISLAND RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 90 MPH TIME: 255 PM - 258 PM CDT HARLAN COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 6 MILES S OF STAMFORD TO 6 MILES N/NE OF STAMFORD RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: SKIPPED ALONG A 12 MILE PATH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 95 MPH TIME: 305 PM - 332 PM CDT BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA INFORMATION CONTINUES TO BE COMPILED REGARDING THE TORNADO REPORTS RECEIVED FROM THE ELM CREEK AREA...AND DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE THAN ONE TORNADO OCCURRED. BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 2 MILES NW OF AMHERST TO 4 MILES N OF AMHERST RATING: EF-3 PATH LENGTH: 4 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 3/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 160 MPH TIME: 420 PM - 430 PM CDT BUFFALO COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 3 MILES SE OF PLEASANTON TO 2 MILES E/NE OF PLEASANTON RATING: EF-0 PATH LENGTH: SKIPPED ALONG A 3 MILE PATH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 70 MPH TIME: 425 PM - 440 PM CDT SHERMAN COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: 6 MILES SW OF ROCKVILLE TO 4 MILES SW OF ROCKVILLE RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 200 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 120 MPH TIME: 446 PM - 454 PM CDT HOWARD COUNTY NEBRASKA START/END: BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN A FIELD 5 W/SW OF FARWELL RATING: EF-0 TIME: 505 PM CDT HAMILTON COUNTY START/END: 6 MILES S/SW HAMPTON TO 4 MILES N/NE HAMPTON RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 125 MPH TIME: 523 PM - 543 PM CDT VALLEY COUNTY START/END: 5 MILES S OF NORTH LOUP TO 4 MILES S OF NORTH LOUP RATING: EF-1 PATH LENGTH: 1 MILE MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 90 MPH TIME: 535 PM - 540 PM CDT YORK/POLK COUNTY START/END: 4 MILES SW OF BRADSHAW TO 4 MILES E OF POLK RATING: EF-2 PATH LENGTH: 17 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/4 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 130 MPH TIME: 540 PM - 602 PM CDT POLK COUNTY START/END: 4 MILES E OF POLK TO 6 MILES W/NW OF OSCEOLA RATING: EF-3 PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 1/2 OF A MILE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED: 140 MPH TIME: 602 PM - 622 PM CDT $$ Four EF3 tornadoes with yesterdays tornado outbreak. The PDS tornado watch did verify despite fairly low probs(10% hatched). NWS in Goodland an Hastings did a really good job in surveying the damage. Did you see any of the damage photos they were pretty impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Gust Fronts collide head on. Anyone know whats up with that? Was one of those a back propagation gravity wave? Maybe one passed under the other or something. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 LOT will be out surveying tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Our pics of yesterday morning's shelf cloud in Tippecanoe County just southeast of LAF Nice pics Brandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdmwx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Low level SR helicity/shear maxes out right where the nice bow formed south of Dallas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Here's another pic of yesterday morning's storms from WLFI viewer Jeff Bradley: http://interactives.wlfi.com/photomojo/gallery/551/1/june-20-storms-flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 A small vid I took on my I phone earier, storms were about 30 miles to the SE at this point.I am trying to get better resolution, but it's not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I should have my chasing license revoked for my performance yesterday. Wasn't taking the setup seriously because of the extremely screwed-up flow aloft, but had to get a hotel in Grand Island the night before because of Sunday's chase (bust for me). Woke up and decided to give it a shot since I was already there, but didn't spend much time forecasting or planning, and paid the price. Basically played catch-up on every single cell through the course of the day, arriving on storms after their best tornadoes. Needless to say, I should've just sat patiently in GRI and pounced on the York Co. storm at initiation. Would've been my career best chase and I could've been on my way home earlier to boot. After monitoring the flood of painful imagery on my FB feed the past 24 hours, I'd rank yesterday as one of the top 10 chase days of the past decade, and I'm still in shock at its over-performance. Anyway, here are my scraps (which I fully acknowledge would constitute a pretty good catch on just about any other day): NW KS storm (you know, the one with hours of highly-visible rain-free wedges until right when I arrived) -- possible elephant trunk near the left edge of the rain shaft: Pano stitch of entire storm: Possible rain-wrapped wedge, still unsure on this: Slender cone/elephant trunk with the last occlusion as the storm croaked: Stovepipe near Pleasanton (NE of Kearney) out my window while searching fruitlessly for a decent view: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I was kind of confused by that as well until I seen on radar a very small rotation in cell over Rochester but it was short lived. Well anyways great lightning show got about 0.25" and my 50 second downpour. Looks like the Sterling hts area recieved about 1.5" of needed rain in the last hour Ill confirm, did receive about 1.8" of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Ill confirm, did receive about 1.8" of rainfall. Yeah based upon the ponding on I-94, the deluge that occurred when I left home, and radar estimates I'd say that a good portion of Eastern Wayne County and North from there received around 1.5-2.0". Some places up near Port Huron received closer to 3.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Chasing today in Western OH/Eastern IN. My goal is to put myself on the nose of the the Mid-Level disturbance and see what pops up. Not expecting much tornado-wise, but I'll settle for some nice storm structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Ill confirm, did receive about 1.8" of rainfall. Good thing the ground was dry or else my street and lawn would've flooded. Was a helluva lightning show too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 http://news.yahoo.co...idwest-25695965 Tornado ripped train off its tracks in Nebraska from Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 A coworker of mine won't be making it today because a tree fell on their house. Sounds like excessive tree damage around there area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Good thing the ground was dry or else my street and lawn would've flooded. Was a helluva lightning show too. Amazing on how Macomb/Oakland line was a sharp cut off. Some spots in Central Oakland/Western Wayne recorded No rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SPC moved the slight risk farther west for today in Indiana, now pretty much covering the eastern half of the state. Also a 30% shading for wind in SE MI and NW OH: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SPC moved the slight risk farther west for today in Indiana, now pretty much covering the eastern half of the state. Also a 30% shading for wind in SE MI and NW OH: http://www.spc.noaa....k_1300_wind.gif Hmm maybe I won't sleep when I get home today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SPC moved the slight risk farther west for today in Indiana, now pretty much covering the eastern half of the state. Also a 30% shading for wind in SE MI and NW OH: http://www.spc.noaa....k_1300_wind.gif Also moved the 2% tornado shading north into MI, which isn't too surprising based on the 12Z sounding at DTX. It is more favorable than ILN's, which means I'll probably head to NW Ohio today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 After monitoring the flood of painful imagery on my FB feed the past 24 hours, I'd rank yesterday as one of the top 10 chase days of the past decade, and I'm still in shock at its over-performance. Anyway, here are my scraps (which I fully acknowledge would constitute a pretty good catch on just about any other day): nice shots.. don't be hard on yourself. at least you take good photos unlike a lot of other chasers these days. i feel like everyone's memories are becoming shorter as we move along in time., i.e., "this is the best in" .. and granted, I'm not connected to the community like you are -- but while it was a sweet day but there will be more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SPC moved the slight risk farther west for today in Indiana, now pretty much covering the eastern half of the state. Also a 30% shading for wind in SE MI and NW OH: http://www.spc.noaa....k_1300_wind.gif I like the HRRR blowing up the line almost right on top of me between 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 nice shots.. don't be hard on yourself. at least you take good photos unlike a lot of other chasers these days. i feel like everyone's memories are becoming shorter as we move along in time., i.e., "this is the best in" .. and granted, I'm not connected to the community like you are -- but while it was a sweet day but there will be more like it. Agree, his shots are always quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Agree, his shots are always quality. Brett is well on his way to being one of the go to names in the true storm photo field IMO. I'm sure it's frustrating if you feel you missed the bigger play. I've only seen shots from Umscheid on the first cell.. I'm sure there were others on it but not many based on SN. I would have been happy with the backside view in my two weeks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Also moved the 2% tornado shading north into MI, which isn't too surprising based on the 12Z sounding at DTX. It is more favorable than ILN's, which means I'll probably head to NW Ohio today. Have fun. Outside the I-75 Cities (TOL/BG/FDY) there's actually fairly decent chasing terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 360 ACUS11 KWNS 221546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221546 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...LOWER MI...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221546Z - 221745Z STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWER CU AND WEAK STORMS FORMING OVER WRN MI INTO WRN INDIANA NEAR A DRYLINE. AMPLE MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE E WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CIN HAS BEEN REMOVED...OVERALL LAPSE RATES PROFILES ARE WEAK. THEREFORE...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WITH HEATING. DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH 30 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING TO OVER 50 KT IN THE MID LEVELS. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE COLD POOLS AND MOVE NEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS REQUIRING A WATCH. ..JEWELL.. 06/22/2011 ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 41788295 41128384 40698474 40448538 40368633 41438602 42438589 43128593 43928607 44148479 44238346 44138278 43558235 42328235 41788295 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Have fun. Outside the I-75 Cities (TOL/BG/FDY) there's actually fairly decent chasing terrain. Agreed. Very underrated chase terrain west of 75...even has road grids in many places! I'll likely stay along US 33 north of Grand Lake St Marys as I need to be back in Dayton by 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1152 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011 UPDATE AS OF 15Z...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO NORTHWEST INDIANA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN ADVANCE OF THIS AREA ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 70S ALREADY...WHILE MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS BEEN SLOWER TO WARM BENEATH EARLY OVERCAST SKIES. THIS AREA OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A LOOK AT THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING DOES SHOW A WARM LAYER OF AIR IN THE 650-750MB LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 9C. ALTHOUGH THIS WARM AIR WAS A LITTLE CONCERNING AND UPDRAFTS REMAIN FAIRLY SMALL TO OUR WEST...STORM TOPS ARE ALREADY MAKING IT TO 25-30 KFT AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WITH THAT SAID...SPC HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND STRONG WIND FIELD MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. STORMS THUS FAR ARE EXHIBITING DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SUPERCELL STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ALTHOUGH THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SO WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE GREATEST THREAT TO BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. PEAK TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 2PM-6PM WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30-40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 30% wind probs expanded eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 [/font] That may be the first time I've seen a MD with a dryline around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 here is another photo taken from my phone back on the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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