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June 17th-22nd severe threat


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

203 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 158 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER

RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 9 MILES

NORTH OF HILL CITY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

EDMOND...DENSMORE...CALVERT AND ALMENA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW.

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I know what your doing and love it lol temps will continue to go up too.

I think the LCL, and especially the LFC, looks rather untornado friendly.

TOP.gif

Between the attached map and the LCLs from SPC, I think the Kansas-Nebraska line may be a fair approximation of where tornadoes will happen and won't...

ttd.gif

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I would kill to be on that cell. What a beauty!

only two chasers broadcasting on it too.. rare for that area. starting the day with a biggy just after noon must be sweet...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0219 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO

SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523...

VALID 201919Z - 202045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES.

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH

AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK EXPECTED TO PERSIST/INCREASE ESPECIALLY

FROM FAR NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH MID/LATE

AFTERNOON.

AN IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES IS ONGOING IN

NORTHWEST KS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 1915Z...WITH A

LIKELY REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT INDUCED GUST ALSO NOTED PER A RECENT 46

KT WESTERLY GUST AT HLC. AS A 991 MB ANALYZED SURFACE LOW ACROSS

NORTHERN KS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...A VERY TORNADO

CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IMMEDIATELY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE

SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY A SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT

EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A NEIGHBORING

WEST-EAST WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN

NEB.

IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER

SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN

APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND

BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF

HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE

MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS

SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A

CONCERN.

..GUYER.. 06/20/2011

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Don't usually see a westward moving tornado too often

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

231 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 228 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR INDIAN HILLS

RECREATION AREA...OR 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINOT. DOPPLER RADAR

SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

INDIAN HILLS RECREATION AREA...RAUB AND DEEP WATER CREEK

RECREATION AREA.

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SPC Mesoscale discussion:

IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER

SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN

APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND

BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF

HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE

MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS

SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A

CONCERN.

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Setting up for an intense afternoon in Nebraska. Some strong CAPE and significant LI values but what really intrigued me was the wind profile. It looks like the trough will continue to amplify throughout the afternoon due to the WAA at the surface and the CAA aloft. That means stronger PVA across the central plains which means the potential for stronger supercells if the cap holds in place long enough for discrete cells to fire!

dfek4n.jpg

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB

SERN

SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO...ERN KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS

INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS

TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN NORTON CNTY KS IS MOVING NEWD IN CLOSE

PROXIMITY TO DEEP SURFACE LOW NEARING THE KS/NEB BORDER.

18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP/LMN/OUN EXHIBIT A CAPPING INVERSION

BASED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN

AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD

OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND

ADVANCING COLD FRONT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERE STORMS SHOULD

DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD INTO SRN OK AND POSSIBLY

NRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION...STRONG VERTICAL

SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY

AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WHERE BACKED

LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AND THE MODERATE

RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS ASSESSMENT.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB

SERN

SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO...ERN KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS

INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS

TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN NORTON CNTY KS IS MOVING NEWD IN CLOSE

PROXIMITY TO DEEP SURFACE LOW NEARING THE KS/NEB BORDER.

18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP/LMN/OUN EXHIBIT A CAPPING INVERSION

BASED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN

AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD

OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND

ADVANCING COLD FRONT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERE STORMS SHOULD

DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD INTO SRN OK AND POSSIBLY

NRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION...STRONG VERTICAL

SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY

AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WHERE BACKED

LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AND THE MODERATE

RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS ASSESSMENT.

Appears to be trying to go already. Cellular development from Gosper/Phelps County Nebraska down to even Saline/McPherson County, Kansas. HRRR depicted this boundary (evident on UEX 88D) to light up around 21z.

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Appears to be trying to go already. Cellular development from Gosper/Phelps County Nebraska down to even Saline/McPherson County, Kansas. HRRR depicted this boundary (evident on UEX 88D) to light up around 21z.

HRRR consistently has been firing off convection by 22z in OK

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There is a significant weakness in the windfields around 800mb that is creating a mega-kink in the hodographs east of where the current tornadic supercell is. In fact that supercell happens to be in the only area that has high enough helicity and low enough LCLs for tornadoes... kinda splitting the uprights there. I'd go ahead and argue that will be the storm of the day given the hodograph issues further east and LCL issues further south. I'm more confident than usual about this, but as always I'll put up the disclaimer that I could be wrong so you guys won't hate me if tornadoes start dropping all over the place later.

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Setting up for an intense afternoon in Nebraska. Some strong CAPE and significant LI values but what really intrigued me was the wind profile. It looks like the trough will continue to amplify throughout the afternoon due to the WAA at the surface and the CAA aloft. That means stronger PVA across the central plains which means the potential for stronger supercells if the cap holds in place long enough for discrete cells to fire!

dfek4n.jpg

I've been confused on backing and veering all this time.

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