Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 ...KS/OK/TX... FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING PERIOD. THIS AXIS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES. not bad.. 5% torn is better than 0% too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Hot Damn! I won't have to drive very far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 The HRRR was way too aggressive with convective development yesterday, but we certainly have more forcing helping today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 How we looking for severe weather here in SE MI the next few days. Not all that bad come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Just keeps coming down.. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1118 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1058 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S CASTLETON 39.88N 86.05W 06/20/2011 M4.26 INCH MARION IN CO-OP OBSERVER 4.26 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 6 AM. MANY ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST MARION COUNTY FLOODED INCLUDING JOHNSON RD AND THE INTERSECTION OF KESSLER AND BINFORD NEAR 59TH ST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 not bad.. 5% torn is better than 0% too. That being said, I think OKC to Wichita would be a mostly extremely large hail and damaging wind threat as highlighted above. The 25F dewpoint depressions at the surface are going to make tornadogenesis very difficult although not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Just keeps coming down.. Going to need an ark to navigate Indy at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Not sure what to make of SREF tor progs for ne IN/nw OH, but I've learned never to discount warm fronts, especially if we can clear out after morning convection. Back edge of these two morning complexes is currently near Quad Cities, but convection seems to be moving rapidly eastward. We shall see come this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 H7 temps off the 12z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 H7 temps off the 12z NAM.. That Des Moines-Storm Lake-Mason City triangle not looking that bad. Pretty torchy across Northern IL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 H7 temps off the 12z NAM.. 12z GFS lights up N Illinois pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 time to start destabilizing, going to very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Nice Gravity Waves near KC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Mod upgrade in the next day 1 update http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1316.html AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 201542Z - 201645Z CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK...DRIVEN BY POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCORPORATE MUCH OF EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK /ROUGHLY OKC METRO AND I-40 NORTH/. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 ...KS/OK/TX... FARTHER SOUTH...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW IN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING PERIOD. THIS AXIS MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES. I'll concede that the giant hail/microburst threat is good. Tornado not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'll concede that the giant hail/microburst threat is good. Tornado not so much. I'm in your boat, a friend of mine mentioned the tornado threat to me in OK today....told him I didn't think there was much of one. sfc temps going to climb into the mid 90's along and just east of the dryline later this afternoon. It's already in the mid and upper 80's east of the dryline at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 SPC to expand moderate risk area http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1316.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 201542Z - 201645Z CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK...DRIVEN BY POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADOES...WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCORPORATE MUCH OF EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OK /ROUGHLY OKC METRO AND I-40 NORTH/. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY 1630Z. ..GUYER.. 06/20/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I'll concede that the giant hail/microburst threat is good. Tornado not so much. All I ever said was a few ... which the SPC acknowledges the threat in the MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 All I ever said was a few ... which the SPC acknowledges the threat in the MD if mobile most folks would prob play elsewhere, but your commentary on it was fine imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Hatching added to the 10% tor prob area in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Hatching added to the 10% tor prob area in Nebraska. right in my BVN-SUX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Estimated 6 hour rainfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 if mobile most folks would prob play elsewhere, but your commentary on it was fine imo. Thanks. We'll see what happens. If I had the means to get further north, no doubt I would be in Nebraska. I might get out of work early today, but also it depends who's chasing. Probably confined to about 150 miles from Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Chad (WLFI) thinks we recover and turn severe later this afternoon. http://blogs.wlfi.co...11/06/20/37801/ So does the RUC. http://www.kokomo-we...rucstation=KGVS Add the SERF to that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Thanks. We'll see what happens. If I had the means to get further north, no doubt I would be in Nebraska. I might get out of work early today, but also it depends who's chasing. Probably confined to about 150 miles from Norman. you might get some great structure down there.. that cell in ks was super hot looking y-day even if it didnt produce a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 +1, no tornadoes with those LCL heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 EHI and the cape not that high here in NW Ohio for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 EHI and the cape not that high here in NW Ohio for this evening. Looks like decent recovery is possible down here in SW Ohio. Looks like some clouds are trying to clear out as the Warm Front moves in...maybe I'll have something to chase after all here in the Dayton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 OUN HWO has some good weenie porn. Can't afford the 2% deductible for a new roof right now, so hopefully my house will avoid the baseballs. IMPACTS... STORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAY PRODUCE A VERY DAMAGING COMBINATION OF HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. THE RESULT MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFTOPS...WINDOWS...AND AUTOMOBILES...AND STORMS OF THIS INTENSITY POSE A THREAT OF INJURY TO PEOPLE CAUGHT OUTDOORS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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