Siberian Express Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 This is yet another example of how bass ackwards our national priorities are. The NWS internet bandwith situation is unexcusable between the pages being down and offices not having enough bandwith to view storms on other radar sites. Well it's back now, from 12:40 through about 2:00pm out. Sent an e-mail to the WFO and I'll probably e-mail my congressional delegation i.e. funding or lack thereof. Lucky it's not a huge threat, at the moment at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We're a lot more unstable than I expected to get today, hmm... Storms appear to be trying to get going around Lansing. My guess is we'll probably get fairly widespread coverage, with some of the storms going severe due to the high levels of instability. being outdoors its ridiculously humid! you "would" think some storms would fire up...I guess not. SEMI... "a pleasant place to live" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We're a lot more unstable than I expected to get today, hmm... Storms appear to be trying to get going around Lansing. My guess is we'll probably get fairly widespread coverage, with some of the storms going severe due to the high levels of instability. The HRRR pointed that out earlier. Lack of wind shear looks to be an issue, also I think a cap is still in place. Still looks conditional ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The HRRR pointed that out earlier. Lack of wind shear looks to be an issue, also I think a cap is still in place. Still looks conditional ATM. We had the same thing here in the Dayton area, a few cells popped to about 10,000 ft and fizzled. A shortwave is working our way through Cincy and is providing lift to overcome the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Nice wind max heading for WFO MKX. 60 kt down to 300 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cells in WI taking off with CU building back into western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Probably a low topped tornado producing supercell just east of Montello, Wisconsin. Very nice velocity signature despite the shallow nature of reflectivity. The dBZ levels spiked right as the couplet tighten, one of your more classic signatures for a low topped cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Couplets forming just NE of the MKX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Another nice looking cell in northern Dodge County, Wisconsin, near Fox Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Boy, I don't know if it's a bad sampling or not, but the meso on the Green Lake County storm just really exploded...delta-v of 121kt at 5600ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Boy, I don't know if it's a bad sampling or not, but the meso on the Green Lake County storm just really exploded...delta-v of 121kt at 5600ft... I mean it looks a little funny, but it also makes sense. Along a nice thata-e boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 SREF has been showing modest tor probs in Wisconsin. Given that and observational trends, that is probably going to be where the best chance of a tornado is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 SREF has been showing modest tor probs in Wisconsin. Given that and observational trends, that is probably going to be where the best chance of a tornado is today. It's also been showing that sleeper area in southern Illinois, right ahead of the MCV that SPC referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Probably a low topped tornado producing supercell just east of Montello, Wisconsin. Very nice velocity signature despite the shallow nature of reflectivity. The dBZ levels spiked right as the couplet tighten, one of your more classic signatures for a low topped cell. Same just east of Wabasha, MN.....low topped sups must make predicting a tornado very, very hard. They might not produce a large wedge, but if one hits your home, you'd know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Sometimes I think it's so weird that 3 km storm-relative helicity is so important for the formation of mesocyclones. It's an odd value. It is computed based on a right-moving cell motion. In reality, cells start out going along with the 850mb-300mb average wind (or something like that). They turn to the right given some circumstances-- development of a mesocyclone is one of those circumstances. And who picked 3km rather than 2km or 4km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Same just east of Wabasha, MN.....low topped sups must make predicting a tornado very, very hard. They might not produce a large wedge, but if one hits your home, you'd know it. Parameters are more than favorable for significant tornadoes in Wisconsin. 0-1km shear values are in excess of 20 kt over much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 CU really bubbling up over downtown, bank clock reading 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Cell in Iroquois County already showing weak spin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I'm in between Tornado watches...but storms developing to my SW moving NNE..the gap in the watches of nothern IL may be filled soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 212047Z - 212215Z STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER MI...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU INCREASING OVER SWRN MI WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR RETURNING NWD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY COOL...DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION. 850 MB WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 25 KT OVER SWRN MI...HELPING TO ENHANCE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE A BIT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CELLS AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2011 ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Dull thunder on the north side, not seeing much on radar yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tornado watch lower michigan till 10pm CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 FOND DU LAC WI- 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN FOND DU LAC COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT... AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIPON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO SOUTHEAST OF RIPON AROUND 355 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hopefully it misses grande cheese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 they should add some color to mich http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Bah everything blowing up just east of town. Looks like I'm going to miss this round. The temp and humidity went from pleasant at noon to oppressive now. Certainly feels like a storms coming but initiation is to the east. Oh well atleast I got a great view of the towers going up from my office window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Impressed with this low pressure and how strong it is. Also it's moving really slow and would guess that if storms do start getting going around here they will be slow movers. Ample moisture coming from the south to north right towards SE MI. Looks like our best chance for severe weather so far this year. We always do well when all of the parameters aren't neccessarily all there. Lansing further west look to be in the best position as they are closer to the low and the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like DTX opted out of the watch...the SPC mesoscale discussion and DTX AFD were at odds with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We were on the Milwaukee severe storms back when they were in Illinois, but decided not the run with them into Wisconsin. Back home now waiting to see if the small cells SW of Peoria try to develop further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Large towers growing overhead. These will soon blow up but our area will be spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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