Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know what your doing and love it lol temps will continue to go up too. no tornadoes in OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 can you say BIG hail...really a cool supercell, moisture wrapping in northwest of the sfc low and its sucking it winds from the northeast at the sfc. Also in an area of 0-6km shear of 70kts and will continue to move into a better environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 no tornadoes in OK? I'd bet on no tornadoes, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 2 tornadoes reported moving east, crossing Highway 283, per KAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 203 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... * UNTIL 230 PM CDT * AT 158 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 9 MILES NORTH OF HILL CITY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EDMOND...DENSMORE...CALVERT AND ALMENA. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 127. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know what your doing and love it lol temps will continue to go up too. I think the LCL, and especially the LFC, looks rather untornado friendly. Between the attached map and the LCLs from SPC, I think the Kansas-Nebraska line may be a fair approximation of where tornadoes will happen and won't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I would kill to be on that cell. What a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I think the LCL, and especially the LFC, looks rather untornado friendly. Between the attached map and the LCLs from SPC, I think the Kansas-Nebraska line may be a fair approximation of where tornadoes will happen and won't... completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Has anyone found a chase cam on that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 via Dick McGowan, Jay antle is reporting a wedge tornado with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I would kill to be on that cell. What a beauty! only two chasers broadcasting on it too.. rare for that area. starting the day with a biggy just after noon must be sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 via Dick McGowan, Jay antle is reporting a wedge tornado with that storm. he's with umscheid i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Multiple tornadoes reported near Edmond, one large and rain wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 My buddy Victor Gensini just reported a tornado with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 523... VALID 201919Z - 202045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES. PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TORNADO WATCH 523 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z...WITH AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO RISK EXPECTED TO PERSIST/INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM FAR NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AN IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES IS ONGOING IN NORTHWEST KS JUST NORTH OF THE HILL CITY AREA AS OF 1915Z...WITH A LIKELY REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT INDUCED GUST ALSO NOTED PER A RECENT 46 KT WESTERLY GUST AT HLC. AS A 991 MB ANALYZED SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN KS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...A VERY TORNADO CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IMMEDIATELY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY A SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND A NEIGHBORING WEST-EAST WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEB. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 sick looking cell with unique geometry on those warning boxes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 pretty cool looping the UEX radar if its a higher res and can see the moisture being wrapped around the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 You don't usually see this with Level 3 nexrad data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 sick looking cell with unique geometry on those warning boxes Looks like it's making a sharp turn north. Not surprised they put out some 'unique' geometry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Don't usually see a westward moving tornado too often BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 231 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 228 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR INDIAN HILLS RECREATION AREA...OR 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINOT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... INDIAN HILLS RECREATION AREA...RAUB AND DEEP WATER CREEK RECREATION AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 SPC Mesoscale discussion: IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL...AND PERHAPS OTHER SURFACE BASED VIGOROUS/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WILL POSE AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB FROM 20-22Z AND BEYOND. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF HOLDREGE AND KEARNEY...AND NEAR/WEST OF HASTINGS INCLUDING THE MINDEN AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The guys on it better hope more form soon. Chaser train inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'm enjoying the broken line of westward moving severe storms, north of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxCZAR Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Setting up for an intense afternoon in Nebraska. Some strong CAPE and significant LI values but what really intrigued me was the wind profile. It looks like the trough will continue to amplify throughout the afternoon due to the WAA at the surface and the CAA aloft. That means stronger PVA across the central plains which means the potential for stronger supercells if the cap holds in place long enough for discrete cells to fire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB SERN SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO...ERN KS AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN NORTON CNTY KS IS MOVING NEWD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEEP SURFACE LOW NEARING THE KS/NEB BORDER. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP/LMN/OUN EXHIBIT A CAPPING INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD INTO SRN OK AND POSSIBLY NRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AND THE MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS ASSESSMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB SERN SD...WRN IA...NWRN MO...ERN KS AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER NRN NORTON CNTY KS IS MOVING NEWD IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEEP SURFACE LOW NEARING THE KS/NEB BORDER. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS AT OAX/TOP/LMN/OUN EXHIBIT A CAPPING INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 800-700 MB. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE AND ADVANCING COLD FRONT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB SWD INTO SRN OK AND POSSIBLY NRN TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE INSTABILITY FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/ERN NEB WHERE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH...AND THE MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THIS ASSESSMENT. Appears to be trying to go already. Cellular development from Gosper/Phelps County Nebraska down to even Saline/McPherson County, Kansas. HRRR depicted this boundary (evident on UEX 88D) to light up around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Appears to be trying to go already. Cellular development from Gosper/Phelps County Nebraska down to even Saline/McPherson County, Kansas. HRRR depicted this boundary (evident on UEX 88D) to light up around 21z. HRRR consistently has been firing off convection by 22z in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 There is a significant weakness in the windfields around 800mb that is creating a mega-kink in the hodographs east of where the current tornadic supercell is. In fact that supercell happens to be in the only area that has high enough helicity and low enough LCLs for tornadoes... kinda splitting the uprights there. I'd go ahead and argue that will be the storm of the day given the hodograph issues further east and LCL issues further south. I'm more confident than usual about this, but as always I'll put up the disclaimer that I could be wrong so you guys won't hate me if tornadoes start dropping all over the place later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Setting up for an intense afternoon in Nebraska. Some strong CAPE and significant LI values but what really intrigued me was the wind profile. It looks like the trough will continue to amplify throughout the afternoon due to the WAA at the surface and the CAA aloft. That means stronger PVA across the central plains which means the potential for stronger supercells if the cap holds in place long enough for discrete cells to fire! I've been confused on backing and veering all this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 cell to the north just popped TVS. Warning anytime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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