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June 17th-22nd severe threat


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So far it's been a cap crush job in OK. Every little promising echo has been slapped down with disdain.

I would imagine development will likely take place when the cold front, seen here in NW OK, overtakes the dryline and hits the warm sector, unless of course the cap breaks before then, which I'm a bit dubious of given the timid dCV and still rather warm H7 temps.

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I doubt that, but I wouldn't doubt the spike under the TVS symbol...

There is a nice meso above that southern reflectivity spike, so eventually I wouldn't be surprised to see it produce.

I wonder if that was more a descending reflectivity core rather than debris ball?

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There is a nice meso above that southern reflectivity spike, so eventually I wouldn't be surprised to see it produce.

I wonder if that was more a descending reflectivity core rather than debris ball?

That would be my guess, which if it's the case then it will likely produce very soon.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0535 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK INTO NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 202235Z - 210000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525

CONTINUES.

SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A QUASI-

STATIONARY DRY LINE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA

INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA

FALLS. A 40-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELD IS

ALLOWING FOR INITIATING STORMS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE DRY LINE...BUT

INHIBITION BENEATH LINGERING VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS

STILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY

MERGING WITH THE DRY LINE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ENID OKLAHOMA

AREA...BUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING /CENTERED AROUND 700 MB/ IS

JUST BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE THE DRY

LINE AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN

NOW AND 00-02Z. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE THAT STORMS REMAIN RATHER

SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH

CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE 01-03Z

TIME FRAME. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE

HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

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