OKpowdah Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 My guess is, given the LCLs and 0-1km shear along with the inverted-V sounding, that the "tornado" was actually a gustnado. But who knows. could be. I've also heard that spotters in that area are a little quick to call stuff in good call on OK's failure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 SBCAPE now up to 4000 j/kg in extreme northern IL/southern WI but only MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg. little cell on I-80 west of Princeton. best low-level moisture is along and I-39 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Ok, seriously? Two or three hours, the temp in MKE was around 60 with fog. Now, at 10, the temp is 82, with dews into the 70s. Pretty clear the warm front just moved through. Seems pretty primed for action. Looks like it's back into the 60s at MKE, so it might have just been a temporary spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Looks like it's back into the 60s at MKE, so it might have just been a temporary spike. http://www.weather.g...story/KMKE.html lol WF near Kenosha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 IKK is 86/75 with most of northeast IL with dew points in the low-mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 just looking at the composite radar here (courtesy of the nws, via screenshot from my desktop), a system this magnitude makes you humble in the extent of mother nature's fury. I have never seen such a squall stretching from the northern end of Nebraska to central Oklahoma that was curved with the isobars like this 01z or 8:00PM CDT last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 could be. I've also heard that spotters in that area are a little quick to call stuff in good call on OK's failure lol How much did you lose in your bet with the people down in Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 How much did you lose in your bet with the people down in Norman? lol I didn't make any bets thankfully. So just my dignity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 lol I didn't make any bets thankfully. So just my dignity I've made worse calls before... no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Either way the talk over whether something did or didn't deserve a PDS watch is boring, only the nerdiest of the weather nerds notice anyways. I figure they issue that kind of stuff based on potential anyway... if it looks like it's going to happen, then I would figure it prudent for them to put out the warning, PDS or otherwise... Look at it this way...if you think you see smoke, are you going to wait until a room is fully engulfed before you warn anyone? Yeah, maybe the storms didn't happen as "expected' but the NWS met seemed to think there was enough justification, and on some level the weather bore it out... I agree with Alek... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormchaser21 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tornado intercept that me and a buddy got yesterday west of York Nebraska. Multivortex Tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I've made worse calls before... no worries who thought there would be no convection at all (or close to it) in central OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hey now, lol, I am not a nerd. I love the weather and was frankly a little disappointed nothing really came to be in OK last night. Tell me about it. Driving around for 6-7 hours only to see nickel-sized hail (and a nice rainbow, to be fair) was a bit disappointing. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Headed home, MAY go after some cells if they look decent, but not expecting much. New MD just issued: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...ERN IA...MUCH OF SRN WI...CNTRL AND NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211645Z - 211915Z A GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER WRN IA...WITH A BROADLY CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR WITH THETA-E AXIS FROM SERN MN INTO NRN IL. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION WITH SOMEWHAT DRY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB. AREAS OF HEATING...ALONG WITH GENERALLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS...SHOULD RESULT IN AN ARC OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE/STRENGTHEN NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WIND PROFILES VEER WITH HEIGHT BUT ARE GENERALLY MARGINAL...YET SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MARGINAL HAIL WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS...AND A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW NWD MOVING BOWS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH TIME WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Tornado intercept that me and a buddy got yesterday west of York Nebraska. Multivortex Tornado Nice video, though I don't see a multivortex tornado... +1 to the driver for trying to keep the car out of the road, with more focus on making sure you're not in the way vs. trying to watch the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 4500 surface CAPE here in northern IN. Notice that there is a tongue of higher helicity along the MS Valley. Will be interesting to see what transpires today wrt storm mode and coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Nice video, though I don't see a multivortex tornado... +1 to the driver for trying to keep the car out of the road, with more focus on making sure you're not in the way vs. trying to watch the tornado. It seems like every tornado is multi-vortex these days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 nice meso scale update from Izzi STILL SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THE DECAYING OVERNIGHT MCS AND ITSLINGERING COLD POOL LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAPID DEMISE OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MCS AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN MIXING OUT OF THE REMNANT COLD POOL. SPC RUC BASED MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OVERNIGHT MCS DID OVERTURN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE GRADUALLY DECREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT MCV OVER CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. FAIRLY IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MISSOURI WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK SURFACE FEATURES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO FIND DISTINCT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DOES LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ANTICIPATING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFICATION OF MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL RAMP UP IN INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. FAIRLY POTENT 500MB JET IS STILL IN THE AREA WITH REGIONAL VWPS SHOWING 50-60KT WINDS RESULTING IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOWER LCLS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE ATMOSPHERE WAS LESS DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT MCS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A DECREASING TORNADO THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 nice meso scale update from Izzi Great update. Hard to argue with any of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 For all you Wisconsin people out there, the fixed layer significant tornado parameter is up to 3 near Madison Wisconsin. However the effective layer STP is not. (I wonder why there's such a difference.) This may be my last day of virtual storm chasing. The contest is almost over and I think I've got enough chases to qualify. I'm not sure if I can do much to micro-manage my storm chasing today. I wonder if southeast Michigan is going to get storms. 3500 CAPE and moisture convergence is high, SCP=4. Watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 211756Z - 211900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF AN MCV ACROSS SERN MO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO IL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND AREA PROFILERS INDICATE 40-50 KT MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES...AND SOME CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO NNEWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MARGINAL WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH TIME...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS AND EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100 M2/S2 MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 06/21/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Well that's nice....MPX and ARX radars are off line at the moment. Hope it's a short disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Updated 12z SPC WRF appears to have a nice little bow feature in Illinois, going from central IL up to NW IN, this evening from about 22z to 01z. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 who thought there would be no convection at all (or close to it) in central OK? Yeah that was defin surprising. I would've thought that with temperatures soaring so high and with the trough so deep and amplified we'd get at least a squall line down through OK. There was some shortwave ridging behind a lead wave that probably did it in further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We're a lot more unstable than I expected to get today, hmm... Storms appear to be trying to get going around Lansing. My guess is we'll probably get fairly widespread coverage, with some of the storms going severe due to the high levels of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Dang, TOR warnings and the MSP NWS web site appears not to be functioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 some cu trying to get going east of GBG/MQB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Dang, TOR warnings and the MSP NWS web site appears not to be functioning This is yet another example of how bass ackwards our national priorities are. The NWS internet bandwith situation is unexcusable between the pages being down and offices not having enough bandwith to view storms on other radar sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 We're a lot more unstable than I expected to get today, hmm... Storms appear to be trying to get going around Lansing. My guess is we'll probably get fairly widespread coverage, with some of the storms going severe due to the high levels of instability. They fizzled out... RUC and HRRR are in a agreement with a line of storms moving NE into SEMI around 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUAHusker Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 I've never heard a chaser sound more bored while filming a tornado.... Not that there's anything wrong with that - better than the orgasmic screaming. Hey..That was my chase partner!! Just trying to act like we've been there...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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