hm8 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 30% risk expanded eastward on the new Day 2 Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 At least the view from the office isn't all bad today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 OUN HWO has some good weenie porn. Can't afford the 2% deductible for a new roof right now, so hopefully my house will avoid the baseballs. IMPACTS... STORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY PRODUCE A VERY DAMAGING COMBINATION OF HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. THE RESULT MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFTOPS...WINDOWS...AND AUTOMOBILES...AND STORMS OF THIS INTENSITY POSE A THREAT OF INJURY TO PEOPLE CAUGHT OUTDOORS. Yeah, really. Driving through East Norman yesterday, a full week after the storms, there were still plenty of trees and fences down, roofs covered in tarps, etc. Saw a flagpole bent at a 45 degree angle halfway up. Not what they need right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 100 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LARGE PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800 PM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522... DISCUSSION...INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER NCENTRAL KS WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WELL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES INCREASING THRU THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES NNE. VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY GIVEN MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030. ...HALES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The fun begins... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS... * UNTIL 200 PM CDT * AT 1254 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR QUINTER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SAINT PETER AND STUDLEY. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Definitely was surprised to see the PDS tornado watch, especially since the Day 1 Outlook tor probs don't even reach the moderate threshold - moderate risk today is for hail & wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 100 kts G2G just west of Saint Peter, with a BWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Definitely was surprised to see the PDS tornado watch, especially since the Day 1 Outlook tor probs don't even reach the moderate threshold - moderate risk today is for hail & wind. Hales watch always = PDS even when its marginal. He does it far and away more than anybody else at SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 umscheid is near the torn warn storm.. looks like he's making up for his first chasecation of the yr on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Hales watch always = PDS even when its marginal. He does it far and away more than anybody else at SPC. Unless SPC expects to up the tornado probs in 1 1/2 hours, when the new outlook comes out. Being we're already seeing a TOG, with a strong couplet, I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Definitely was surprised to see the PDS tornado watch, especially since the Day 1 Outlook tor probs don't even reach the moderate threshold - moderate risk today is for hail & wind. No kidding. I usually only see PDS tornado watches when there is at least a 15% hatched area or higher for strong tornadoes. The only other time I can remember there only being a 10% hatched area for strong tornadoes was the slight risk day of 1-7-08. I think 6-5-10 possibly may have had one but dont quote me on that. The next update might add higher probs to the tornado threat.as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 FWIW, the NSSL WRF develops convection after 22z in central-southern OK, and hits central OK, around OUN-OKC, really hard ~23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Unless SPC expects to up the tornado probs in 1 1/2 hours, when the new outlook comes out. Being we're already seeing a TOG, with a strong couplet, I wouldn't be surprised. Even if that happens the point is still really applicable. There are plenty MDT risk days with 15% hatched tor probs where we still don't see a PDS watch...even in watches that explicitly state in the discussion a few strong tornadoes may occur. Almost anybody else issuing that watch...would not have been PDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know PDS Severe T-Storm Watches are a rare thing, but does anyone think it's possible in KS/OK for later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know PDS Severe T-Storm Watches are a rare thing, but does anyone think it's possible in KS/OK for later today? IMO that would be a tornado watch, at least I would think. While low, there is still a little bit of a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know PDS Severe T-Storm Watches are a rare thing, but does anyone think it's possible in KS/OK for later today? It's possible. I've never seen one issued for hail and I'm not sure the wind threat would quite do the trick, but I wouldn't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know PDS Severe T-Storm Watches are a rare thing, but does anyone think it's possible in KS/OK for later today? There's been some discussion of that possibility, but they're usually for long duration strong derechoes, which isn't the case here. A tornado watch is most likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know PDS Severe T-Storm Watches are a rare thing, but does anyone think it's possible in KS/OK for later today? PDS can't be issued for hail (I've never seen it at least)...and usually for wind they are reserved for derechos. It will likely be strongly worded...but probably not PDS unless they want to break some new ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 It's possible. I've never seen one issued for hail and I'm not sure the wind threat would quite do the trick, but I wouldn't rule it out. To my knowledge, PDS SVR can only be issued for damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Definitely was surprised to see the PDS tornado watch, especially since the Day 1 Outlook tor probs don't even reach the moderate threshold - moderate risk today is for hail & wind. I was surprised too. Right now were still on I-80...coming into Des Moines shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 201834Z - 202030Z INCIPIENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK...AND A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CONVECTION...LIKELY JUST ABOVE AN ERODING CAP VIA IMPLIED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH-SOUTH BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK COINCIDENT WITH A DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH DEMARCATED MOIST AXIS. FURTHERMORE...A GRADUALLY INCREASING CU FIELD HAS ALSO BEEN RECENTLY NOTED WITHIN THE HOTTER/DEEPLY MIXED AIR NEAR/WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM TOPEKA KS/NORMAN OK STILL REFLECT A SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 700-750 MB...BUT CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/COOLING HAS OCCURRED BELOW THE CAP IN EACH CASE SINCE 12Z. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS ENE AND GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...AT LEAST SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK. VERY STRONG/BUT GRADUALLY BACKING FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITHIN A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MODE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE A HOT BOUNDARY LAYER/RELATIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL TEND TO CURB THE RISK...A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER PATTERN NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/OBSERVATIONAL DERIVED WINDS...IMPLIES A CONGEALING/MORE LINEAR MODE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MARKEDLY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/WATER LOADING. ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I was surprised too. Right now were still on I-80...coming into Des Moines shortly. We aren't to far behind you. Stopped and grabbed a bite to eat because we didn't think we were on a time crunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 just doing the latest synoptic analysis at the surface and aloft, and given the watch position compared to what this system did last night it's borderline pds/non-pds, but tornado is a given. but there also had better be a lot of flash flood watches in that area as well as areas near and north of this warm front and it's track. i heard of calls from listeners going 4-5+ inches from repeated storms as well as large hail. we get anything like that repeating pattern again today, especially in the missouri river system, and this could be as bad or worse than what the mississippi system had. and this water also has to head to the southern portions of the mississippi river watershed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 PDS can't be issued for hail (I've never seen it at least)...and usually for wind they are reserved for derechos. It will likely be strongly worded...but probably not PDS unless they want to break some new ground. Like you said, Hales is an extremely liberal forecaster so hard telling if he is the one issuing the watch haha jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I was surprised too. Right now were still on I-80...coming into Des Moines shortly. I'll wave as you all go by work here in West DSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN GRAHAM... SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR...SOUTHWESTERN NORTON AND NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT... AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORLAND...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEW ALMELO...LENORA AND CLAYTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 We aren't to far behind you. Stopped and grabbed a bite to eat because we didn't think we were on a time crunch. We just did the same back in Newton. Should be in Omaha in 2 1/2 hours...likely less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I know what your doing and love it lol temps will continue to go up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 That cell just west of Hill City, Kansas looks absolutely brutal, and it has already spawned a pair of tornadoes around Sheridan, KA less than an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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