Siberian Express Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Great first post...welcome to the forum! Setting up for an intense afternoon in Nebraska. Some strong CAPE and significant LI values but what really intrigued me was the wind profile. It looks like the trough will continue to amplify throughout the afternoon due to the WAA at the surface and the CAA aloft. That means stronger PVA across the central plains which means the potential for stronger supercells if the cap holds in place long enough for discrete cells to fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 That new cell south of 80 went up fast and already svr warned and spinning nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Adam Lucio is close to the cell west of Alma, KS. Had some great shots earlier. You can see the "chaser train" on the IMap tracker..... http://www.wdtinc.com/pages/imaptracker/?REFERRER=iMapTracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 southern cell appears to be weakening, northen one strengthening. Should get a TOR on the north one shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 southern cell appears to be weakening, northen one strengthening. Should get a TOR on the north one shortly. they just issued one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=11973&C=20485&O=10237 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 the northern supercell near 80 went from nothing to full blown supercell and tornado warned in 8 scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxCZAR Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 There is a significant weakness in the windfields around 800mb that is creating a mega-kink in the hodographs east of where the current tornadic supercell is. In fact that supercell happens to be in the only area that has high enough helicity and low enough LCLs for tornadoes... kinda splitting the uprights there. I'd go ahead and argue that will be the storm of the day given the hodograph issues further east and LCL issues further south. I'm more confident than usual about this, but as always I'll put up the disclaimer that I could be wrong so you guys won't hate me if tornadoes start dropping all over the place later. I think that it looks like it will be the only storm for now, but looking at magic hour for the mid-west, about 00Z, the RUC is showing some interesting predictions. It looks like NE Nebraska will be in a region of strong upper-level divergence along with increasing helicity values. Also, at 850 hPa there is significant meridional flow which is advecting warm gulf moisture into the region. I think this will provide the necessary energy needed for a discrete cell to break the cap and verify the PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxCZAR Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I've been confused on backing and veering all this time. I used to have trouble remembering which meant WAA and which meant CAA until my professor told me to remember it by the phrase, "back in time, it was cold." So backing winds=CAA, verring winds=WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I was surprised too. Right now were still on I-80...coming into Des Moines shortly. Coming through the Council Bluffs/Omaha area now...headed towards Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 northern cell is trying to produce via cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 northern cell is trying to produce via cams. ^.. awesome video right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 From the 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 You guys called it... A PDS severe thunderstorm watch for OK and N TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for OK/TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 PDS Severe thunderstorm watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for OK/TX. Proves the Hales situation again. Winds are 80...Hail 3.5...which we've seen many...many times in the past without PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Lol wut Did they officially standardize PDS'ing thresholds today or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think it's the first time that a PDS severe thunderstorm watch and PDS tornado watch have ever been out at the same time. Usually you need a derecho for a PDS severe thunderstorm watch and a major tornado event for a PDS tornado watch. Rarely do the two occur simultaneously, though 2/5/08 could have qualified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 funnel cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 stuff trying to go up to the east now in neb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 http://content.wdtinc.com/popout/index.php?M=11973&C=20485&O=10237 cone trying to reach ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Proves the Hales situation again. Winds are 80...Hail 3.5...which we've seen many...many times in the past without PDS. Yeah, this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Lol wut Did they officially standardize PDS'ing procedures today or something? Its all Hales...King of the PDS. If it was anybody else...neither of the watches Today would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 tornado on northern cell now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 tornado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Does this mean that it's now standard that there will be a PDS added to a severe thunderstorm watch when all the hail and wind probs are high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 TOG with the cell on the stream...nice cone structure and debris field... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Does this mean that it's now standard that there will be a PDS added to a severe thunderstorm watch when all the hail and wind probs are high? There is no standardization for a PDS. It is completely forecaster-dependent, though I know for tornado watches you usually need a 60% or higher F2+ tornado probability to see PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 tornado on northern cell now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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