TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 SREF is starting to pick up on some tornado threats during the Sunday - Monday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Just pushed out severe analysis for today, 17 June, seeing highest threats for severe weather from Topeka, KS to Columbia, MO to Joplin, MO. Convective values across this areas are SFC CAPE 3500 j/kg, LI's -9, 0-1KM SRH 175 m/s. Convective gust potential around 75 knots and hail up to 1.3" possible. Seeing just slight chance of isolated weak tornado in this region. Thoughts? Detail Analysis http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 12z GFS has trended notably more amplified. Would be a nice late evening / nocturnal MCS Monday, and possibly more significant severe threat mid afternoon Tuesday for OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 12z GFS has trended notably more amplified. Would be a nice late evening / nocturnal MCS Monday, and possibly more significant severe threat mid afternoon Tuesday for OK What do you think of the tornado probabilities in OK for Tuesday? Looks more linear/MCS to me, but either way looks fairly significant for late June. The central Plains/Great Lakes is a whole other story. Wicked storms up there Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Yeah, 09z SREF is kickin a 20 on sig tor ingredients already for Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 I was going to post about how I hoped the HRRR was wrong earlier but lost power again, so now power is back on and the HRRR is still showing a complex developing across W MO into far SE KS today/tonight. CU field over western MO and eastern KS is blowing up :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 What do you think of the tornado probabilities in OK for Tuesday? Looks more linear/MCS to me, but either way looks fairly significant for late June. The central Plains/Great Lakes is a whole other story. Wicked storms up there Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Yeah, not an exceptional amount of directional shear for the most part, and LCLs will be pretty high. Monday night might offer something as the LLJ powers up, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 I was going to post about how I hoped the HRRR was wrong earlier but lost power again, so now power is back on and the HRRR is still showing a complex developing across W MO into far SE KS today/tonight. CU field over western MO and eastern KS is blowing up :- I'm in SW MO today and would love to get some action, but I hope it spares you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 HPC is noticing... THE 00Z ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITHA SHRTWV CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DAYS 3-4 MON-TUE BUT THERE IS MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR SUCH A SOLUTION IN THE 00Z ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO JUST 12Z HRS AGO. BLENDING THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AGAIN HELPS TO TONE DOWN THE MORE UNCERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE ECMWF SOLN. SYNOPTIC SETUP APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF THUNDERSTORMS... POSSIBLY SEVERE... FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD. 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OVER COLORADO EARLY IN THE WEEK. SEE SPC FOR MORE INFO REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 I'm in SW MO today and would love to get some action, but I hope it spares you guys. Nice. I wouldn't mind the rain or even thunder and lightning but high wind would be really bad with a lot of projectiles still laying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Theres no doubt about that JoMo we definitely have enough projectiles laying on the ground around here and still attached to skeletons of buildings. So do any of these future days look terribly tornadic for us in the joplin mo area .??? any thoughts guys or girls ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Theres no doubt about that JoMo we definitely have enough projectiles laying on the ground around here and still attached to skeletons of buildings. So do any of these future days look terribly tornadic for us in the joplin mo area .??? any thoughts guys or girls ???? It smells like spoiled food and death around some of the areas still :-\ I don't know about during the next week, but SPC just increased the tornado risk to 5% just north of us, and the wind risk is now 30%. IF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO...STORMS MAY PROPAGATE IN A SWD DIRECTION...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING NRN AR. MODELS SUGGEST 22-00Z THEMOST LIKELY TIME FOR INITIATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 cool radar loop of the KLOT 88d as you can see the boundary stalling NW-SE across the area and possibly lifting north a bit on the last few scans but looks like it shouldn't move that much for now. Some decent instability south and west of this boundary (ARR is 82/66 and DKB is 82/68. Curious as it what happens with any thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 cool radar loop of the KLOT 88d as you can see the boundary stalling NW-SE across the area and possibly lifting north a bit on the last few scans but looks like it shouldn't move that much for now. Some decent instability south and west of this boundary (ARR is 82/66 and DKB is 82/68. Curious as it what happens with any thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. i posted about that in the June thread, didn't think there was much severe threat, but parameters aren't terrible further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 i posted about that in the June thread, didn't think there was much severe threat, but parameters aren't terrible further south. slight risk of severe just along and southwest of the boundary so I figured I'd post here but ya I don't see much coming from it although low level lapse rates are pretty nice along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 I know it JoMo it is disheartening when you can still go to certain places to work here in town and still smell the rooting food and death in the air , I still think that they will find more people as they uncover and load up more debris too unfortunately and then they will post it as so many more died from injuries or an infecion in the hospital . If they could just tell the truth about the situation , yeah it might a bit more but the families would at least know the truth no matter what gievn the event and scale I think it is a given that they do find more victims.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Neat little vort max on wv, as well as on mesoanalysis over MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Nice cluster of supercells developing over the Front Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 maybe someone posted this already, but anyone notice the meso hurricane that the NAM and Euro want to take from Missouri all the way to the east coast by Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 15z sref popping a 20 sig tornado contour on sunday across indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Storm north of Pueblo looking nasty. Starting to develop a nice rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 That storm in CO sure looks like one HAIL of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Beau are we looking at another rain event overnight in SEMO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Nice couplet W of Sisseton, SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Updraft Propagation on the storms in the Front Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Pretty cool baro. New MCD out for a large area of the Plains. KS/MO up into NE, IA and MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Stolze Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Beau invited me over from a group on Facebook, I had posted this 12 hour pressure graph from my Davis station today in O'Fallon, MO, just west of St. Louis. The drop was after the MCS moved through this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 new tor warning in kandiyohi co., mn not an impressive t-storm but some signs of rotation right around willmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 a little bit of rotation near prinsburg, mn? i know we've got a poster on here from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 And initiation in central KS with a severe T-storm watch being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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