tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The SPC WRF has a major supercell careening across nrn IL from 13-16z. That would be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The SPC WRF has a major supercell careening across nrn IL from 13-16z. That would be interesting... It moves that thing almost due N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It moves that thing almost due N... It's latched to the warm front. Given that the GFS and NAM already would have a sfc-based environment with 2500-3500J/kg CAPE feeding into that thing by 15z and it would be on the boundary, that cell would be potentially disastrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 There it is on the NMM at 15z, only Chicago instead of Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 As previously mentioned, myself and kevlon62 ended up with 3 tors today. The first was a nice funnel, which eventually touched down as a very fine/needle/pencil tornado. The second was partially rain wrapped from our position. The third was the longer track of the three. This tornado was also multi-vortex for a time. Along the way we came across tree damage, snapped power poles, and an irrigation system that was twisted and flipped. A few pics of this tor (Initial stages) are below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Great pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 As previously mentioned, myself and kevlon62 ended up with 3 tors today. The first was a nice funnel, which eventually touched down as a very fine/needle/pencil tornado. The second was partially rain wrapped from our position. The third was the longer track of the three. This tornado was also multi-vortex for a time. Along the way we came across tree damage, snapped power poles, and an irrigation system that was twisted and flipped. A few pics of this tor (Initial stages) are below... Nice! You can see the nice RFD cut knifing in from the left from your position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 So, I guess Southeastern Michigan isn't looking so hot today as far as severe weather goes? CAPE seems to be lower than previously forecasted... I don't know if there'll be other dynamics that are going to make up for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 As previously mentioned, myself and kevlon62 ended up with 3 tors today. The first was a nice funnel, which eventually touched down as a very fine/needle/pencil tornado. The second was partially rain wrapped from our position. The third was the longer track of the three. This tornado was also multi-vortex for a time. Along the way we came across tree damage, snapped power poles, and an irrigation system that was twisted and flipped. A few pics of this tor (Initial stages) are below... Looks like another solid adventure, thanks for sharing buddy. On the local front, the day is starting off unstable right from the get go with LIs around -7 and sbcape around 1500 and increasin. Given the lack of cloud cover in the immediate vicinity we should be well on our way to eroding the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 75 here right now... My son's weather station is reporting: Temp: 75 Humidity: 80% Dew Point: 68 Wind: SSW @ 7 It is sticky and muggy outside. The storms that moved across Iowa last night went N into Wisconsin. Looks like we either are, or will be firmly in the warm sector. Hopefully there are no capping issues, but so far, all the TV mets that I watched this morning (7, 5, and 32) are saying "strong storms" with a "small possibility of severe" . I get the feeling all of the big stuff may be north into far N IL and S WI.... Time to go read LOT's page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 75 here right now... My son's weather station is reporting: Temp: 75 Humidity: 80% Dew Point: 68 Wind: SSW @ 7 It is sticky and muggy outside. The storms that moved across Iowa last night went N into Wisconsin. Looks like we either are, or will be firmly in the warm sector. Hopefully there are no capping issues, but so far, all the TV mets that I watched this morning (7, 5, and 32) are saying "strong storms" with a "small possibility of severe" . I get the feeling all of the big stuff may be north into far N IL and S WI.... Time to go read LOT's page... MKE is in the upper 50s and MDW is 76, warm front is right near the WI/IL line right now so our area is now just into the warm sector. We are capped for the time being but I think we erode it rather quick and see storm lift north by mid afternoon with another line or MCS pushing in from the west later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 75 here right now... My son's weather station is reporting: Temp: 75 Humidity: 80% Dew Point: 68 Wind: SSW @ 7 It is sticky and muggy outside. The storms that moved across Iowa last night went N into Wisconsin. Looks like we either are, or will be firmly in the warm sector. Hopefully there are no capping issues, but so far, all the TV mets that I watched this morning (7, 5, and 32) are saying "strong storms" with a "small possibility of severe" . I get the feeling all of the big stuff may be north into far N IL and S WI.... Time to go read LOT's page... It looks like SPC moved the greatest tornado risk into Soutthern and Central Wisconsin, but even that is minimal. I half expected perhaps an upgrade to moderate for someone today, but it looks like the setup is slightly less impressive than it looked yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 According to DTX's AFD, the warm front is now progged to moves slower then previously expected....lowering SEMI's chances for severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 According to DTX's AFD, the warm front is now progged to moves slower then previously expected....lowering SEMI's chances for severe wx. Is Heavy Rain chances still good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 According to DTX's AFD, the warm front is now progged to moves slower then previously expected....lowering SEMI's chances for severe wx. This isn't surprising, it's been moving slower than the models have been predicting over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE centered over my house back home in northern IL with 0-6km shear currently between 35-45kts in the area, more further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 nice shots chicago storm -- props for seemingly not taking photos from inside a car.. or at least stopping. photography/videography is a lost art with many chasers these days it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 2500 j/kg of SBCAPE centered over my house back home in northern IL with 0-6km shear currently between 35-45kts in the area, more further west. jumped to 3500 now centered over McHenry County, the juice is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 So, I am friends on facebook with the NWS in Tulsa and bluntly asked them why a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued in Oklahoma last night, when honestly those storms in Western OK never happened. Here was their response: Amber - The initial watch was a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch because the initial storms were expected to have very large hail and hurricane force thunderstorm winds. That combination can be very dangerous, especially to people that may be ...outdoors, in vehicles, or non-sturdy structures. That is the reason for that wording. The storms were a little slow to form because of a strong cap in place, but once they developed, they did produce some larger hail over central Oklahoma and caused some wind damage into eastern Oklahoma, as well. Personally, all we got in Tulsa was some strong winds of 60 mph and piece size hail....you be the judge whether or not this PDS was warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 So, I am friends on facebook with the NWS in Tulsa and bluntly asked them why a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued in Oklahoma last night, when honestly those storms in Western OK never happened. Here was their response: Amber - The initial watch was a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch because the initial storms were expected to have very large hail and hurricane force thunderstorm winds. That combination can be very dangerous, especially to people that may be ...outdoors, in vehicles, or non-sturdy structures. That is the reason for that wording. The storms were a little slow to form because of a strong cap in place, but once they developed, they did produce some larger hail over central Oklahoma and caused some wind damage into eastern Oklahoma, as well. Personally, all we got in Tulsa was some strong winds of 60 mph and piece size hail....you be the judge whether or not this PDS was warranted. it was just a watch.. there was potential. i dont think it's worth too much debate since the issuance is fairly subjective to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 it was just a watch.. there was potential. i dont think it's worth too much debate since the issuance is fairly subjective to begin with. Either way the talk over whether something did or didn't deserve a PDS watch is boring, only the nerdiest of the weather nerds notice anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Either way the talk over whether something did or didn't deserve a PDS watch is boring, only the nerdiest of the weather nerds notice anyways. ha, yes.. that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hey now, lol, I am not a nerd. I love the weather and was frankly a little disappointed nothing really came to be in OK last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The PDS wording got me all excited:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Obviously a large bust in OK. There was a tornado reported by two spotters near Eliasville,TX at 1:46z (SPC 6/20 reports page) Here's the 00z observed sounding from Fort Worth, TX (SPC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 mike umscheid photo: http://www.underthemeso.com/chasemode.php Wedge tornado looking south-southeast from along Highway 283 north of Hill City on approach to Edmond-Densmore at around 2:00pm CDT on 20 June 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Obviously a large bust in OK. There was a tornado reported by two spotters near Eliasville,TX at 1:46z (SPC 6/20 reports page) Here's the 00z observed sounding from Fort Worth, TX (SPC) My guess is, given the LCLs and 0-1km shear along with the inverted-V sounding, that the "tornado" was actually a gustnado. But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 According to DTX's AFD, the warm front is now progged to moves slower then previously expected....lowering SEMI's chances for severe wx. Sounds like they're going with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 My guess is, given the LCLs and 0-1km shear along with the inverted-V sounding, that the "tornado" was actually a gustnado. But who knows. Ok, seriously? Two or three hours, the temp in MKE was around 60 with fog. Now, at 10, the temp is 82, with dews into the 70s. Pretty clear the warm front just moved through. Seems pretty primed for action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Sounds like they're going with the NAM. There's enough clearing going on attm that I believe there will still be a decent severe threat once the warm front finally makes its push early this evening. Wind fields aren't great but I think 30 kts of 0-6 km shear will be sufficient for some organization if we can build some instability, which it appears is in the process of occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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