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June 17th-22nd severe threat


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I think it's the first time that a PDS severe thunderstorm watch and PDS tornado watch have ever been out at the same time. Usually you need a derecho for a PDS severe thunderstorm watch and a major tornado event for a PDS tornado watch. Rarely do the two occur simultaneously, though 2/5/08 could have qualified.

Except that neither look all that likely today, which makes it all the more unusual.

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There is no standardization for a PDS. It is completely forecaster-dependent, though I know for tornado watches you usually need a 60% or higher F2+ tornado probability to see PDS.

Just like the Tornado Emergency...there needs to be some standardization with the PDS. Its starting to get a little too subjective in the last year or two. Won't be 100% objective...but we've seen a few of these situations where you can guess whether its going to be a PDS or not just by knowing the forecaster on duty...which shouldn't be the way we can make such guesses.

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quick poll of the group. when these cells merge in custer county, do they merge to an even nastier storm, smash each other to bits, or end up maybe caroming off of each other like billiard balls?

ill go nastier, at least for a bit

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